MenacingTurtle

Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0x0121…f722 with our methodology badges per row.

0x012117729450d19b22018ad8c6e9357bcd34f722·Polymarket profile ↗

Resolved trades

230

lifetime

PnL per $

-9%

historical realized

Win rate

70.6%

volume-weighted

Volume resolved

$971.6K

across all resolved markets

Wave-34 gate verdict: ✗ fails

The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. 230 resolved trades · -9% PnL/$. Misses the threshold; cheap-band BUYs would surface as Watch tier only.

Trades (90d)

200

capped at 200

Distinct markets

Volume (90d)

$918.8K

avg $4,594 / trade

BUY vs SELL

$685.9K / $232.9K

net direction

Recent trades

last 200 · 90d window

When	Market	Side	Price	Size	Methodology
Jul 19, 09:42 PM	Will Argentina win the World Cup?	BUY YES	0.210	$4,190	Cheap band — no rep
Jul 19, 09:42 PM	Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.210	$3,392	Cheap band — no rep
Jul 19, 09:27 PM	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL YES	0.748	$11.9K	— (SELL)
Jul 19, 09:27 PM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL NO	0.741	$6,369	— (SELL)
Jul 19, 09:26 PM	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL YES	0.771	$10.8K	— (SELL)
Jul 19, 09:26 PM	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL YES	0.761	$14.2K	— (SELL)
Jul 19, 09:26 PM	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL YES	0.789	$3,787	— (SELL)
Jul 19, 09:26 PM	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL YES	0.768	$4,048	— (SELL)
Jul 19, 09:26 PM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL NO	0.778	$3,632	— (SELL)
Jul 19, 09:26 PM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL NO	0.774	$7,030	— (SELL)
Jul 19, 09:26 PM	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL YES	0.774	$3,617	— (SELL)
Jul 19, 09:26 PM	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL YES	0.778	$5,602	— (SELL)
Jul 19, 09:26 PM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL NO	0.773	$2,408	— (SELL)
Jul 19, 09:26 PM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL NO	0.765	$13.8K	— (SELL)
Jul 19, 09:26 PM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.736	$6,300	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 09:26 PM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL YES	0.295	$1,130	— (SELL)
Jul 19, 09:26 PM	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.770	$1,823	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 09:26 PM	Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.719	$4,839	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 09:26 PM	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.694	$6,854	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 09:26 PM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL YES	0.295	$2,319	— (SELL)
Jul 19, 09:26 PM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL YES	0.295	$1,440	— (SELL)
Jul 19, 09:25 PM	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL YES	0.680	$2,231	— (SELL)
Jul 19, 09:14 PM	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.767	$7,066	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 09:09 PM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.657	$1,532	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 09:09 PM	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.634	$18.5K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 19, 09:09 PM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL YES	0.371	$9,906	— (SELL)
Jul 19, 07:14 PM	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.562	$2,540	—
Jul 19, 07:11 PM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.580	$19.0K	—
Jul 15, 08:55 PM	Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL NO	0.970	$40.8K	— (SELL)
Jul 15, 08:53 PM	Will England win the World Cup?	BUY NO	0.980	$1,281	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 15, 08:53 PM	Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.960	$19.5K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 15, 08:52 PM	Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.895	$19.5K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 15, 08:52 PM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.300	$3,900	Cheap band — no rep
Jul 15, 08:52 PM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.220	$1,082	Cheap band — no rep
Jul 15, 08:45 PM	Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL YES	0.320	$3,877	— (SELL)
Jul 15, 08:45 PM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.108	$1,818	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 15, 08:36 PM	Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL YES	0.311	$3,100	— (SELL)
Jul 15, 08:36 PM	Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	SELL YES	0.748	$12.2K	— (SELL)
Jul 15, 08:36 PM	Will Argentina win the World Cup?	SELL NO	0.879	$3,139	— (SELL)
Jul 15, 08:36 PM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL NO	0.890	$1,237	— (SELL)
Jul 15, 08:36 PM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL NO	0.890	$3,916	— (SELL)
Jul 15, 08:36 PM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL NO	0.890	$3,177	— (SELL)
Jul 15, 08:15 PM	Will Argentina win the World Cup?	BUY NO	0.844	$3,349	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 15, 08:15 PM	Will England win the World Cup?	BUY YES	0.260	$1,043	Cheap band — no rep
Jul 15, 08:15 PM	Will England be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup?	BUY YES	0.335	$1,037	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 15, 08:15 PM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.820	$4,874	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 15, 08:15 PM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.820	$4,968	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 15, 08:15 PM	Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	BUY YES	0.550	$9,750	—
Jul 15, 08:15 PM	Will England be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup?	BUY YES	0.330	$1,235	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 14, 08:28 PM	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.500	$1,450	—
Jul 14, 08:26 PM	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.501	$3,520	—
Jul 14, 08:26 PM	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL NO	0.948	$36.5K	— (SELL)
Jul 14, 08:26 PM	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.055	$3,000	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 14, 08:22 PM	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.950	$9,742	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 14, 08:20 PM	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.511	$9,745	—
Jul 14, 07:21 PM	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.685	$6,585	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 14, 07:19 PM	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.634	$7,948	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 14, 07:19 PM	Will Spain be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup?	BUY NO	0.440	$1,483	—
Jul 12, 05:35 PM	Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?	BUY YES	0.750	$3,696	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 12, 05:17 PM	Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?	SELL NO	0.310	$1,417	— (SELL)
Jul 12, 05:12 PM	Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?	BUY YES	0.560	$2,732	—
Jul 12, 04:18 PM	Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?	BUY YES	0.620	$1,841	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 12, 03:28 PM	Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?	BUY NO	0.250	$1,000	Cheap band — no rep
Jul 12, 03:12 PM	Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?	BUY NO	0.180	$1,744	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 12, 03:06 PM	Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?	BUY NO	0.170	$1,037	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 12, 03:41 AM	Will Switzerland reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.989	$9,741	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 12, 03:41 AM	Will Switzerland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	BUY NO	0.996	$6,727	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 12, 03:33 AM	Will Switzerland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	BUY NO	0.964	$9,742	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 12, 03:32 AM	Will Switzerland win the World Cup?	BUY NO	0.988	$1,489	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 12, 03:32 AM	Will Switzerland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	BUY NO	0.929	$2,136	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 12, 03:32 AM	Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	BUY YES	0.375	$2,287	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 12, 03:32 AM	Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.975	$6,675	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 12, 03:10 AM	Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.988	$9,603	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 12, 02:28 AM	Will Switzerland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	SELL NO	0.954	$4,962	— (SELL)
Jul 12, 02:11 AM	Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.992	$9,741	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 12, 01:31 AM	Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.992	$9,741	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 12, 01:10 AM	Will Switzerland reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.820	$1,230	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 12, 01:10 AM	Will Switzerland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	BUY NO	0.951	$5,325	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 12, 01:10 AM	Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.983	$9,742	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 11, 11:45 PM	Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	BUY NO	0.994	$3,624	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 11, 11:45 PM	Will Norway be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup?	BUY NO	0.993	$3,058	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 11, 11:45 PM	Will Norway win the World Cup?	BUY NO	0.998	$8,203	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 11, 11:27 PM	Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	SELL NO	0.965	$3,376	— (SELL)
Jul 11, 11:16 PM	Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	SELL NO	0.986	$2,044	— (SELL)
Jul 11, 11:16 PM	Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL YES	0.016	$1,279	— (SELL)
Jul 11, 11:16 PM	Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.987	$9,742	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 11, 11:14 PM	Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.018	$1,434	—
Jul 11, 11:09 PM	Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.968	$2,029	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 11, 11:09 PM	Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.948	$1,689	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 11, 11:01 PM	Harry Kane: 1+ goals	BUY NO	0.990	$8,758	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 11, 10:35 PM	Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	BUY NO	0.790	$2,807	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 11, 10:16 PM	Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.897	$2,366	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 11, 10:16 PM	Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	BUY NO	0.602	$3,397	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 11, 09:50 PM	Will England be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup?	BUY YES	0.241	$1,482	Cheap band — no rep
Jul 11, 09:50 PM	Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	BUY NO	0.867	$1,494	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 11, 09:50 PM	Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.947	$9,741	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 11, 09:47 PM	Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	SELL NO	0.671	$1,682	— (SELL)
Jul 11, 09:36 PM	Will England win the World Cup?	BUY NO	0.860	$4,036	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 11, 09:36 PM	Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	BUY NO	0.640	$2,131	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 11, 09:08 PM	Harry Kane: 1+ goals	BUY NO	0.510	$2,423	—
Jul 11, 05:35 PM	Will Linda Nosková be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?	BUY YES	0.964	$1,747	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 11, 05:35 PM	Will Karolína Muchová be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?	BUY NO	0.967	$1,619	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 11, 05:18 PM	Will Linda Nosková be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?	BUY YES	0.748	$1,921	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 11, 04:31 PM	Will Karolína Muchová be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?	BUY NO	0.920	$2,335	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 11, 04:08 PM	Will Linda Nosková be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?	BUY YES	0.900	$1,392	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 10, 08:58 PM	Will Belgium be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?	BUY YES	0.993	$3,200	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 10, 08:58 PM	Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	BUY NO	0.998	$1,104	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 10, 08:50 PM	Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	BUY NO	0.993	$1,701	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 10, 08:50 PM	Will Belgium win the World Cup?	BUY NO	0.995	$1,829	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 10, 08:49 PM	Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.989	$8,801	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 10, 07:40 PM	Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.007	$1,731	—
Jul 10, 07:29 PM	Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	BUY NO	0.970	$1,230	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 10, 07:29 PM	Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.980	$3,697	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 10, 07:29 PM	Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	BUY NO	0.966	$1,973	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 10, 07:29 PM	Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.980	$6,084	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 10, 07:29 PM	Will Spain be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup?	BUY YES	0.452	$2,789	—
Jul 10, 05:29 PM	Will Novak Djokovic be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?	BUY NO	0.991	$2,484	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 10, 01:46 PM	Will Alexander Zverev advance to the Final in Gentlemen's Singles at Wimbledon 2026?	BUY YES	0.969	$1,429	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 10, 01:30 PM	Will Arthur Fery be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?	BUY NO	0.979	$2,074	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 9, 09:29 PM	Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	BUY NO	0.991	$5,903	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 9, 09:29 PM	Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.992	$9,741	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 9, 09:29 PM	Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.948	$3,649	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 9, 09:23 PM	Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.988	$4,663	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 9, 09:23 PM	Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.988	$1,990	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 9, 09:23 PM	Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.981	$3,100	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 9, 08:28 PM	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.643	$4,425	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 9, 08:27 PM	Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	BUY NO	0.933	$7,039	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 9, 08:25 PM	Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	BUY NO	0.924	$9,015	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 9, 08:21 PM	Will Morocco reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.790	$9,635	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 9, 08:21 PM	Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.790	$7,516	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 9, 08:04 PM	Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.969	$9,750	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 9, 08:04 PM	Will Morocco reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.777	$1,183	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 7, 10:50 PM	Will Colombia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.990	$1,167	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 7, 10:50 PM	Will Colombia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	BUY NO	0.977	$1,100	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 7, 10:48 PM	Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.994	$6,183	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 7, 10:47 PM	Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.988	$3,573	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 7, 10:47 PM	Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.986	$1,778	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 7, 10:44 PM	Will Colombia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	BUY NO	0.938	$1,489	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 7, 10:41 PM	Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.988	$6,858	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 7, 09:12 PM	Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.020	$1,754	—
Jul 7, 09:12 PM	Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.010	$1,493	—
Jul 7, 05:55 PM	Will Egypt reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.967	$1,846	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 7, 05:55 PM	Will Egypt reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	BUY NO	0.989	$6,045	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 7, 05:55 PM	Will Egypt reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.870	$3,666	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 7, 05:47 PM	Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.994	$2,677	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 7, 05:47 PM	Will Egypt reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	BUY NO	0.960	$1,200	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 7, 05:46 PM	Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.985	$2,571	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 7, 05:46 PM	Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.988	$1,019	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 7, 05:42 PM	Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.981	$6,311	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 7, 05:34 PM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.016	$1,924	—
Jul 7, 05:24 PM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.084	$2,531	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 7, 05:23 PM	Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.500	$1,567	—
Jul 7, 05:23 PM	Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.990	$6,811	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 7, 05:21 PM	Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.009	$1,061	—
Jul 7, 05:21 PM	Will Egypt reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.129	$2,437	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 7, 05:03 PM	Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	BUY YES	0.170	$2,668	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 7, 04:15 PM	Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.400	$1,173	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 7, 04:15 PM	Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.393	$3,206	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 7, 01:20 AM	Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.990	$1,905	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 7, 12:30 AM	Will Belgium reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.338	$1,104	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 7, 12:09 AM	Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.850	$1,225	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 7, 12:09 AM	Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.850	$5,623	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 6, 08:58 PM	Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.985	$7,500	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 6, 08:56 PM	Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.980	$4,285	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 6, 08:56 PM	Will Portugal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.980	$1,167	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 6, 08:56 PM	Will Spain be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?	BUY NO	0.979	$2,758	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 6, 08:53 PM	Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.941	$2,794	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 6, 08:53 PM	Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.662	$1,168	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 6, 08:52 PM	Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.890	$3,956	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 6, 08:52 PM	Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	BUY NO	0.913	$1,403	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 6, 08:52 PM	Will Portugal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.871	$1,332	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 6, 08:52 PM	Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.941	$7,492	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 6, 07:40 PM	Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	BUY NO	0.780	$1,562	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 6, 03:03 AM	Will Mexico win the World Cup?	BUY NO	0.995	$1,497	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 6, 02:59 AM	Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	BUY NO	0.964	$7,497	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 6, 02:19 AM	Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.967	$7,500	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 6, 02:14 AM	Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.898	$7,494	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 6, 01:39 AM	Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	BUY NO	0.970	$3,999	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 6, 01:37 AM	Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.979	$4,998	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 6, 01:36 AM	Will Mexico win the World Cup?	BUY NO	0.975	$1,205	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 6, 01:36 AM	Will Mexico be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?	BUY NO	0.780	$1,208	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 6, 01:36 AM	Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	BUY NO	0.879	$1,073	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 6, 01:36 AM	Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.549	$2,061	—
Jul 6, 01:36 AM	Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.960	$4,991	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 6, 01:36 AM	Will Mexico be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?	BUY YES	0.530	$2,083	—
Jul 6, 01:15 AM	Will Mexico reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.500	$1,731	—
Jul 6, 01:15 AM	Will England win the World Cup?	BUY NO	0.927	$1,381	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 5, 09:51 PM	Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.990	$2,614	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 5, 08:02 PM	Will Norway reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.365	$1,666	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 5, 08:02 PM	Will Brazil reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.342	$1,785	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jul 4, 06:46 PM	Will Morocco reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.970	$4,419	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 4, 06:13 PM	Will Canada reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.970	$3,620	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 4, 03:19 AM	Will Ghana be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup?	BUY NO	0.990	$1,990	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 4, 02:49 AM	Will Ghana be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup?	BUY NO	0.990	$1,015	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 4, 02:49 AM	Will Ghana reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.984	$1,488	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 4, 01:44 AM	Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.969	$4,997	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 4, 01:25 AM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL NO	0.828	$5,896	— (SELL)
Jul 4, 12:17 AM	Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	BUY NO	0.658	$1,264	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 4, 12:17 AM	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.818	$4,581	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jul 3, 11:46 PM	Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.997	$4,128	Above conviction band — net-negative

Markets active in

69 markets · sorted by volume

Market	Category	Trades	Volume	Net BUY
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Other	24	$114.9K	$-9,744
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Tech	16	$107.7K	$-4,739
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Other	7	$96.6K	+$1,078
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Other	6	$68.2K	$-4,816
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Other	7	$53.9K	+$53.9K
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Other	5	$29.2K	+$29.2K
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Other	5	$29.1K	+$1,426
Will Switzerland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Other	5	$28.9K	+$19.0K
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Other	6	$25.9K	+$23.4K
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Other	3	$22.0K	+$22.0K
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Other	6	$20.4K	+$20.4K
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Other	4	$20.3K	+$20.3K
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Other	5	$18.3K	+$18.3K
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Other	3	$17.5K	+$17.5K
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Other	2	$15.0K	+$15.0K
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?	Other	7	$13.5K	+$10.6K
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Other	5	$13.3K	+$2,504
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Other	3	$12.6K	+$12.6K
Harry Kane: 1+ goals	Other	2	$11.2K	+$11.2K
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Other	2	$11.2K	+$11.2K
Will Switzerland reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Other	2	$11.0K	+$11.0K
Will Morocco reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Other	2	$10.8K	+$10.8K
Will Argentina win the World Cup?	Other	3	$10.7K	+$4,400
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Other	2	$8,231	+$8,231
Will Norway win the World Cup?	Other	1	$8,203	+$8,203
Will England win the World Cup?	Other	4	$7,741	+$7,741
Will Egypt reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Other	2	$7,245	+$7,245
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Other	2	$6,848	+$6,848
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Tech	2	$6,750	+$6,750
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	Other	3	$6,220	+$6,220

Showing top 30 by volume.