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0xf5592765133941c40C77e52Bc56bbe7EC167F462-1755612447740
Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0xf559…f462 with our methodology badges per row.
Resolved trades
34
lifetime
PnL per $
+22%
historical realized
Win rate
41.7%
volume-weighted
Volume resolved
$227.3K
across all resolved markets
Wave-34 gate verdict: ✓ passes
The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. This wallet clears the bar — its BUYs in 0.20–0.30 trigger our high-conviction tier.
Trades (90d)
89
Distinct markets
64
Volume (90d)
$580.6K
avg $6,524 / trade
BUY vs SELL
$494.7K / $85.9K
net direction
Recent trades
last 89 · 90d window| When | Market | Side | Price | Size | Methodology |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 10, 07:54 PM | Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY NO | 0.895 | $29.3K | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 10, 03:51 PM | Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.025 | $1,000 | — |
| Jun 10, 03:51 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.820 | $1,550 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 10, 03:39 PM | Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.085 | $5,000 | Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 10, 03:39 PM | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.086 | $2,000 | Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 10, 03:39 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.945 | $7,726 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 10, 03:16 PM | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.086 | $3,000 | Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 10, 03:15 PM | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.165 | $10,000 | Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 7, 07:14 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.870 | $5,000 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 7, 06:33 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.998 | $20.0K | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 7, 03:08 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.950 | $10,000 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 31, 09:29 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.850 | $10.2K | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 31, 06:36 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.900 | $10,000 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 31, 06:26 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.710 | $7,100 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 31, 06:25 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.820 | $1,425 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 29, 11:03 AM | Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? | BUY YES | 0.580 | $6,000 | — |
| May 16, 02:30 PM | Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-05-16? | BUY YES | 0.904 | $8,000 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 16, 02:29 PM | Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? | BUY YES | 0.540 | $2,000 | — |
| Apr 28, 09:46 PM | 76ers vs. Celtics: O/U 215.5 | BUY YES | 0.521 | $2,000 | — |
| Apr 28, 09:45 PM | 76ers vs. Celtics: O/U 215.5 | BUY YES | 0.520 | $5,000 | — |
| Apr 28, 09:43 PM | Spread: Knicks (-6.5) | BUY YES | 0.510 | $9,000 | — |
| Apr 28, 12:43 AM | Timberwolves vs. Nuggets | BUY YES | 0.820 | $8,724 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 27, 01:10 PM | Thunder vs. Suns: O/U 213.5 | BUY YES | 0.508 | $3,941 | — |
| Apr 27, 01:10 PM | Spread: Thunder (-11.5) | BUY YES | 0.538 | $3,945 | — |
| Apr 27, 01:09 PM | Pistons vs. Magic | BUY YES | 0.590 | $7,902 | — |
| Apr 25, 08:44 PM | Nuggets vs. Timberwolves: O/U 230.5 | BUY YES | 0.530 | $3,059 | — |
| Apr 25, 08:43 PM | Nuggets vs. Timberwolves: O/U 232.5 | BUY YES | 0.589 | $2,627 | — |
| Apr 25, 06:24 PM | Spread: Thunder (-9.5) | BUY YES | 0.540 | $1,479 | — |
| Apr 25, 06:06 PM | Nuggets vs. Timberwolves | BUY YES | 0.500 | $4,925 | — |
| Apr 25, 06:06 PM | Nuggets vs. Timberwolves: O/U 232.5 | BUY YES | 0.570 | $1,141 | — |
| Apr 25, 06:04 PM | Spread: Knicks (-2.5) | BUY YES | 0.530 | $4,726 | — |
| Apr 24, 11:14 PM | Spread: Rockets (-9.5) | BUY YES | 0.660 | $2,922 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 24, 11:09 PM | Celtics vs. 76ers: O/U 216.5 | BUY YES | 0.538 | $3,945 | — |
| Apr 24, 11:08 PM | Celtics vs. 76ers: O/U 216.5 | BUY YES | 0.538 | $4,931 | — |
| Apr 24, 11:08 PM | Celtics vs. 76ers: O/U 216.5 | SELL YES | 0.476 | $8,407 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 24, 11:07 PM | Celtics vs. 76ers: O/U 216.5 | BUY YES | 0.492 | $8,863 | — |
| Apr 21, 09:35 PM | Rockets vs. Lakers | BUY | 0.650 | $9,791 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 21, 05:35 PM | Rockets vs. Lakers | BUY | 0.650 | $5,771 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 21, 05:34 PM | US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.790 | $1,205 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 20, 10:03 PM | 0xdbc5836d | BUY | 0.700 | $9,910 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 19, 05:26 PM | 0xce86fa7b | BUY | 0.693 | $2,972 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 19, 05:25 PM | 0x159f8217 | BUY | 0.501 | $1,970 | — |
| Apr 19, 01:20 PM | 0xad03fecb | BUY | 0.560 | $9,868 | — |
| Apr 19, 02:31 AM | 0x620f2c52 | BUY | 0.780 | $13.9K | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 19, 02:31 AM | 0x620f2c52 | BUY | 0.765 | $20.6K | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 18, 04:55 PM | 0x4b46ec50 | BUY | 0.750 | $26.1K | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 18, 04:55 PM | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | SELL YES | 0.984 | $19.7K | — (SELL) |
| Apr 18, 02:05 PM | 0x4c27acaa | BUY | 0.600 | $10.9K | — |
| Apr 17, 11:01 PM | 0x6930e1f8 | BUY | 0.590 | $10.4K | — |
| Apr 17, 11:00 PM | 0x1132ea2c | BUY | 0.590 | $2,963 | — |
| Apr 17, 10:58 PM | Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Elena Rybakina vs Leylah Fernandez | SELL | 0.999 | $13.5K | — (SELL) |
| Apr 17, 09:01 PM | Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Elena Rybakina vs Leylah Fernandez | BUY | 0.767 | $9,791 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 17, 09:00 PM | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | SELL YES | 0.986 | $9,860 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 17, 08:03 PM | 0x1a9c2845 | BUY NO | 0.840 | $9,664 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 17, 02:58 PM | 0x06b9ca38 | BUY | 0.270 | $1,956 | Conviction tier |
| Apr 17, 02:56 PM | 0x3bacada1 | BUY | 0.600 | $4,940 | — |
| Apr 15, 08:27 PM | 0x11d68477 | BUY | 0.480 | $2,859 | — |
| Apr 15, 08:27 PM | 0xcc7dcc6c | SELL NO | 0.450 | $2,953 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 15, 05:38 PM | 0xcc7dcc6c | BUY NO | 0.800 | $5,250 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 15, 05:33 PM | 0x11d68477 | BUY | 0.490 | $1,969 | — |
| Apr 15, 05:32 PM | 0x74ab2fba | BUY | 0.650 | $2,474 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 15, 05:32 PM | 0xfe0f9953 | SELL | 0.999 | $9,782 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 15, 12:51 PM | 0xfe0f9953 | BUY | 0.910 | $8,911 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 14, 01:58 PM | 0x0c258e65 | BUY | 0.390 | $1,473 | Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Apr 14, 01:56 PM | 0xb3433f35 | BUY | 0.710 | $2,974 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 14, 01:56 PM | 0x767b3b51 | BUY | 0.560 | $1,974 | — |
| Apr 14, 01:55 PM | 0x0702c8ea | BUY | 0.480 | $1,969 | — |
| Apr 13, 08:39 PM | 0x74ba584e | BUY | 0.870 | $5,402 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 13, 08:39 PM | 0x9e95e411 | SELL | 0.999 | $5,424 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 13, 08:10 PM | 0x74ba584e | BUY | 0.860 | $5,711 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 13, 07:30 PM | 0x367f9d70 | SELL | 0.699 | $5,787 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 13, 05:46 PM | 0x367f9d70 | BUY | 0.800 | $6,623 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 13, 09:24 AM | 0x9e95e411 | BUY | 0.570 | $3,095 | — |
| Apr 12, 03:59 PM | 0x86ec3fe7 | BUY NO | 0.560 | $4,934 | — |
| Apr 11, 03:36 PM | 0x84f00093 | BUY | 0.920 | $6,932 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 11, 02:22 PM | 0x84f00093 | BUY | 0.700 | $1,895 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 9, 10:54 PM | 0x78eaae44 | BUY | 0.540 | $1,183 | — |
| Apr 9, 09:50 PM | 0x78eaae44 | BUY | 0.530 | $1,306 | — |
| Apr 8, 08:56 PM | 0x72004bf5 | BUY | 0.520 | $5,125 | — |
| Apr 8, 08:55 PM | 0x924ea851 | BUY | 0.580 | $5,090 | — |
| Apr 8, 12:09 PM | 0x7f8703e8 | BUY | 0.870 | $11.1K | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 7, 08:32 PM | 0xf5815980 | BUY | 0.592 | $4,939 | — |
| Apr 7, 08:04 PM | 0xbc0a2d49 | BUY YES | 0.469 | $1,000 | — |
| Apr 6, 12:10 AM | 0x593b3b36 | BUY | 0.570 | $1,688 | — |
| Apr 3, 08:55 PM | 0xd9c6c070 | BUY | 0.568 | $1,378 | — |
| Apr 3, 08:54 PM | 0x9a1ee292 | BUY | 0.640 | $4,148 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 3, 02:02 PM | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | BUY YES | 0.666 | $20.0K | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 28, 03:18 PM | 0xd68a4a78 | BUY | 0.580 | $5,800 | — |
| Mar 23, 01:17 PM | 0x6da6c9ee | BUY | 0.630 | $6,930 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
Markets active in
64 markets · sorted by volume| Market | Category | Trades | Volume | Net BUY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | Other | 3 | $49.6K | $-9,557 |
| 0x620f2c52 | — | 2 | $34.5K | +$34.5K |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | Other | 2 | $30.0K | +$30.0K |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | Other | 4 | $29.4K | +$13.9K |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Other | 1 | $29.3K | +$29.3K |
| Celtics vs. 76ers: O/U 216.5 | Other | 4 | $26.1K | +$9,331 |
| 0x4b46ec50 | — | 1 | $26.1K | +$26.1K |
| Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Elena Rybakina vs Leylah Fernandez | Sports | 2 | $23.3K | $-3,709 |
| 0xfe0f9953 | — | 2 | $18.7K | $-871 |
| Rockets vs. Lakers | Other | 2 | $15.6K | +$15.6K |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Other | 3 | $13.7K | +$10.6K |
| 0x367f9d70 | — | 2 | $12.4K | +$836 |
| 0x74ba584e | — | 2 | $11.1K | +$11.1K |
| 0x7f8703e8 | — | 1 | $11.1K | +$11.1K |
| 0x4c27acaa | — | 1 | $10.9K | +$10.9K |
| 0x6930e1f8 | — | 1 | $10.4K | +$10.4K |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Tech | 1 | $10.0K | +$10.0K |
| 0xdbc5836d | — | 1 | $9,910 | +$9,910 |
| 0xad03fecb | — | 1 | $9,868 | +$9,868 |
| 0x1a9c2845 | — | 1 | $9,664 | +$9,664 |
| Spread: Knicks (-6.5) | Other | 1 | $9,000 | +$9,000 |
| 0x84f00093 | — | 2 | $8,827 | +$8,827 |
| Timberwolves vs. Nuggets | Other | 1 | $8,724 | +$8,724 |
| 0x9e95e411 | — | 2 | $8,518 | $-2,329 |
| 0xcc7dcc6c | — | 2 | $8,203 | +$2,297 |
| Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-05-16? | Other | 1 | $8,000 | +$8,000 |
| Pistons vs. Magic | Other | 1 | $7,902 | +$7,902 |
| 76ers vs. Celtics: O/U 215.5 | Other | 2 | $7,000 | +$7,000 |
| 0x6da6c9ee | — | 1 | $6,930 | +$6,930 |
| Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Other | 1 | $6,000 | +$6,000 |
Showing top 30 by volume.