| Jul 20, 01:45 PM | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? | SELL NO | 0.996 | $19.0K | — (SELL) |
| Jul 20, 11:28 AM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY YES | 0.934 | $15.6K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 20, 11:28 AM | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY NO | 0.937 | $19.8K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 19, 11:57 AM | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY NO | 0.953 | $11.9K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 18, 07:29 AM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY YES | 0.947 | $3,522 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 17, 04:18 PM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | SELL YES | 0.955 | $126.3K | — (SELL) |
| Jul 16, 10:07 AM | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY NO | 0.997 | $299.1K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 15, 12:39 PM | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? | SELL NO | 0.998 | $141.1K | — (SELL) |
| Jul 15, 12:34 PM | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY NO | 0.996 | $199.1K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 15, 12:31 PM | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | SELL YES | 0.054 | $1,101 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 15, 12:31 PM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY YES | 0.940 | $43.4K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 15, 12:30 PM | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | SELL YES | 0.062 | $2,032 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 15, 09:56 AM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY YES | 0.930 | $28.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 15, 06:57 AM | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | SELL YES | 0.070 | $1,308 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 14, 12:53 PM | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY NO | 0.995 | $4,211 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 14, 12:47 PM | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | SELL YES | 0.064 | $2,414 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 14, 12:39 PM | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | SELL YES | 0.094 | $2,758 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 14, 12:36 PM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | SELL YES | 0.890 | $15.9K | — (SELL) |
| Jul 14, 12:32 PM | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY NO | 0.994 | $99.4K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 14, 12:32 PM | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | SELL YES | 0.130 | $2,337 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 8, 06:17 PM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | SELL YES | 0.780 | $53.7K | — (SELL) |
| Jul 8, 06:16 PM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | SELL YES | 0.780 | $14.0K | — (SELL) |
| Jul 8, 06:15 PM | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | SELL YES | 0.222 | $4,199 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 8, 06:13 PM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | SELL YES | 0.780 | $6,821 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 8, 06:13 PM | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | SELL YES | 0.226 | $2,975 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 7, 01:34 PM | Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? | BUY NO | 0.850 | $1,454 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 7, 11:19 AM | Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? | SELL NO | 0.820 | $9,748 | — (SELL) |
| Jul 7, 07:22 AM | Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? | BUY NO | 0.790 | $9,214 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 1, 04:50 PM | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY NO | 0.991 | $52.1K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jul 1, 01:41 PM | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY NO | 0.989 | $46.6K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 29, 06:58 AM | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY NO | 0.988 | $98.8K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 22, 07:52 PM | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | SELL YES | 0.245 | $12.2K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 22, 07:51 PM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | SELL YES | 0.740 | $33.5K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 22, 07:48 PM | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY NO | 0.987 | $148.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 10, 08:13 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? | BUY NO | 0.991 | $297.3K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 6, 04:11 PM | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $99.9K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 5, 03:30 PM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | BUY YES | 0.987 | $8,372 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 5, 08:28 AM | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? | SELL NO | 0.986 | $1,067 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 5, 07:32 AM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | BUY YES | 0.985 | $82.9K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 3, 05:22 AM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.997 | $39.9K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 2, 10:50 AM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.989 | $36.4K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 2, 09:32 AM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | SELL YES | 0.983 | $2,816 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 2, 09:32 AM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | SELL YES | 0.983 | $6,270 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 2, 09:32 AM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | SELL YES | 0.983 | $12.1K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 2, 09:32 AM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | SELL YES | 0.983 | $25.1K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 2, 09:31 AM | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? | SELL NO | 0.988 | $12.8K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 2, 07:13 AM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.993 | $169.4K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 05:08 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.999 | $129.4K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 1, 05:01 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.997 | $24.3K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 03:11 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.544 | $10.9K | — (SELL) |
| May 29, 03:53 PM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | BUY YES | 0.977 | $7,074 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 29, 11:05 AM | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? | BUY NO | 0.987 | $12.1K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 28, 09:01 AM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | BUY YES | 0.976 | $24.1K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 28, 08:15 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | BUY NO | 0.995 | $19.6K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 28, 08:10 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | BUY NO | 0.995 | $99.5K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 27, 11:47 AM | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? | BUY NO | 0.983 | $26.7K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 26, 10:22 AM | 0xbcacd5a0 | SELL NO | 0.988 | $28.0K | — (SELL) |
| May 26, 06:40 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | SELL NO | 0.974 | $4,408 | — (SELL) |
| May 24, 01:40 PM | 0xbcacd5a0 | BUY NO | 0.982 | $11.9K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 24, 07:33 AM | 0x1591b72d | BUY NO | 0.995 | $19.1K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 22, 01:43 PM | 0x1591b72d | BUY NO | 0.990 | $18.6K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 22, 01:01 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.960 | $4,147 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 22, 01:01 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.960 | $77.2K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 22, 01:01 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.960 | $77.9K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 21, 10:43 AM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL NO | 0.740 | $5,423 | — (SELL) |
| May 21, 07:51 AM | 0x1591b72d | BUY NO | 0.987 | $30.8K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 20, 07:41 PM | 0x6fa13f31 | SELL YES | 0.670 | $3,523 | — (SELL) |
| May 20, 02:44 PM | 0x6114a8a3 | SELL YES | 0.370 | $3,437 | — (SELL) |
| May 19, 07:03 AM | 0xbcacd5a0 | BUY NO | 0.960 | $9,801 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 19, 07:03 AM | 0xbcacd5a0 | BUY NO | 0.960 | $30.8K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 15, 09:36 AM | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? | BUY NO | 0.989 | $39.6K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 15, 07:31 AM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | BUY YES | 0.978 | $10.7K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 14, 07:32 PM | 0xbcacd5a0 | BUY NO | 0.940 | $47.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 13, 12:08 PM | Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $1,624 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 12, 01:22 PM | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? | BUY NO | 0.985 | $63.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 12, 05:46 AM | 0xffe381a8 | BUY NO | 0.994 | $112.4K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 11, 05:27 PM | 0x789c947a | BUY NO | 0.981 | $34.7K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 11, 05:28 AM | 0xffe381a8 | BUY NO | 0.993 | $35.1K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 10, 07:17 PM | 0x6114a8a3 | BUY YES | 0.410 | $5,384 | —— |
| May 10, 01:03 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.282 | $1,660 | — (SELL) |
| May 10, 12:58 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.300 | $3,920 | — (SELL) |
| May 10, 09:50 AM | 0x789c947a | BUY NO | 0.982 | $16.5K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 9, 04:09 PM | 0xffe381a8 | BUY NO | 0.986 | $4,366 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 9, 02:45 PM | 0xbcacd5a0 | BUY NO | 0.950 | $9,500 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 9, 08:18 AM | 0xbcacd5a0 | BUY NO | 0.950 | $38.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 8, 07:50 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.350 | $5,612 | — (SELL) |
| May 8, 12:59 PM | 0x789c947a | BUY NO | 0.978 | $2,641 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |