| Jun 13, 04:15 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? | BUY NO | 0.998 | $10.3K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 01:39 PM | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.950 | $4,750 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 10, 06:05 AM | Israel closes its airspace by June 9? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $20.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 7, 08:24 PM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 7, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.998 | $17.1K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 7, 06:59 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.997 | $2,184 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 5, 03:26 PM | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.990 | $4,011 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 4, 03:04 AM | Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.997 | $8,051 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 3, 04:19 AM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.997 | $249.3K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 3, 12:43 AM | Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $1,950 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 2, 06:54 AM | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.995 | $3,580 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 1, 05:12 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $99.9K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 05:08 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $99.9K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 08:23 AM | Trump out as President before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.890 | $9,253 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 08:17 AM | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.910 | $163.3K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 08:17 AM | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.910 | $15.5K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 04:13 AM | Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $10.4K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 04:12 AM | Epstein suicide note released by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.998 | $9,576 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 03:56 AM | Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $99.9K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 02:22 AM | Israel closes its airspace by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $21.2K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 01:23 AM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $26.2K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 01:14 AM | Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $4,354 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 30, 04:14 AM | Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $8,761 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 29, 03:24 PM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $11.5K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 29, 06:29 AM | Trump out as President by May 31? | SELL NO | 0.999 | $21.6K | — (SELL) |
| May 29, 12:59 AM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? | BUY YES | 0.998 | $12.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 28, 02:28 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 27? | SELL NO | 0.998 | $14.9K | — (SELL) |
| May 27, 07:44 AM | Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.998 | $14.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 11:40 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? | SELL YES | 0.943 | $17.4K | — (SELL) |
| May 25, 11:35 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? | SELL YES | 0.953 | $19.7K | — (SELL) |
| May 25, 11:34 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? | SELL YES | 0.966 | $9,893 | — (SELL) |
| May 25, 11:33 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? | SELL YES | 0.963 | $9,739 | — (SELL) |
| May 25, 11:30 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? | SELL YES | 0.982 | $5,833 | — (SELL) |
| May 25, 11:30 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? | SELL YES | 0.985 | $15.6K | — (SELL) |
| May 25, 08:34 AM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? | BUY YES | 0.998 | $155.2K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 06:44 AM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? | BUY YES | 0.997 | $15.2K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 05:01 AM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? | BUY YES | 0.998 | $7,984 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 24, 06:24 AM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? | BUY YES | 0.998 | $3,060 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 02:32 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 24? | SELL YES | 0.220 | $2,333 | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 01:16 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 24? | SELL YES | 0.303 | $1,188 | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 12:24 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 24? | SELL YES | 0.300 | $1,273 | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 08:07 AM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? | BUY YES | 0.998 | $99.8K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 04:28 AM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? | BUY YES | 0.996 | $5,397 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 04:12 AM | Will Trump announce AI export restrictions relief for China? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $1,045 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 04:06 AM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $21.9K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 04:03 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $50.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 01:55 AM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.997 | $50.1K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 22, 12:57 AM | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $44.8K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 21, 08:07 AM | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $1,156 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 20, 02:46 AM | Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? | BUY NO | 0.993 | $3,047 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 19, 08:37 AM | Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $43.6K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 19, 08:37 AM | Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $56.3K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 19, 07:32 AM | Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? | BUY NO | 0.989 | $2,939 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 19, 12:22 AM | NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.790 | $9,544 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 18, 03:28 PM | Will Putin visit China by May 31? | BUY YES | 0.999 | $10.2K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 18, 12:53 PM | Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | BUY NO | 0.994 | $1,986 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 18, 06:39 AM | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | BUY NO | 0.930 | $54.3K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 18, 04:00 AM | Will Trump Insult Xi this week? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $5,812 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 17, 02:58 PM | Will Trump Insult Xi this week? | BUY NO | 0.997 | $5,076 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 17, 06:06 AM | Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $14.5K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 17, 01:03 AM | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.910 | $3,111 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 17, 01:03 AM | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.910 | $100.4K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 17, 01:01 AM | Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan this week? | BUY NO | 0.997 | $20.4K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 16, 02:52 AM | Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $68.5K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 16, 02:44 AM | Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.982 | $3,910 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 15, 03:51 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.998 | $58.4K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 15, 03:39 PM | Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.999 | $41.9K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 15, 03:34 PM | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $69.9K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 15, 03:14 PM | Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.993 | $3,478 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 15, 10:15 AM | Will Trump Insult Xi this week? | BUY NO | 0.986 | $1,910 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 15, 06:42 AM | Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? | SELL YES | 0.619 | $4,771 | — (SELL) |
| May 15, 06:40 AM | Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? | SELL YES | 0.764 | $1,530 | — (SELL) |
| May 15, 06:39 AM | Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? | SELL YES | 0.741 | $2,213 | — (SELL) |
| May 15, 06:37 AM | Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $19.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 15, 06:35 AM | Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? | SELL YES | 0.800 | $1,820 | — (SELL) |
| May 15, 06:33 AM | Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? | SELL YES | 0.808 | $1,225 | — (SELL) |
| May 15, 06:31 AM | Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? | SELL YES | 0.807 | $2,475 | — (SELL) |
| May 15, 05:36 AM | Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? | BUY YES | 0.994 | $1,903 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 15, 03:02 AM | Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit? | BUY NO | 0.998 | $14.1K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 14, 05:01 AM | Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit? | BUY NO | 0.996 | $7,918 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 14, 12:49 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.988 | $2,306 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 13, 05:47 PM | Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.977 | $2,861 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 13, 05:11 PM | Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit? | BUY NO | 0.991 | $7,816 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 13, 03:33 PM | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.900 | $2,565 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 12, 03:59 PM | Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.999 | $2,997 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 12, 03:33 PM | Will Trump visit China by May 15? | BUY YES | 0.996 | $65.3K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 12, 10:33 AM | Will Trump visit China by May 15? | BUY YES | 0.994 | $45.2K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 12, 06:00 AM | Will Trump visit China by May 15? | BUY YES | 0.994 | $25.2K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 12, 03:08 AM | Will Trump visit China by May 15? | BUY YES | 0.994 | $67.2K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 12, 02:18 AM | Will Trump visit China by May 15? | BUY YES | 0.992 | $39.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 11, 11:40 PM | Will Trump visit China by May 15? | BUY YES | 0.990 | $3,871 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 11, 07:31 AM | Will Donald Trump visit China on May 12, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.969 | $1,066 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 11, 07:24 AM | Will Trump visit China by May 15? | BUY YES | 0.993 | $11.6K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 11, 01:45 AM | Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $11.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 9, 01:02 PM | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $67.1K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 9, 04:41 AM | Iran closes its airspace by May 8? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $18.4K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 9, 12:39 AM | Iran closes its airspace by May 8? | BUY NO | 0.996 | $2,297 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 9, 12:24 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.998 | $44.2K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 8, 02:17 PM | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $69.7K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 8, 04:01 AM | Iran closes its airspace by May 7? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $16.3K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 7, 06:17 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 7? | BUY NO | 0.998 | $1,370 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 7, 06:17 PM | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $36.5K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 6, 11:41 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 6? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $13.8K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 6, 06:25 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 6? | BUY NO | 0.997 | $6,629 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 6, 03:53 PM | Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.999 | $39.4K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 6, 08:41 AM | Iran closes its airspace by May 6? | BUY NO | 0.989 | $5,096 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 6, 06:51 AM | Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $83.6K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 6, 06:39 AM | Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? | BUY NO | 0.961 | $1,497 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 5, 05:41 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $175.3K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 5, 03:59 PM | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $3,564 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 5, 03:16 PM | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 5? | BUY YES | 0.997 | $1,166 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 5, 02:53 PM | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 5? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $30.5K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 5, 10:34 AM | Billions FDV above $1B one day after launch? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $4,168 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 5, 12:55 AM | Billions FDV above $100M one day after launch? | BUY YES | 0.998 | $6,166 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 4, 03:40 PM | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $14.4K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 3, 06:37 PM | AWS service disrupted by April 30? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $1,923 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 3, 01:27 PM | AWS service disrupted by April 30? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $10.8K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 3, 12:44 PM | Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by April 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.999 | $106.8K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 1, 06:34 PM | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.900 | $30.6K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 1, 03:50 PM | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.998 | $1,963 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 1, 02:30 PM | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $37.6K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 1, 02:30 PM | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $37.3K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 1, 02:14 PM | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 1? | BUY YES | 0.999 | $1,876 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 1, 08:10 AM | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.900 | $79.3K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 1, 06:36 AM | Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $6,986 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 1, 02:40 AM | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.890 | $4,902 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 30, 01:32 AM | Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? | BUY NO | 0.993 | $4,338 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 29, 05:33 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.998 | $24.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 29, 03:10 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.995 | $21.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 29, 09:02 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.995 | $9,766 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 29, 08:23 AM | Netanyahu out by April 30? | BUY NO | 0.998 | $24.9K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 29, 08:07 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.995 | $5,606 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 29, 05:54 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.993 | $3,134 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |