JAHODA

Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0x0e5b…a593 with our methodology badges per row.

0x0e5bd76779e74304d08e759072abf126d87da593·Polymarket profile ↗

Resolved trades

lifetime

PnL per $

-29%

historical realized

Win rate

69.7%

volume-weighted

Volume resolved

$4.31M

across all resolved markets

Wave-34 gate verdict: ✗ fails

The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. 83 resolved trades · -29% PnL/$. Misses the threshold; cheap-band BUYs would surface as Watch tier only.

Trades (90d)

130

Distinct markets

Volume (90d)

$6.03M

avg $46.4K / trade

BUY vs SELL

$3.82M / $2.20M

net direction

Recent trades

last 130 · 90d window

When	Market	Side	Price	Size	Methodology
Jun 10, 08:13 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	BUY NO	0.991	$297.3K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 6, 04:11 PM	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?	BUY NO	0.999	$99.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 5, 03:30 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.987	$8,372	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 5, 08:28 AM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?	SELL NO	0.986	$1,067	— (SELL)
Jun 5, 07:32 AM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.985	$82.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 3, 05:22 AM	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.997	$39.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 2, 10:50 AM	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.989	$36.4K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 2, 09:32 AM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	SELL YES	0.983	$2,816	— (SELL)
Jun 2, 09:32 AM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	SELL YES	0.983	$6,270	— (SELL)
Jun 2, 09:32 AM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	SELL YES	0.983	$12.1K	— (SELL)
Jun 2, 09:32 AM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	SELL YES	0.983	$25.1K	— (SELL)
Jun 2, 09:31 AM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?	SELL NO	0.988	$12.8K	— (SELL)
Jun 2, 07:13 AM	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.993	$169.4K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 05:08 PM	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	SELL NO	0.999	$129.4K	— (SELL)
Jun 1, 05:01 PM	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.997	$24.3K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 03:11 PM	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	SELL NO	0.544	$10.9K	— (SELL)
May 29, 03:53 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.977	$7,074	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 11:05 AM	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?	BUY NO	0.987	$12.1K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 09:01 AM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.976	$24.1K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 08:15 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	BUY NO	0.995	$19.6K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 08:10 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	BUY NO	0.995	$99.5K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 27, 11:47 AM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?	BUY NO	0.983	$26.7K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 10:22 AM	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	SELL NO	0.988	$28.0K	— (SELL)
May 26, 06:40 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	SELL NO	0.974	$4,408	— (SELL)
May 24, 01:40 PM	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	BUY NO	0.982	$11.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 24, 07:33 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	BUY NO	0.995	$19.1K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 01:43 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	BUY NO	0.990	$18.6K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 01:01 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	BUY NO	0.960	$4,147	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 01:01 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	BUY NO	0.960	$77.2K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 01:01 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	BUY NO	0.960	$77.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 21, 10:43 AM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL NO	0.740	$5,423	— (SELL)
May 21, 07:51 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	BUY NO	0.987	$30.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 20, 07:41 PM	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	SELL YES	0.670	$3,523	— (SELL)
May 20, 02:44 PM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	SELL YES	0.370	$3,437	— (SELL)
May 19, 07:03 AM	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	BUY NO	0.960	$9,801	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 19, 07:03 AM	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	BUY NO	0.960	$30.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 15, 09:36 AM	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?	BUY NO	0.989	$39.6K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 15, 07:31 AM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.978	$10.7K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 14, 07:32 PM	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	BUY NO	0.940	$47.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 13, 12:08 PM	Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	BUY NO	0.999	$1,624	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 12, 01:22 PM	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?	BUY NO	0.985	$63.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 12, 05:46 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	BUY NO	0.994	$112.4K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 11, 05:27 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	BUY NO	0.981	$34.7K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 11, 05:28 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	BUY NO	0.993	$35.1K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 10, 07:17 PM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	BUY YES	0.410	$5,384	—
May 10, 01:03 PM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	SELL YES	0.282	$1,660	— (SELL)
May 10, 12:58 PM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	SELL YES	0.300	$3,920	— (SELL)
May 10, 09:50 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	BUY NO	0.982	$16.5K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 9, 04:09 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	BUY NO	0.986	$4,366	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 9, 02:45 PM	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	BUY NO	0.950	$9,500	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 9, 08:18 AM	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	BUY NO	0.950	$38.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 8, 07:50 PM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	SELL YES	0.350	$5,612	— (SELL)
May 8, 12:59 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	BUY NO	0.978	$2,641	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 7, 03:31 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	BUY NO	0.940	$9,178	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 7, 02:15 PM	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?	BUY NO	0.970	$21.7K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 7, 10:44 AM	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?	BUY NO	0.969	$22.5K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 2, 07:06 AM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL NO	0.690	$1,270	— (SELL)
May 1, 08:45 PM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	BUY NO	0.690	$1,270	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 1, 08:43 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	BUY NO	0.930	$1,745	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 1, 08:43 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	BUY NO	0.930	$80.7K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 1, 06:18 AM	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?	BUY NO	0.969	$22.2K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 30, 08:16 PM	US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	BUY NO	0.995	$350.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 30, 08:15 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	SELL NO	0.920	$119.5K	— (SELL)
Apr 30, 08:15 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?	SELL NO	0.999	$42.9K	— (SELL)
Apr 30, 08:15 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April?	SELL NO	0.999	$37.1K	— (SELL)
Apr 30, 08:15 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	SELL NO	0.998	$116.3K	— (SELL)
Apr 29, 09:41 PM	US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	BUY NO	0.997	$299.1K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 29, 06:38 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	SELL YES	0.999	$67.4K	— (SELL)
Apr 29, 11:58 AM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.998	$87.3K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 28, 09:32 PM	Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	BUY YES	0.997	$3,194	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 28, 08:10 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	SELL YES	0.997	$445.4K	— (SELL)
Apr 28, 02:45 PM	Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	SELL YES	0.960	$54.7K	— (SELL)
Apr 28, 02:21 PM	Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	SELL YES	0.968	$26.4K	— (SELL)
Apr 28, 02:15 PM	Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	SELL YES	0.978	$22.1K	— (SELL)
Apr 28, 01:49 PM	Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	BUY YES	0.977	$50.3K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 28, 01:43 PM	Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	BUY YES	0.973	$14.6K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 28, 12:56 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	SELL YES	0.997	$199.4K	— (SELL)
Apr 25, 08:39 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	SELL NO	0.984	$29.3K	— (SELL)
Apr 25, 07:14 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	SELL NO	0.985	$29.9K	— (SELL)
Apr 24, 02:17 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	SELL NO	0.979	$26.3K	— (SELL)
Apr 20, 04:39 PM	0xc6c25c21	SELL YES	0.999	$1,394	— (SELL)
Apr 19, 06:37 AM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	BUY NO	0.680	$6,727	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 18, 12:38 PM	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by April 30?	BUY NO	0.954	$11.4K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 18, 05:36 AM	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by April 30?	SELL NO	0.953	$25.4K	— (SELL)
Apr 17, 08:36 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?	SELL YES	0.999	$9,795	— (SELL)
Apr 17, 01:19 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April?	BUY NO	0.990	$7,538	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 17, 12:53 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?	BUY YES	0.799	$19.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 17, 12:52 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?	BUY NO	0.981	$9,980	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 17, 12:50 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April?	BUY YES	0.900	$1,085	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 17, 07:45 AM	Netanyahu out by June 30?	BUY NO	0.950	$20.2K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 17, 07:44 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April?	BUY NO	0.990	$14.7K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 17, 07:44 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April?	BUY NO	0.985	$12.6K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 17, 06:14 AM	0x9823d715	SELL YES	0.999	$134.9K	— (SELL)
Apr 16, 08:58 PM	0x9823d715	SELL YES	0.998	$129.7K	— (SELL)
Apr 16, 07:59 PM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	SELL NO	0.680	$4,183	— (SELL)
Apr 16, 07:25 PM	Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	BUY YES	0.995	$1,978	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 14, 02:38 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in April?	BUY YES	0.999	$179.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 14, 11:39 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	BUY NO	0.900	$58.3K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 14, 06:52 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April?	BUY NO	0.981	$21.4K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 14, 06:51 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April?	BUY NO	0.974	$8,785	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 14, 06:42 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	BUY NO	0.980	$87.3K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 13, 05:38 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	BUY NO	0.984	$5,783	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 12, 12:29 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	BUY NO	0.973	$39.1K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 12, 09:44 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	BUY NO	0.969	$9,099	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 12, 09:15 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	BUY NO	0.967	$3,648	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 11, 07:09 AM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.980	$30.3K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 8, 05:07 PM	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	BUY YES	0.999	$9,990	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 8, 03:54 PM	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	BUY YES	0.998	$33.2K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 8, 07:26 AM	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	BUY YES	0.999	$99.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 8, 02:06 AM	0x4c5701bc	BUY YES	0.998	$22.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 8, 02:05 AM	0x4c5701bc	BUY YES	0.997	$50.6K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 7, 09:28 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	SELL NO	0.961	$96.1K	— (SELL)
Apr 7, 07:56 PM	0x4c5701bc	BUY NO	0.898	$36.7K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 7, 07:45 PM	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	SELL YES	0.996	$99.6K	— (SELL)
Apr 7, 07:44 PM	0x4c5701bc	BUY NO	0.929	$5,762	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 7, 11:12 AM	0x4c5701bc	SELL NO	0.979	$43.6K	— (SELL)
Apr 6, 08:57 PM	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	BUY YES	0.995	$142.3K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 6, 08:25 AM	US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?	SELL YES	0.270	$4,880	— (SELL)
Apr 6, 06:43 AM	US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?	SELL YES	0.270	$2,290	— (SELL)
Apr 1, 01:09 PM	US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?	SELL YES	0.360	$1,455	— (SELL)
Apr 1, 12:49 PM	US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?	SELL YES	0.370	$1,998	— (SELL)
Apr 1, 11:53 AM	US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?	BUY YES	0.350	$3,656	Killed band — neutral expectation
Apr 1, 11:44 AM	US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?	SELL YES	0.370	$5,400	— (SELL)
Apr 1, 10:34 AM	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	SELL YES	0.004	$1,049	— (SELL)
Apr 1, 08:42 AM	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	BUY NO	0.990	$198.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 28, 06:35 PM	0x77508b9c	SELL YES	0.999	$168.6K	— (SELL)
Mar 28, 10:54 AM	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	BUY NO	0.990	$30.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 27, 05:44 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.840	$1,770	Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 27, 09:49 AM	0x7cb525e8	BUY NO	0.995	$13.5K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 23, 02:30 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.864	$15.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative

Markets active in

42 markets · sorted by volume

Market	Category	Trades	Volume	Net BUY
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Finance	5	$829.8K	$-594,669
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	Other	2	$649.1K	+$649.1K
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Other	7	$419.5K	+$180.4K
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Crypto	6	$410.4K	+$129.7K
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Other	5	$385.0K	+$185.8K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	Tech	1	$297.3K	+$297.3K
0x9823d715	—	2	$264.6K	$-264,605
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	Other	5	$235.3K	+$43.1K
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Finance	2	$228.0K	+$228.0K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Tech	4	$201.8K	$-201,781
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	Finance	11	$197.0K	+$104.4K
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?	Finance	6	$181.1K	+$181.1K
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in April?	Other	1	$179.9K	+$179.9K
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Tech	7	$175.0K	+$118.9K
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?	Other	6	$171.2K	$-34,994
0x77508b9c	—	1	$168.6K	$-168,579
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	Tech	4	$161.0K	+$161.0K
0x4c5701bc	—	5	$159.5K	+$72.2K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Tech	3	$123.5K	+$114.7K
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?	Finance	1	$99.9K	+$99.9K
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April?	Other	3	$73.2K	$-934
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	Other	3	$68.5K	+$68.5K
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	Other	3	$53.9K	+$53.9K
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?	Other	2	$52.9K	$-32,933
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?	Other	2	$39.4K	+$13.9K
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by April 30?	Tech	2	$36.8K	$-13,972
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April?	Other	3	$28.9K	+$28.9K
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?	Other	2	$28.8K	+$9,174
Netanyahu out by June 30?	Other	1	$20.2K	+$20.2K
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?	Other	6	$19.7K	$-12,367

Showing top 30 by volume.