SplendidAmadeus

Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0x0dd6…5f62 with our methodology badges per row.

0x0dd60a6ddeea6f93659789cac7af6a9d12835f62·Polymarket profile ↗

Resolved trades

101

lifetime

PnL per $

-21%

historical realized

Win rate

73.7%

volume-weighted

Volume resolved

$359.9K

across all resolved markets

Wave-34 gate verdict: ✗ fails

The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. 101 resolved trades · -21% PnL/$. Misses the threshold; cheap-band BUYs would surface as Watch tier only.

Trades (90d)

200

capped at 200

Distinct markets

100

Volume (90d)

$615.5K

avg $3,078 / trade

BUY vs SELL

$410.4K / $205.2K

net direction

Recent trades

last 200 · 90d window

When	Market	Side	Price	Size	Methodology
Jul 20, 10:26 AM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?	BUY NO	0.975	$4,927	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 20, 08:24 AM	Will Tadej Pogačar win the 2026 Tour De France?	BUY YES	0.975	$1,083	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 06:55 PM	Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY NO	0.950	$7,125	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 06:54 PM	President Trump to Attend World Cup Final?	SELL YES	0.999	$19.3K	— (SELL)
Jul 19, 06:16 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	SELL YES	0.942	$1,362	— (SELL)
Jul 19, 06:16 PM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?	BUY NO	0.960	$2,880	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 06:15 PM	Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19?	SELL NO	0.738	$1,672	— (SELL)
Jul 19, 05:53 PM	Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19?	BUY NO	0.740	$1,678	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 05:39 PM	Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Belgian Grand Prix?	SELL NO	0.999	$1,224	— (SELL)
Jul 19, 02:14 PM	Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Belgian Grand Prix?	SELL YES	0.950	$2,295	— (SELL)
Jul 19, 02:12 PM	Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Belgian Grand Prix?	SELL NO	0.942	$1,354	— (SELL)
Jul 18, 11:34 PM	President Trump to Attend World Cup Final?	BUY YES	0.967	$2,268	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 18, 11:18 PM	Will Tadej Pogačar win the 2026 Tour De France?	BUY YES	0.967	$1,015	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 18, 10:52 PM	Will England win on 2026-07-18?	BUY YES	0.955	$4,838	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 18, 10:52 PM	Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL YES	0.580	$1,482	— (SELL)
Jul 18, 07:42 PM	Will England win on 2026-07-18?	BUY NO	0.770	$4,277	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 18, 06:36 AM	President Trump to Attend World Cup Final?	BUY YES	0.978	$1,155	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 17, 11:40 AM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?	SELL NO	0.977	$2,930	— (SELL)
Jul 16, 09:55 PM	Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	SELL YES	0.997	$9,970	— (SELL)
Jul 16, 03:38 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.960	$5,761	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 15, 08:12 PM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?	BUY NO	0.966	$1,336	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 15, 07:06 PM	Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.809	$2,067	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 15, 01:32 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.956	$1,023	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 14, 10:04 PM	Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	SELL YES	0.996	$1,905	— (SELL)
Jul 14, 02:43 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.940	$5,222	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 14, 08:11 AM	Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	SELL YES	0.994	$1,988	— (SELL)
Jul 12, 07:09 PM	President Trump to Attend World Cup Final?	BUY YES	0.920	$2,760	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 12, 12:18 AM	Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.985	$9,850	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 12, 12:17 AM	Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	SELL YES	0.993	$7,944	— (SELL)
Jul 11, 11:58 PM	Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.985	$6,403	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 11, 11:56 PM	Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	SELL NO	0.999	$2,116	— (SELL)
Jul 11, 11:14 PM	Will Switzerland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	BUY NO	0.931	$2,346	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 11, 08:06 PM	Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY NO	0.910	$2,093	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 11, 08:05 PM	Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?	BUY NO	0.772	$1,159	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 10, 10:43 PM	Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026?	BUY NO	0.930	$3,255	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 10, 08:52 PM	Will Spain win on 2026-07-10?	BUY YES	0.900	$1,230	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 10, 05:25 PM	Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.979	$10.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 10, 11:34 AM	Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026?	BUY NO	0.910	$3,185	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 9, 09:50 PM	Will Tadej Pogačar win the 2026 Tour De France?	SELL YES	0.910	$2,076	— (SELL)
Jul 9, 07:32 AM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	BUY NO	0.840	$1,778	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 8, 10:50 AM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	BUY NO	0.860	$2,866	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 8, 10:36 AM	Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	BUY YES	0.988	$1,472	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 8, 06:46 AM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	SELL YES	0.770	$13.9K	— (SELL)
Jul 7, 07:50 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	SELL YES	0.820	$1,640	— (SELL)
Jul 7, 04:50 PM	Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 July 6-12?	SELL NO	0.980	$1,632	— (SELL)
Jul 6, 08:54 PM	Will Spain win on 2026-07-06?	BUY YES	0.900	$2,025	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 5, 05:00 PM	Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.967	$8,220	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 5, 04:59 PM	Will Tadej Pogačar win the 2026 Tour De France?	BUY YES	0.810	$1,487	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 4, 08:45 PM	Paraguay leading at halftime?	BUY NO	0.940	$5,222	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 4, 04:24 PM	Will Canada win on 2026-07-04?	BUY NO	0.830	$4,150	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 4, 07:26 AM	Will Canada win on 2026-07-04?	BUY NO	0.830	$2,075	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 3, 08:02 PM	Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 British Grand Prix?	SELL NO	0.863	$1,413	— (SELL)
Jul 3, 07:58 PM	Will Australia vs. Egypt end in a draw?	SELL YES	0.990	$1,968	— (SELL)
Jul 3, 07:55 PM	Will Australia vs. Egypt end in a draw?	BUY YES	0.666	$1,199	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 3, 03:38 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.920	$10.6K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 3, 04:01 AM	Will Algeria win on 2026-07-02?	BUY NO	0.920	$2,351	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 2, 09:07 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.900	$7,650	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 2, 06:56 PM	Will Austria win on 2026-07-02?	BUY NO	0.912	$2,966	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 1, 09:50 PM	Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01?	SELL NO	0.985	$5,034	— (SELL)
Jul 1, 09:20 PM	Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01?	BUY NO	0.973	$3,022	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 30, 09:54 AM	Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	BUY YES	0.982	$1,964	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 29, 09:30 PM	Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29?	SELL NO	0.720	$2,400	— (SELL)
Jun 29, 08:26 PM	Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29?	BUY NO	0.920	$3,066	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 28, 12:13 PM	Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28?	BUY NO	0.850	$3,400	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 28, 03:47 AM	Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27?	SELL NO	0.920	$1,564	— (SELL)
Jun 27, 10:53 PM	Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27?	BUY YES	0.960	$2,012	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 27, 10:31 PM	Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	BUY YES	0.979	$1,441	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 27, 10:21 PM	Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.930	$1,511	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 27, 08:38 PM	Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL YES	0.863	$2,588	— (SELL)
Jun 27, 07:44 PM	Will Panama win on 2026-06-27?	BUY NO	0.960	$9,617	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 27, 10:17 AM	Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.830	$1,038	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 26, 09:36 PM	Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.784	$1,019	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 26, 06:48 PM	Will Norway win on 2026-06-26?	BUY NO	0.890	$2,448	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 25, 07:24 PM	Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25?	BUY NO	0.945	$7,559	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 25, 12:03 AM	Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24?	BUY NO	0.840	$2,167	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 24, 11:46 PM	Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	BUY YES	0.890	$1,113	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 24, 11:40 PM	Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	BUY YES	0.870	$1,871	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 24, 11:06 PM	Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24?	SELL NO	0.880	$3,960	— (SELL)
Jun 24, 09:48 PM	Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24?	BUY NO	0.930	$2,790	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 24, 09:46 PM	Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24?	BUY NO	0.920	$2,530	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 24, 09:01 PM	Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24?	BUY NO	0.940	$7,050	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 24, 05:36 PM	Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24?	BUY NO	0.890	$2,274	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 24, 02:06 PM	Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24?	BUY NO	0.890	$4,944	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 23, 04:14 PM	Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.830	$2,075	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 23, 04:12 PM	Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY YES	0.830	$1,453	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 23, 01:18 PM	Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.950	$7,600	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 23, 11:11 AM	Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23?	BUY NO	0.950	$7,125	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 22, 09:27 PM	Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23?	BUY NO	0.940	$11.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 22, 09:01 PM	Will France win on 2026-06-22?	BUY YES	0.910	$3,413	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 22, 02:41 PM	Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY NO	0.870	$1,088	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 22, 02:41 PM	Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY NO	0.869	$1,334	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 22, 02:40 PM	Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22?	BUY NO	0.973	$3,406	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 22, 09:34 AM	Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 22-28?	BUY NO	0.830	$1,660	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 21, 11:53 PM	Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	BUY YES	0.940	$1,718	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 21, 11:42 PM	Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.870	$1,087	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 21, 11:19 PM	Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	SELL YES	0.990	$3,723	— (SELL)
Jun 21, 10:24 PM	Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY NO	0.890	$1,780	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 21, 10:17 PM	Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22?	BUY NO	0.971	$2,677	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 21, 05:53 PM	Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score	SELL NO	0.940	$1,044	— (SELL)
Jun 21, 03:12 PM	Saudi Arabia leading at halftime?	SELL NO	0.954	$2,429	— (SELL)
Jun 21, 03:04 PM	Saudi Arabia leading at halftime?	BUY NO	0.956	$3,609	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 20, 10:52 PM	Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21?	BUY NO	0.880	$1,804	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 20, 09:58 PM	Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY YES	0.970	$5,620	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 13, 06:35 AM	Starmer out by June 15, 2026?	SELL NO	0.997	$2,271	— (SELL)
Jun 12, 09:35 PM	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.840	$1,470	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 09:34 PM	Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12?	SELL NO	0.750	$1,916	— (SELL)
Jun 11, 11:25 PM	Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14?	BUY NO	0.890	$3,164	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 08:33 PM	Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12?	BUY NO	0.780	$1,993	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 06:05 PM	Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11?	BUY NO	0.900	$6,750	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 08:45 PM	0xc4c3dbcc	BUY YES	0.890	$2,448	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 11:01 PM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	BUY NO	0.963	$1,902	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 09:49 PM	Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	BUY YES	0.850	$1,327	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 09:49 PM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	BUY NO	0.961	$1,533	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 5, 10:47 PM	Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	BUY NO	0.974	$3,019	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 4, 09:48 PM	Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	BUY NO	0.979	$4,894	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 4, 12:50 PM	Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	BUY NO	0.974	$2,331	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 2, 08:45 AM	0x40d85bb0	BUY NO	0.965	$2,026	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 01:11 PM	Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the June 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.962	$1,438	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 10:46 PM	0xb7dd41c1	BUY NO	0.989	$7,419	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 06:37 PM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	BUY NO	0.963	$1,872	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 30, 12:21 PM	0x9a87a001	BUY NO	0.968	$3,386	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 30, 12:21 PM	0xe0b6f4d4	SELL NO	0.989	$5,517	— (SELL)
May 29, 09:36 PM	0x9a87a001	BUY NO	0.961	$1,922	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 09:58 AM	0xd3990526	BUY NO	0.935	$3,506	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 27, 06:54 AM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	BUY YES	0.230	$1,000	Cheap band — no rep
May 26, 09:08 PM	0xa1d97efb	SELL NO	0.983	$6,921	— (SELL)
May 26, 05:05 PM	0x9a87a001	BUY NO	0.914	$1,371	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 08:42 AM	0xa1d97efb	SELL NO	0.989	$2,967	— (SELL)
May 25, 06:23 PM	0x09148e8a	BUY NO	0.890	$1,264	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 10:59 AM	0xa1d97efb	SELL NO	0.985	$4,377	— (SELL)
May 24, 01:52 PM	0x13ec2896	SELL YES	0.680	$1,133	— (SELL)
May 24, 01:06 PM	0x13ec2896	BUY YES	0.700	$1,166	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 06:12 PM	0x79985965	SELL NO	0.840	$1,008	— (SELL)
May 23, 05:48 PM	0x79985965	BUY NO	0.870	$2,784	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 05:29 PM	Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23?	BUY YES	0.700	$1,166	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 11:51 AM	0x58078283	SELL NO	0.980	$2,744	— (SELL)
May 23, 11:41 AM	0x4ba34832	BUY NO	0.715	$1,286	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 11:13 AM	0xe0b6f4d4	SELL NO	0.958	$1,916	— (SELL)
May 22, 08:48 PM	0x4ba34832	SELL NO	0.780	$1,950	— (SELL)
May 22, 08:12 PM	0x09148e8a	BUY NO	0.929	$2,773	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 10:00 AM	0x4ba34832	BUY NO	0.920	$1,840	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 09:59 AM	0xde5ed16b	SELL NO	0.980	$1,961	— (SELL)
May 22, 07:07 AM	0x4ba34832	BUY NO	0.900	$2,250	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 21, 11:18 PM	0x4ba34832	BUY NO	0.850	$1,700	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 21, 11:17 PM	0x098afead	SELL NO	0.982	$1,906	— (SELL)
May 21, 12:07 PM	0x098afead	BUY NO	0.970	$1,455	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 21, 07:52 AM	0xdb22a774	BUY NO	0.780	$1,064	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 20, 02:39 PM	0xa1d97efb	BUY NO	0.963	$2,140	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 20, 02:38 PM	0xaa145cf5	SELL NO	0.993	$6,951	— (SELL)
May 20, 02:17 PM	0x098afead	BUY NO	0.940	$1,410	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 20, 01:47 PM	0xaa145cf5	SELL NO	0.994	$2,982	— (SELL)
May 20, 12:08 PM	0x098afead	SELL NO	0.870	$1,305	— (SELL)
May 20, 11:39 AM	0xa1d97efb	BUY NO	0.956	$1,484	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 20, 07:47 AM	0x098afead	BUY NO	0.870	$3,045	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 19, 09:24 PM	0x58078283	BUY NO	0.890	$2,492	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 19, 07:26 PM	0x098afead	SELL NO	0.800	$1,480	— (SELL)
May 19, 07:24 PM	0xcba24842	BUY YES	0.920	$2,424	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 19, 06:28 PM	0x098afead	BUY NO	0.840	$1,554	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 19, 12:24 PM	0xcba24842	BUY YES	0.870	$2,436	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 19, 09:49 AM	0xa1d97efb	BUY NO	0.962	$1,010	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 19, 09:49 AM	0x69487ec6	SELL NO	0.993	$2,483	— (SELL)
May 18, 09:12 PM	0xbd5922ee	BUY NO	0.987	$1,504	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 18, 08:58 PM	0x95819f16	SELL YES	0.999	$3,996	— (SELL)
May 18, 03:11 PM	0x95819f16	BUY YES	0.900	$2,790	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 18, 03:04 PM	0xde5ed16b	SELL NO	0.930	$1,395	— (SELL)
May 18, 01:12 PM	0xaa145cf5	BUY NO	0.978	$1,956	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 18, 09:02 AM	0xe0b6f4d4	BUY NO	0.860	$1,290	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 17, 09:48 PM	0xbd5922ee	BUY NO	0.956	$2,790	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 17, 09:36 PM	0xbd5922ee	SELL NO	0.951	$6,003	— (SELL)
May 17, 09:34 PM	0xbd5922ee	SELL NO	0.952	$1,493	— (SELL)
May 16, 11:36 PM	0xff081c52	SELL YES	0.999	$20.0K	— (SELL)
May 16, 10:58 PM	0xff081c52	BUY YES	0.993	$3,423	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 16, 08:15 PM	0x458e8339	BUY YES	0.890	$1,061	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 16, 03:28 PM	0x8fa4e4e7	SELL NO	0.830	$1,287	— (SELL)
May 16, 12:34 PM	Will Greece win Eurovision 2026?	BUY NO	0.942	$1,362	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 16, 11:41 AM	0x8fa4e4e7	BUY NO	0.800	$1,240	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 16, 11:40 AM	Will Greece win Eurovision 2026?	BUY NO	0.942	$3,697	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 16, 11:16 AM	0x9c55cf66	BUY YES	0.930	$1,837	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 15, 10:36 AM	0xb24aa722	BUY NO	0.977	$1,954	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 15, 10:35 AM	0xde5ed16b	SELL NO	0.950	$1,780	— (SELL)
May 14, 08:40 PM	0xb24aa722	BUY NO	0.975	$3,900	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 14, 03:01 PM	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	BUY NO	0.964	$1,718	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 14, 07:52 AM	0xb24aa722	BUY NO	0.975	$2,340	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 14, 07:52 AM	0xa1d97efb	SELL NO	0.948	$2,388	— (SELL)
May 13, 04:30 PM	0xa1d97efb	SELL NO	0.945	$1,890	— (SELL)
May 12, 05:52 PM	Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?	SELL NO	0.570	$2,850	— (SELL)
May 12, 05:22 PM	0xb24aa722	BUY NO	0.950	$4,750	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 12, 12:01 PM	0x65f204a8	SELL YES	0.994	$1,988	— (SELL)
May 12, 09:57 AM	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	BUY NO	0.878	$1,603	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 11, 04:43 PM	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	SELL NO	0.920	$3,684	— (SELL)
May 11, 11:06 AM	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	BUY NO	0.938	$2,464	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 10, 01:05 PM	0x65f204a8	BUY YES	0.920	$1,380	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 9, 11:07 AM	0xa1d97efb	BUY NO	0.960	$1,874	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 9, 07:17 AM	0x65f204a8	BUY YES	0.940	$2,350	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 9, 05:45 AM	0xa93b28a6	SELL YES	0.999	$1,499	— (SELL)
May 8, 10:21 PM	0x2135ffcb	BUY NO	0.990	$2,475	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 8, 10:20 PM	0x2135ffcb	BUY NO	0.989	$1,448	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 8, 07:45 PM	0xb24aa722	BUY NO	0.880	$1,760	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 8, 07:24 PM	0xa93b28a6	SELL NO	0.726	$1,088	— (SELL)
May 8, 07:21 PM	0xa93b28a6	SELL NO	0.751	$1,126	— (SELL)

Markets active in

100 markets · sorted by volume

Market	Category	Trades	Volume	Net BUY
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Finance	8	$47.1K	+$13.4K
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?	Other	8	$28.4K	$-15,212
President Trump to Attend World Cup Final?	Politics	4	$25.5K	$-13,167
0xa1d97efb	—	9	$25.1K	$-12,035
0xff081c52	—	2	$23.4K	$-16,557
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23?	Other	2	$18.9K	+$18.9K
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Other	2	$16.3K	+$16.3K
0xb24aa722	—	5	$14.7K	+$14.7K
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24?	Tech	3	$13.8K	+$5,880
0x098afead	—	7	$12.2K	+$2,773
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?	Other	4	$12.1K	+$6,213
0xaa145cf5	—	3	$11.9K	$-7,977
0xbd5922ee	—	4	$11.8K	$-3,201
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Other	3	$11.7K	+$6,522
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Other	1	$10.9K	+$10.9K
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	Politics	3	$10.2K	+$10.2K
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27?	Other	1	$9,617	+$9,617
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	Other	4	$9,468	+$2,101
Will England win on 2026-07-18?	Other	2	$9,115	+$9,115
0x4ba34832	—	5	$9,026	+$5,126
0xe0b6f4d4	—	3	$8,724	$-6,144
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Other	1	$8,220	+$8,220
Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01?	Other	2	$8,056	$-2,012
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25?	Other	1	$7,559	+$7,559
0xb7dd41c1	—	1	$7,419	+$7,419
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24?	Other	2	$7,218	+$7,218
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	Other	1	$7,125	+$7,125
0x95819f16	—	2	$6,786	$-1,206
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11?	Other	1	$6,750	+$6,750
0x9a87a001	—	3	$6,679	+$6,679

Showing top 30 by volume.