ppxtu

Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0xfb57…0a46 with our methodology badges per row.

0xfb57f8670d2f51a76b0ce40c533ed7d7328c0a46·Polymarket profile ↗

Resolved trades

lifetime

PnL per $

-23%

historical realized

Win rate

73.6%

volume-weighted

Volume resolved

$81.5K

across all resolved markets

Wave-34 gate verdict: ✗ fails

The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. 16 resolved trades · -23% PnL/$. Misses the threshold; cheap-band BUYs would surface as Watch tier only.

Trades (90d)

Distinct markets

Volume (90d)

$301.0K

avg $4,630 / trade

BUY vs SELL

$182.2K / $118.8K

net direction

Recent trades

last 65 · 90d window

When	Market	Side	Price	Size	Methodology
Jun 13, 05:11 AM	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.899	$1,124	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 13, 05:10 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	SELL YES	0.470	$1,127	— (SELL)
Jun 12, 09:39 PM	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.894	$10.3K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 03:21 PM	Israel closes its airspace by June 14?	BUY NO	0.991	$1,265	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 03:20 PM	Israel closes its airspace by June 13?	BUY NO	0.997	$2,720	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 03:13 PM	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?	SELL YES	0.958	$4,733	— (SELL)
Jun 12, 02:56 PM	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.922	$1,712	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 02:51 PM	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?	SELL YES	0.910	$7,862	— (SELL)
Jun 12, 02:49 PM	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	SELL YES	0.754	$6,072	— (SELL)
Jun 11, 01:00 PM	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?	BUY YES	0.840	$2,496	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 12:59 PM	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	BUY YES	0.640	$4,096	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 12:58 PM	Fed rate hike in 2026?	BUY NO	0.490	$8,329	—
Jun 11, 12:40 PM	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.844	$2,955	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 12:30 PM	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?	BUY YES	0.840	$3,000	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 12:30 PM	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?	BUY YES	0.926	$3,200	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 12:28 PM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	SELL NO	0.875	$24.3K	— (SELL)
Jun 10, 04:58 AM	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?	BUY YES	0.800	$1,280	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 04:58 AM	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?	BUY YES	0.908	$1,271	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 04:57 AM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	SELL NO	0.970	$5,125	— (SELL)
Jun 4, 12:06 AM	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	SELL NO	0.830	$1,993	— (SELL)
Jun 2, 02:36 AM	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.946	$3,471	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 2, 02:33 AM	Israel closes its airspace by June 15?	BUY NO	0.910	$1,001	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 2, 02:29 AM	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.818	$3,609	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 2, 02:26 AM	NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.976	$1,678	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 2, 02:23 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June?	SELL NO	0.705	$2,549	— (SELL)
Jun 2, 02:22 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June?	SELL NO	0.922	$3,699	— (SELL)
Jun 2, 02:22 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June?	SELL NO	0.855	$4,019	— (SELL)
Jun 1, 10:30 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June?	BUY NO	0.900	$1,170	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 02:34 AM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	BUY NO	0.991	$2,963	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 02:33 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	SELL YES	0.820	$2,962	— (SELL)
May 28, 02:01 AM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	BUY NO	0.991	$1,853	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 01:58 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	SELL YES	0.370	$1,850	— (SELL)
May 23, 01:22 AM	NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.950	$1,963	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 21, 06:21 PM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	BUY NO	0.930	$19.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 21, 06:18 PM	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	SELL NO	0.934	$19.0K	— (SELL)
May 21, 05:55 PM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	BUY NO	0.930	$4,036	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 21, 05:51 PM	NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.965	$1,158	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 21, 05:41 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	BUY YES	0.400	$2,000	Killed band — neutral expectation
May 21, 05:33 PM	Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.960	$3,072	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 21, 05:25 PM	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	SELL NO	0.934	$10.3K	— (SELL)
May 21, 05:16 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	BUY YES	0.799	$2,885	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 21, 05:07 PM	Iran coup attempt by June 30?	BUY NO	0.900	$1,080	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 21, 04:54 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May?	BUY YES	0.632	$1,478	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 21, 04:47 PM	Fed rate hike in 2026?	BUY NO	0.666	$2,662	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 21, 04:43 PM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	BUY NO	0.967	$2,596	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 21, 04:42 PM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	BUY NO	0.920	$7,509	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 21, 04:40 PM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	BUY NO	0.966	$1,967	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 21, 04:30 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	SELL YES	0.976	$20.5K	— (SELL)
May 1, 03:22 AM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.960	$10.4K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 1, 03:13 AM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.960	$9,792	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 28, 03:29 AM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	SELL YES	0.997	$1,061	— (SELL)
Apr 8, 05:00 AM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.984	$4,024	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 1, 05:31 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.983	$11.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 1, 05:15 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.982	$5,008	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 1, 05:11 PM	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	BUY NO	0.840	$2,016	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 1, 05:09 PM	US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?	BUY YES	0.760	$3,040	Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 30, 08:55 PM	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	BUY NO	0.900	$1,579	Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 24, 04:33 AM	0xf64f880b	BUY NO	0.910	$1,661	Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 24, 04:29 AM	0xc5300759	SELL NO	0.519	$1,659	— (SELL)
Mar 23, 01:36 PM	0xf64f880b	BUY NO	0.918	$2,000	Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 23, 01:31 PM	0xf64f880b	BUY NO	0.918	$7,834	Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 23, 01:31 PM	0xf6890c70	BUY NO	0.730	$2,000	Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 23, 01:30 PM	0x814657a1	BUY NO	0.839	$6,000	Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 23, 01:30 PM	0xf6890c70	BUY NO	0.728	$2,000	Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 23, 01:30 PM	0xc5300759	BUY NO	0.626	$2,000	Above conviction band — net-negative

Markets active in

30 markets · sorted by volume

Market	Category	Trades	Volume	Net BUY
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	Other	5	$60.0K	+$1,181
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	Finance	3	$40.7K	$-346
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Tech	3	$30.9K	$-27,718
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Finance	4	$22.0K	+$19.8K
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Other	4	$16.6K	+$16.6K
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?	Tech	4	$14.6K	$-1,086
0xf64f880b	—	3	$11.5K	+$11.5K
Fed rate hike in 2026?	Finance	2	$11.0K	+$11.0K
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Tech	2	$10.2K	$-1,976
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	Other	4	$9,380	+$9,380
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?	Tech	3	$9,205	$-262
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Other	2	$6,564	+$6,564
0x814657a1	—	1	$6,000	+$6,000
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Tech	2	$5,847	$-77
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June?	Other	2	$5,189	$-2,849
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?	Other	3	$4,798	+$4,798
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Other	2	$4,009	+$23
0xf6890c70	—	2	$4,000	+$4,000
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Tech	2	$3,850	+$150
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June?	Other	1	$3,699	$-3,699
0xc5300759	—	2	$3,659	+$341
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026?	Other	1	$3,072	+$3,072
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?	Other	1	$3,040	+$3,040
Israel closes its airspace by June 13?	Tech	1	$2,720	+$2,720
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June?	Other	1	$2,549	$-2,549
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May?	Other	1	$1,478	+$1,478
Israel closes its airspace by June 14?	Tech	1	$1,265	+$1,265
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Tech	1	$1,127	$-1,127
Iran coup attempt by June 30?	Other	1	$1,080	+$1,080
Israel closes its airspace by June 15?	Tech	1	$1,001	+$1,001