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StudentMoney

Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0xfb51…742d with our methodology badges per row.

0xfb5148fc7223630e0967dbfa8cd920d83ab4742d·Polymarket profile ↗
Resolved trades
129
lifetime
PnL per $
+2229%
historical realized
Win rate
45.9%
volume-weighted
Volume resolved
$508.5K
across all resolved markets
Wave-34 gate verdict: ✓ passes

The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. This wallet clears the bar — its BUYs in 0.20–0.30 trigger our high-conviction tier.

Trades (90d)
200
capped at 200
Distinct markets
86
Volume (90d)
$727.3K
avg $3,637 / trade
BUY vs SELL
$356.2K / $371.1K
net direction

Recent trades

last 200 · 90d window
WhenMarketSidePriceSizeMethodology
Jun 20, 10:50 PMWill Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?BUY NO0.860$4,295Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 20, 10:49 PMIran leadership change by June 30?SELL NO0.986$5,505— (SELL)
Jun 20, 08:07 PMWill Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?BUY YES0.698$1,220Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 20, 08:07 PMIran leadership change by June 30?SELL NO0.987$1,481— (SELL)
Jun 20, 07:39 PMWill Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 15%+?BUY NO0.969$3,927Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 20, 07:18 PMWill Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?BUY YES0.657$1,147Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 13, 11:40 AMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?SELL NO0.994$10.9K— (SELL)
Jun 13, 11:36 AMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?SELL NO0.756$4,456— (SELL)
Jun 13, 09:34 AMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?SELL NO0.992$6,944— (SELL)
Jun 11, 07:18 PMWill Mexico win on 2026-06-11?BUY YES0.860$1,720Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 04:52 PMWill South Africa win on 2026-06-11?BUY NO0.900$1,800Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 04:08 PMWill South Africa win on 2026-06-11?BUY NO0.900$2,700Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 02:34 PMIran leadership change by June 30?SELL NO0.941$6,117— (SELL)
Jun 11, 02:33 PMMiguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?SELL NO0.910$2,730— (SELL)
Jun 11, 02:32 PMWill Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?SELL NO0.860$8,600— (SELL)
Jun 11, 01:54 PMIran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?SELL NO0.950$1,425— (SELL)
Jun 11, 08:29 AMWill Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?SELL NO0.975$2,925— (SELL)
Jun 11, 05:30 AMWill Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?SELL NO0.974$1,948— (SELL)
Jun 10, 03:32 AMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9?BUY NO0.998$4,990Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 05:35 PMWill Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?SELL NO0.972$1,602— (SELL)
Jun 9, 08:25 AMWill Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?SELL NO0.995$5,485— (SELL)
Jun 9, 08:08 AMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?BUY NO0.950$2,850Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 09:00 AMWill Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?SELL NO0.241$1,742— (SELL)
Jun 8, 03:04 AMWill Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?BUY YES0.450$1,434
Jun 7, 07:22 AMWill Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?BUY NO0.830$1,160Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 6, 02:18 AMWill Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?SELL YES0.610$1,225— (SELL)
Jun 4, 07:41 AMWill Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?SELL YES0.670$1,847— (SELL)
Jun 3, 04:36 AMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?SELL NO0.983$5,879— (SELL)
Jun 3, 03:32 AMWill Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?BUY YES0.820$5,295Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 2, 04:10 PMWill Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 7, 2026?BUY NO0.900$2,700Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 2, 04:09 PMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?BUY NO0.972$5,829Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 2, 04:08 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?BUY NO0.950$3,800Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 2, 04:05 PMWill Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?BUY NO0.780$1,560Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 2, 09:57 AMMiguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?SELL NO0.880$1,577— (SELL)
Jun 2, 03:14 AMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?BUY NO0.950$1,900Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 05:19 PMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?BUY NO0.950$2,205Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 05:18 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?BUY NO0.950$1,900Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 02:17 AMIran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?SELL NO0.999$5,994— (SELL)
Jun 1, 02:13 AMIran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?SELL NO0.999$6,993— (SELL)
May 31, 03:31 PMIran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?BUY NO0.986$2,095Above conviction band — net-negative
May 30, 03:42 PMWill PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?BUY YES0.530$4,290
May 30, 03:41 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?SELL NO0.972$3,889— (SELL)
May 30, 03:01 PMWill Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?BUY NO0.530$5,300
May 30, 03:00 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?SELL NO0.969$1,938— (SELL)
May 30, 02:58 PMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?SELL NO0.999$1,444— (SELL)
May 30, 10:41 AMWill Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?BUY NO0.570$1,140
May 30, 04:36 AMWill Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?BUY YES0.620$1,278Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 06:19 PMWill Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?BUY NO0.370$2,674Killed band — neutral expectation
May 29, 06:05 PMWill Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?SELL NO0.500$6,572— (SELL)
May 29, 05:02 PMIran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?SELL NO0.959$1,439— (SELL)
May 29, 11:49 AMWill Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?SELL NO0.999$2,997— (SELL)
May 29, 02:02 AMIran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?BUY NO0.937$8,223Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 02:01 AMKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?SELL NO0.940$4,230— (SELL)
May 29, 01:03 AMKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?SELL NO0.940$3,760— (SELL)
May 29, 12:49 AMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?SELL NO0.640$2,560— (SELL)
May 28, 06:08 PMIran leadership change by May 31?SELL NO0.987$2,290— (SELL)
May 28, 03:57 PMWill Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles?SELL NO0.999$1,234— (SELL)
May 24, 03:39 PMKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?SELL NO0.982$1,020— (SELL)
May 24, 03:39 PMIran leadership change by June 30?SELL NO0.910$2,308— (SELL)
May 24, 03:31 AMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?BUY NO0.720$1,052Above conviction band — net-negative
May 24, 03:29 AMStarmer out by June 30, 2026?BUY NO0.780$2,539Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 11:45 PMKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?SELL NO0.930$6,045— (SELL)
May 21, 12:16 AMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?BUY NO0.943$3,856Above conviction band — net-negative
May 20, 09:24 PMMiguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?BUY NO0.810$1,400Above conviction band — net-negative
May 17, 09:16 PMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?SELL NO0.955$1,433— (SELL)
May 17, 08:01 AMStarmer out by June 30, 2026?BUY NO0.350$1,208Killed band — neutral expectation
May 17, 08:00 AMStarmer out by May 19, 2026?BUY NO0.899$2,423Above conviction band — net-negative
May 16, 11:16 PMWill Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?BUY YES0.330$7,796Killed band — neutral expectation
May 16, 09:25 PMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?SELL NO0.964$3,856— (SELL)
May 16, 09:11 PMStarmer out by December 31, 2026?SELL NO0.200$1,300— (SELL)
May 16, 08:35 PMStarmer out by December 31, 2026?SELL NO0.260$1,541— (SELL)
May 15, 10:04 AMUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?SELL NO0.997$1,198— (SELL)
May 15, 07:59 AMWill Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?BUY YES0.636$1,760Above conviction band — net-negative
May 13, 07:10 AMIran leadership change by May 31?BUY NO0.930$3,164Above conviction band — net-negative
May 12, 12:15 PMWill Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?BUY YES0.645$1,206Above conviction band — net-negative
May 12, 12:15 PMIran leadership change by December 31?SELL NO0.650$1,300— (SELL)
May 9, 05:59 PMIran leadership change by May 31?SELL NO0.940$14.3K— (SELL)
May 9, 05:59 PMIran leadership change by June 30?SELL NO0.890$6,230— (SELL)
May 9, 05:51 PMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?SELL NO0.988$7,899— (SELL)
May 6, 09:04 PMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?SELL NO0.949$7,589— (SELL)
May 6, 08:21 PMWill Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06?SELL NO0.490$1,323— (SELL)
May 5, 10:17 PMWill Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?SELL NO0.999$3,278— (SELL)
May 5, 07:56 PMWill Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?BUY NO0.949$2,305Above conviction band — net-negative
May 5, 12:33 PMIran leadership change by May 31?BUY NO0.900$1,083Above conviction band — net-negative
May 4, 08:43 PMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?SELL NO0.840$3,108— (SELL)
May 4, 07:44 PMPutin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?SELL NO0.900$2,700— (SELL)
May 3, 08:41 PMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?BUY NO0.910$2,730Above conviction band — net-negative
May 3, 06:53 PMKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?BUY NO0.890$4,450Above conviction band — net-negative
May 3, 06:33 PMIran leadership change by December 31?SELL NO0.660$6,600— (SELL)
May 3, 06:28 PMWill Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-03?SELL NO0.180$1,040— (SELL)
May 3, 06:27 PMWill Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-03?SELL NO0.184$1,543— (SELL)
May 3, 05:55 PMWill Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-03?BUY NO0.690$1,035Above conviction band — net-negative
May 3, 05:18 PMWill Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-03?BUY NO0.690$2,070Above conviction band — net-negative
May 3, 05:17 PMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?SELL NO0.800$3,200— (SELL)
May 3, 01:41 PMWill Hibernian FC win on 2026-05-03?SELL NO0.999$2,197— (SELL)
May 3, 01:40 PMUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?SELL NO0.984$2,681— (SELL)
May 3, 11:34 AMUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?SELL NO0.980$3,920— (SELL)
May 2, 06:46 PMIran leadership change by December 31?BUY NO0.670$1,106Above conviction band — net-negative
May 2, 10:13 AMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?BUY NO0.800$1,600Above conviction band — net-negative
May 1, 10:53 PMWill Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?BUY NO0.860$3,440Above conviction band — net-negative
May 1, 09:46 PMUS strike on Cuba by December 31?BUY NO0.630$1,527Above conviction band — net-negative
May 1, 05:16 PMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?BUY NO0.710$1,339Above conviction band — net-negative
May 1, 12:54 PMWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?BUY NO0.800$4,000Above conviction band — net-negative
May 1, 11:53 AMKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?BUY NO0.860$4,300Above conviction band — net-negative
May 1, 10:42 AMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?BUY NO0.750$1,414Above conviction band — net-negative
May 1, 09:47 AMIran leadership change by June 30?BUY NO0.810$8,100Above conviction band — net-negative
May 1, 07:42 AMWill Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?BUY NO0.870$1,160Above conviction band — net-negative
May 1, 07:41 AMMiguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?BUY NO0.799$2,210Above conviction band — net-negative
May 1, 07:40 AMWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?BUY NO0.800$9,600Above conviction band — net-negative
May 1, 07:39 AMIran leadership change by May 31?BUY NO0.880$3,104Above conviction band — net-negative
May 1, 12:10 AMUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?BUY NO0.931$2,771Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 30, 08:30 AMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?BUY NO0.740$6,873Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 30, 08:29 AMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?SELL NO0.996$4,274— (SELL)
Apr 30, 08:29 AMIran leadership change by April 30?SELL NO0.997$3,539— (SELL)
Apr 30, 05:16 AMIran leadership change by June 30?BUY NO0.800$8,000Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 29, 07:56 PMWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?BUY NO0.790$2,246Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 29, 04:40 AMWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?BUY NO0.800$4,000Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 29, 04:38 AMMiguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?BUY NO0.770$1,346Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 29, 04:37 AMKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?BUY NO0.860$4,300Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 29, 04:31 AMMiguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?BUY NO0.770$3,042Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 28, 07:57 PMWill FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28?SELL NO0.820$1,071— (SELL)
Apr 28, 03:48 PMMadrid Open: Vit Kopriva vs Rafael JodarSELL YES0.999$11.6K— (SELL)
Apr 28, 02:23 PMMadrid Open: Vit Kopriva vs Rafael JodarBUY YES0.760$1,520Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 28, 02:14 PMWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL YES0.155$2,475— (SELL)
Apr 28, 01:38 PMKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?SELL NO0.991$6,827— (SELL)
Apr 28, 01:35 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?SELL NO0.700$1,400— (SELL)
Apr 28, 01:19 PMKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?SELL NO0.991$4,955— (SELL)
Apr 28, 09:30 AMMadrid Open: Jannik Sinner vs Cameron NorrieBUY YES0.976$1,307Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 28, 09:30 AMMadrid Open: Jannik Sinner vs Cameron NorrieBUY YES0.974$2,284Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 28, 07:51 AMKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?SELL NO0.992$10.9K— (SELL)
Apr 28, 06:31 AMWill Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?BUY NO0.850$1,295Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 27, 10:06 PMWill Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-27?SELL YES0.999$2,256— (SELL)
Apr 27, 07:56 PMWill Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-27?BUY YES0.870$1,733Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 26, 09:29 PMSpurs vs. Trail BlazersBUY YES0.660$1,307Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 26, 12:58 PMStarmer out by June 30, 2026?BUY NO0.560$1,952
Apr 26, 10:18 AMMiguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?BUY NO0.767$1,623Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 26, 07:46 AMKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?BUY NO0.979$7,194Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 26, 12:19 AMKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?BUY NO0.967$10.2KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Apr 26, 12:12 AMWill Pumas de la UNAM win on 2026-04-25?BUY YES0.940$1,222Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 26, 12:07 AMWill Pumas de la UNAM win on 2026-04-25?BUY YES0.940$1,325Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 25, 11:25 PMIran leadership change by April 30?SELL NO0.948$2,330— (SELL)
Apr 25, 11:25 PMKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?SELL NO0.966$19.0K— (SELL)
Apr 25, 11:22 PMStarmer out by April 30, 2026?SELL NO0.979$3,916— (SELL)
Apr 25, 11:16 PMWill Pumas de la UNAM win on 2026-04-25?BUY YES0.730$1,355Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 25, 10:47 PMStarmer out by April 30, 2026?SELL NO0.981$7,845— (SELL)
Apr 25, 10:47 PMWill Santos FC win on 2026-04-25?BUY YES0.770$3,745Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 25, 10:44 PMKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?SELL NO0.957$6,331— (SELL)
Apr 25, 06:28 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?SELL NO0.972$2,333— (SELL)
Apr 25, 11:06 AMStarmer out by June 30, 2026?BUY NO0.519$1,054
Apr 25, 11:05 AMMadrid Open: Francisco Cerundolo vs Yannick HanfmannSELL YES0.999$3,586— (SELL)
Apr 25, 09:30 AMMadrid Open: Francisco Cerundolo vs Yannick HanfmannBUY YES0.840$1,076Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 25, 09:29 AMMadrid Open: Francisco Cerundolo vs Yannick HanfmannBUY YES0.840$1,397Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 22, 04:10 PMWill FC Nantes win on 2026-04-22?BUY NO0.950$16.8KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Apr 21, 07:27 AMKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?BUY NO0.923$4,104Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 20, 09:28 AMStarmer out by April 30, 2026?BUY NO0.946$2,168Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 20, 06:49 AMStarmer out by April 30, 2026?BUY NO0.953$2,079Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 19, 05:36 PMKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?BUY NO0.947$4,083Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 19, 04:22 PM0x8b53269fBUY0.840$3,737Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 19, 03:56 PM0x809f0e04BUY NO0.570$1,688
Apr 19, 03:02 PMIran leadership change by April 30?BUY NO0.957$2,471Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 19, 12:08 PMKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?BUY NO0.954$4,766Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 19, 10:05 AMIran leadership change by April 30?BUY NO0.959$13.0KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Apr 19, 08:43 AMIran leadership change by April 30?BUY NO0.950$2,881Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 18, 09:36 PMIran leadership change by April 30?BUY NO0.945$1,992Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 18, 02:15 PMIran leadership change by April 30?SELL NO0.930$4,187— (SELL)
Apr 18, 01:48 PMIran leadership change by April 30?SELL NO0.940$6,616— (SELL)
Apr 18, 12:34 PMIran leadership change by April 30?SELL NO0.958$2,975— (SELL)
Apr 18, 12:32 PMBarcelona Open: Rafael Jodar vs Arthur FilsSELL0.410$5,761— (SELL)
Apr 18, 11:22 AMIran leadership change by April 30?SELL NO0.958$4,791— (SELL)
Apr 18, 09:19 AMUS strike on Cuba by December 31?SELL NO0.575$1,914— (SELL)
Apr 18, 09:18 AMWill Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?SELL YES0.690$3,766— (SELL)
Apr 16, 07:36 PMIran leadership change by April 30?BUY NO0.940$19.1KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Apr 16, 05:39 PM0xda5af93aBUY YES0.870$2,600Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 16, 02:16 PMBarcelona Open: Corentin Moutet vs Lorenzo MusettiBUY0.840$1,672Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 16, 12:19 PMBMW Open: Alexander Zverev vs Gabriel DialloBUY0.920$9,178Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 16, 12:11 PMBMW Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Alex MolcanSELL0.650$1,055— (SELL)
Apr 16, 08:28 AMBarcelona Open: Cameron Norrie vs Rafael JodarBUY0.690$2,168Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 15, 05:07 PMBMW Open: Vit Kopriva vs Luciano DarderiBUY0.950$2,878Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 15, 01:04 PMBarcelona Open: Rafael Jodar vs Camilo Ugo CarabelliBUY0.810$2,833Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 15, 12:37 PMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?BUY NO0.750$2,250Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 15, 12:23 PMBarcelona Open: Alex de Minaur vs Hamad MedjedovicBUY0.620$1,075Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 15, 07:24 AMIran leadership change by April 30?BUY NO0.930$4,412Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 14, 09:08 PM0xaea9c4c8SELL NO0.999$4,995— (SELL)
Apr 14, 09:03 PM0xaea9c4c8SELL NO0.999$5,994— (SELL)
Apr 14, 08:41 PM0xd72c3cb8BUY NO0.937$1,437Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 14, 04:45 PM0x2b0a012eBUY0.430$2,474
Apr 14, 03:49 PMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?SELL NO0.620$1,547— (SELL)
Apr 14, 03:35 PMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?SELL NO0.650$1,302— (SELL)
Apr 14, 03:31 PMUS strike on Cuba by December 31?SELL NO0.644$2,308— (SELL)
Apr 14, 03:25 PMBMW Open: Zizou Bergs vs Marko TopoSELL0.999$2,824— (SELL)
Apr 14, 03:25 PMBMW Open: Zizou Bergs vs Marko TopoSELL0.999$5,714— (SELL)
Apr 14, 03:25 PMBMW Open: Zizou Bergs vs Marko TopoSELL0.999$2,744— (SELL)
Apr 14, 01:56 PMBMW Open: Zizou Bergs vs Marko TopoBUY0.810$1,799Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 14, 01:46 PM0x6d25e34aSELL0.999$2,668— (SELL)
Apr 14, 01:21 PM0x6d25e34aBUY0.810$1,615Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 14, 12:08 PMBMW Open: Zizou Bergs vs Marko TopoBUY0.800$1,631Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 14, 11:48 AMBMW Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Diego Dedura-PalomeroBUY0.850$1,809Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 14, 11:23 AM0x24f69011BUY0.380$2,977Killed band — neutral expectation
Apr 14, 11:17 AMWill Liverpool reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal?SELL NO0.870$6,468— (SELL)
Apr 14, 11:17 AMWill Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal?SELL YES0.870$3,505— (SELL)

Markets active in

86 markets · sorted by volume
MarketCategoryTradesVolumeNet BUY
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?Other10$78.3K$-17,662
Iran leadership change by April 30?Other12$68.3K+$19.4K
Iran leadership change by June 30?Other7$37.7K$-5,541
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?Other6$27.1K$-985
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?Finance5$24.7K$-4,107
Iran leadership change by May 31?Other5$23.9K$-9,240
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Tech6$20.1K$-3,123
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Other4$19.8K+$19.8K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?Tech3$18.2K$-12,758
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?Other2$17.9K$-17,878
Will FC Nantes win on 2026-04-22?Other1$16.8K+$16.8K
Starmer out by April 30, 2026?Other4$16.0K$-7,513
BMW Open: Zizou Bergs vs Marko TopoOther5$14.7K$-7,851
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Politics3$14.1K$-3,145
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?Other7$13.9K+$5,313
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?Other3$13.9K+$2,155
Madrid Open: Vit Kopriva vs Rafael JodarOther2$13.1K$-10,035
0xaea9c4c82$11.0K$-10,989
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Politics4$9,645+$3,501
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?Other3$9,373$-3,830
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?Politics2$9,246$-3,897
BMW Open: Alexander Zverev vs Gabriel DialloOther1$9,178+$9,178
Iran leadership change by December 31?Other3$9,006$-6,794
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics1$7,796+$7,796
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?Other3$7,600+$7,600
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Other2$7,306$-1,606
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Other3$7,227$-7,227
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Politics2$7,045$-3,925
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Other4$6,753+$6,753
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Other3$6,732$-800

Showing top 30 by volume.