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uncleroger

Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0x0aae…251c with our methodology badges per row.

0x0aae5c4ec45339a64a1dd2fe4ba98c2a19eb251c·Polymarket profile ↗
Resolved trades
22
lifetime
PnL per $
-12%
historical realized
Win rate
81.2%
volume-weighted
Volume resolved
$172.6K
across all resolved markets
Wave-34 gate verdict: ✗ fails

The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. 22 resolved trades · -12% PnL/$. Misses the threshold; cheap-band BUYs would surface as Watch tier only.

Trades (90d)
37
Distinct markets
20
Volume (90d)
$237.1K
avg $6,407 / trade
BUY vs SELL
$161.5K / $75.5K
net direction

Recent trades

last 37 · 90d window
WhenMarketSidePriceSizeMethodology
Jul 14, 01:02 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.940$39.6KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 13, 04:16 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?SELL YES0.720$19.0K— (SELL)
Jul 12, 04:02 PMWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?BUY NO0.796$10.3KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jul 12, 04:01 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.800$7,480Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 8, 02:54 AMWill Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?SELL NO0.953$4,268— (SELL)
Jul 8, 02:54 AMWill Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?SELL NO0.928$13.1K— (SELL)
Jul 8, 02:54 AMFed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?SELL NO0.987$4,290— (SELL)
Jul 8, 02:52 AMWill Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?SELL NO0.935$2,456— (SELL)
Jul 8, 02:52 AMFed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?SELL NO0.989$5,009— (SELL)
Jul 8, 02:50 AMWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?SELL NO0.920$4,600— (SELL)
Jul 8, 02:49 AMWill Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?SELL NO0.955$1,952— (SELL)
Jul 8, 02:49 AMFed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?SELL NO0.945$1,652— (SELL)
Jul 8, 02:48 AMWill Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?SELL NO0.936$1,760— (SELL)
Jul 7, 01:48 AMWill Belgium win on 2026-07-06?BUY YES0.970$1,920Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 7, 01:31 AMWill Belgium win on 2026-07-06?BUY YES0.940$2,820Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 7, 01:29 AMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.850$8,500Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 6, 02:18 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.880$8,800Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 4, 11:03 PMExact Score: Paraguay 0 - 1 France?BUY YES0.900$2,500Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 4, 11:03 PMExact Score: Paraguay 0 - 1 France?BUY YES0.887$2,500Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 4, 11:02 PMWill France win on 2026-07-04?BUY YES0.920$4,849Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 3, 10:53 AMWill 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?BUY NO0.870$1,305Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 3, 10:52 AMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.910$9,100Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 1, 02:38 PMWill Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?SELL NO0.920$9,200— (SELL)
Jun 26, 04:31 AMFed rate hike in 2026?SELL YES0.520$2,212— (SELL)
Jun 25, 02:18 PMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?SELL NO0.841$2,103— (SELL)
Jun 21, 07:49 PMWill China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?BUY NO0.997$9,970Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 21, 07:48 PMWill the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?BUY NO0.997$15.0KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 21, 07:48 PMWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?BUY NO0.910$4,550Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 21, 07:46 PMWill Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?BUY NO0.930$9,300Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 21, 07:44 PMFed rate hike in 2026?BUY YES0.620$1,860Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 21, 07:41 PMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?BUY NO0.940$2,350Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 20, 09:06 PMWill the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?BUY NO0.996$3,831Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 04:23 PMWill Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?BUY NO0.924$4,338Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 04:22 PMWill the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?SELL YES0.989$1,958— (SELL)
Jun 12, 04:22 PMWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?SELL NO0.800$2,000— (SELL)
Jun 12, 04:21 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.994$6,461Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 05:39 PMTrump out as President by June 30?BUY NO0.989$4,202Above conviction band — net-negative

Markets active in

20 markets · sorted by volume
MarketCategoryTradesVolumeNet BUY
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Finance6$92.5K+$54.5K
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?Crypto4$21.6K$-12,929
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?Other2$18.8K+$18.8K
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Politics2$18.5K+$100
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Finance1$10.3K+$10.3K
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?Tech1$9,970+$9,970
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?Finance2$9,299$-9,299
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Other2$9,150$-50
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?Finance1$6,461+$6,461
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?Politics2$6,220$-6,220
Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 1 France?Other2$5,000+$5,000
Will France win on 2026-07-04?Other1$4,849+$4,849
Will Belgium win on 2026-07-06?Other2$4,740+$4,740
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Tech2$4,453+$247
Trump out as President by June 30?Politics1$4,202+$4,202
Fed rate hike in 2026?Finance2$4,072$-352
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Other1$2,000$-2,000
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?Other1$1,958$-1,958
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?Finance1$1,652$-1,652
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?Finance1$1,305+$1,305