0x09beD1976600971Fd9f9Db454a9c302C7A559c32-1779171276281

Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0x09be…9c32 with our methodology badges per row.

0x09bed1976600971fd9f9db454a9c302c7a559c32·Polymarket profile ↗

Resolved trades

122

lifetime

PnL per $

-3%

historical realized

Win rate

91.3%

volume-weighted

Volume resolved

$778.8K

across all resolved markets

Wave-34 gate verdict: ✗ fails

The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. 122 resolved trades · -3% PnL/$. Misses the threshold; cheap-band BUYs would surface as Watch tier only.

Trades (90d)

131

Distinct markets

Volume (90d)

$813.2K

avg $6,208 / trade

BUY vs SELL

$742.8K / $70.4K

net direction

Recent trades

last 131 · 90d window

When	Market	Side	Price	Size	Methodology
Jul 20, 06:54 AM	Will Tadej Pogačar win the 2026 Tour De France?	BUY YES	0.974	$5,411	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 09:57 PM	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.934	$1,803	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 09:56 PM	Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	SELL NO	0.670	$1,693	— (SELL)
Jul 19, 09:54 PM	Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	SELL NO	0.671	$3,097	— (SELL)
Jul 19, 09:46 PM	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.909	$8,632	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 09:46 PM	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.916	$13.7K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 09:46 PM	Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19?	SELL NO	0.998	$29.9K	— (SELL)
Jul 19, 09:45 PM	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.930	$1,581	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 09:44 PM	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.942	$37.7K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 09:20 PM	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL YES	0.695	$6,950	— (SELL)
Jul 19, 09:17 PM	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL YES	0.709	$7,090	— (SELL)
Jul 19, 07:08 PM	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.585	$2,364	—
Jul 19, 05:47 PM	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.592	$20.4K	—
Jul 19, 05:46 PM	Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Belgian Grand Prix?	SELL YES	0.999	$19.4K	— (SELL)
Jul 19, 02:01 PM	Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Belgian Grand Prix?	BUY YES	0.457	$1,788	—
Jul 19, 12:41 PM	Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Belgian Grand Prix?	BUY NO	0.920	$2,502	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 18, 02:28 PM	Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Belgian Grand Prix?	BUY NO	0.986	$1,014	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 18, 05:39 AM	Will Isaac del Toro win the 2026 Tour De France?	BUY NO	0.994	$1,953	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 14, 08:03 PM	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.367	$6,318	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 14, 10:24 AM	World Cup: Unbeaten Champion?	BUY YES	0.999	$3,095	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 13, 04:08 AM	Will Paul Seixas win the 2026 Tour De France?	BUY NO	0.994	$1,988	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 12, 08:49 AM	Will Florian Lipowitz win the 2026 Tour De France?	BUY NO	0.998	$4,470	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 12, 08:48 AM	Will Juan Ayuso win the 2026 Tour De France?	BUY NO	0.997	$4,184	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 12, 08:35 AM	Will Paul Seixas win the 2026 Tour De France?	BUY NO	0.995	$9,891	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 12, 08:35 AM	Will Remco Evenepoel win the 2026 Tour De France?	BUY NO	0.993	$1,774	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 12, 12:11 AM	Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.985	$107.6K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 11, 07:06 AM	Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.942	$17.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 11, 07:05 AM	Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.984	$17.2K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 11, 05:25 AM	Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.941	$17.2K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 11, 05:22 AM	Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.984	$17.2K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 10, 06:04 PM	Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.979	$8,110	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 10, 12:40 PM	Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.982	$4,057	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 10, 11:31 AM	Will Arthur Fery be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?	BUY NO	0.976	$4,518	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 10, 08:32 AM	Will Arthur Fery be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?	BUY NO	0.974	$3,279	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 10, 04:23 AM	Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.981	$4,002	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 10, 04:22 AM	Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.942	$4,004	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 10, 04:15 AM	Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.979	$8,008	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 10, 04:14 AM	Will Arthur Fery be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?	BUY NO	0.972	$1,627	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 8, 06:31 AM	Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.941	$1,252	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 8, 06:30 AM	Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.970	$1,251	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 8, 06:30 AM	Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.970	$1,251	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 8, 06:30 AM	Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.976	$1,249	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 8, 06:30 AM	Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.978	$1,252	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 8, 04:10 AM	Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.941	$3,501	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 8, 04:10 AM	Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.977	$5,002	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 8, 04:09 AM	Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.978	$5,007	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 8, 04:09 AM	Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.941	$3,011	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 8, 12:21 AM	Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.971	$5,001	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 8, 12:21 AM	Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.976	$5,007	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 8, 12:20 AM	Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.979	$5,003	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 7, 04:53 PM	Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.993	$2,006	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 7, 06:00 AM	Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.971	$2,428	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 7, 06:00 AM	Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.978	$1,252	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 6, 07:28 AM	Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.991	$5,005	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 6, 07:28 AM	Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.987	$5,004	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 6, 07:26 AM	Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.969	$2,500	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 6, 07:26 AM	Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.969	$2,500	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 6, 07:26 AM	Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.968	$5,005	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 6, 07:25 AM	Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.953	$5,003	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 6, 07:21 AM	Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.998	$4,990	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 6, 04:14 AM	Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.998	$1,148	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 6, 04:13 AM	Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.998	$4,990	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 5, 07:37 AM	Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.988	$1,003	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 5, 07:37 AM	Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.972	$1,001	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 5, 07:23 AM	Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.984	$1,004	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 5, 07:23 AM	Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.976	$1,005	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 5, 07:15 AM	Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.969	$2,607	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 5, 07:14 AM	Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.976	$1,825	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 5, 07:13 AM	Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.972	$1,876	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 5, 07:09 AM	Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.984	$1,870	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 5, 07:07 AM	Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.934	$2,802	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 5, 07:05 AM	Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.967	$1,209	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 5, 07:04 AM	Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.999	$4,995	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 4, 11:16 PM	Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.967	$4,835	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 4, 11:16 PM	Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.969	$4,845	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 4, 11:16 PM	Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.977	$4,885	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 4, 11:16 PM	Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.987	$4,935	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 4, 11:16 PM	Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.977	$4,885	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 4, 11:14 PM	Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.999	$4,995	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 4, 02:57 AM	Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.983	$2,757	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 4, 02:56 AM	Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.975	$1,463	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 4, 02:55 AM	Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.970	$1,455	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 4, 02:55 AM	Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.998	$1,996	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 4, 02:55 AM	Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.990	$4,950	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 4, 02:55 AM	Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.983	$2,949	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 4, 02:55 AM	Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.976	$2,928	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 4, 02:54 AM	Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.975	$2,438	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 4, 02:54 AM	Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.970	$1,940	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 4, 02:54 AM	Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.967	$3,385	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 3, 10:41 AM	Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.988	$2,470	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 3, 10:41 AM	Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.976	$2,440	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 3, 10:40 AM	Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.976	$2,928	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 3, 10:40 AM	Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.969	$2,907	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 3, 10:40 AM	Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.975	$5,002	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 3, 10:39 AM	Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.975	$3,003	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 3, 10:39 AM	Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.976	$2,996	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 3, 10:38 AM	Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.976	$3,006	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 3, 10:37 AM	Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.988	$4,999	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 3, 10:36 AM	Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.982	$10.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 3, 10:35 AM	Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.969	$5,000	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 3, 10:33 AM	Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.999	$25.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 3, 10:32 AM	Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.998	$25.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 3, 10:31 AM	Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.938	$5,000	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 3, 10:29 AM	Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.999	$12.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 3, 05:54 AM	Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.999	$3,218	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 3, 05:40 AM	Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.999	$9,990	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 3, 05:40 AM	Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.999	$9,990	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 3, 05:39 AM	Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.976	$2,440	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 3, 05:35 AM	Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-07-03?	BUY NO	0.962	$1,000	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 3, 02:50 AM	Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.994	$4,970	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 2, 09:29 PM	Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.993	$1,973	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 2, 10:01 AM	Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.976	$4,802	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 2, 10:00 AM	Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.998	$4,800	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 2, 09:59 AM	Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.985	$4,802	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 2, 09:59 AM	Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.981	$4,802	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 2, 09:59 AM	Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.975	$4,802	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 2, 09:58 AM	Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.973	$4,807	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 2, 09:57 AM	Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.966	$4,801	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 2, 09:56 AM	Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.997	$22.2K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 2, 09:55 AM	Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.993	$10,000	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 2, 09:12 AM	Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.999	$9,990	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 2, 09:12 AM	Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.999	$9,990	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 30, 08:36 AM	Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.981	$1,380	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 29, 07:50 PM	Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.988	$2,297	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 29, 07:49 PM	Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL NO	0.999	$2,298	— (SELL)
Jun 29, 01:00 PM	Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29?	BUY NO	0.910	$1,001	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 29, 07:37 AM	Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.989	$1,484	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 29, 07:36 AM	Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.987	$1,283	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 29, 07:35 AM	Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.977	$1,006	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 26, 05:45 PM	Will Norway win on 2026-06-26?	BUY NO	0.870	$1,305	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 22, 07:22 PM	Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22?	BUY NO	0.975	$1,004	Above conviction band — net-negative

Markets active in

34 markets · sorted by volume

Market	Category	Trades	Volume	Net BUY
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Other	12	$183.3K	+$183.3K
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Tech	10	$106.5K	+$78.5K
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Other	14	$75.8K	+$75.8K
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Other	14	$58.1K	+$58.1K
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Other	8	$35.1K	+$35.1K
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Other	13	$34.1K	+$34.1K
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19?	Other	1	$29.9K	$-29,925
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Other	2	$29.8K	+$29.8K
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Other	10	$29.5K	+$29.5K
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Other	9	$29.0K	+$29.0K
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Other	3	$25.2K	+$25.2K
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Other	1	$25.0K	+$25.0K
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Other	1	$22.2K	+$22.2K
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Other	6	$22.1K	+$22.1K
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Other	2	$20.0K	+$20.0K
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Belgian Grand Prix?	Other	1	$19.4K	$-19,395
Will Paul Seixas win the 2026 Tour De France?	Other	2	$11.9K	+$11.9K
Will Arthur Fery be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?	Other	3	$9,423	+$9,423
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Other	2	$7,802	+$7,802
Will Tadej Pogačar win the 2026 Tour De France?	Other	1	$5,411	+$5,411
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	Politics	2	$4,790	$-4,790
Will Florian Lipowitz win the 2026 Tour De France?	Other	1	$4,470	+$4,470
Will Juan Ayuso win the 2026 Tour De France?	Other	1	$4,184	+$4,184
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Other	2	$3,781	$-814
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion?	Other	1	$3,095	+$3,095
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Belgian Grand Prix?	Other	1	$2,502	+$2,502
Will Isaac del Toro win the 2026 Tour De France?	Other	1	$1,953	+$1,953
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Belgian Grand Prix?	Other	1	$1,788	+$1,788
Will Remco Evenepoel win the 2026 Tour De France?	Other	1	$1,774	+$1,774
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26?	Other	1	$1,305	+$1,305

Showing top 30 by volume.