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HMSMAD123

Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0xf344…9a04 with our methodology badges per row.

0xf3443d0cbed767929f0de8660a0ee232b4e79a04·Polymarket profile ↗
Resolved trades
11
lifetime
PnL per $
-63%
historical realized
Win rate
35.0%
volume-weighted
Volume resolved
$323.5K
across all resolved markets
Wave-34 gate verdict: ✗ fails

The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. 11 resolved trades · -63% PnL/$. Misses the threshold; cheap-band BUYs would surface as Watch tier only.

Trades (90d)
58
Distinct markets
28
Volume (90d)
$871.8K
avg $15.0K / trade
BUY vs SELL
$712.2K / $159.6K
net direction

Recent trades

last 58 · 90d window
WhenMarketSidePriceSizeMethodology
Jun 5, 01:50 AMWill Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.301$1,115Killed band — neutral expectation
May 28, 07:38 PMWill Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.899$16.0KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 27, 08:20 PMWill Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.895$94.0KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 16, 10:58 PMWill Finland be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?BUY YES0.997$8,819Above conviction band — net-negative
May 14, 04:26 PMWill Bulgaria advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?BUY NO0.087$1,005Killed band — neutral expectation
May 14, 12:33 AMWill Australia win the second Eurovision Semi-Final?BUY NO0.630$2,086Above conviction band — net-negative
May 12, 09:31 PMWill Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-12?BUY YES0.999$65.5KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 9, 12:45 PMWill FC Augsburg win on 2026-05-09?BUY NO0.520$10.8K—
May 8, 06:42 PMWill US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2026-05-08?BUY NO0.630$8,920Above conviction band — net-negative
May 7, 06:38 PMWill RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-05-07?SELL NO0.500$6,109— (SELL)
Apr 30, 10:00 PMIsrael x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?BUY YES0.997$152.2KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Apr 30, 10:00 PMUS x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?SELL NO0.998$152.2K— (SELL)
Apr 30, 05:59 PMUS x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?SELL NO0.998$1,297— (SELL)
Apr 30, 12:38 AMUS x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?BUY NO0.997$27.9KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Apr 26, 10:41 AMLoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group AscendBUY YES0.790$38.8KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Apr 19, 10:10 AM0xa664ea5fBUY0.300$34.8KCheap band — no rep
Apr 19, 09:44 AMIndian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Rajasthan RoyalsBUY0.596$3,734—
Apr 19, 09:39 AM0xee64d5e1BUY0.820$3,879Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 19, 09:38 AMIndian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Rajasthan RoyalsBUY0.592$2,426—
Apr 19, 09:36 AM0xee64d5e1BUY0.820$38.8KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Apr 19, 09:14 AMIndian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Rajasthan RoyalsBUY0.600$1,879—
Apr 18, 11:35 AM0x4c27acaaBUY0.580$29.0K—
Apr 18, 08:39 AMIndian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Delhi CapitalsBUY0.620$1,136Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 18, 08:28 AMIndian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Delhi CapitalsBUY0.620$1,163Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 18, 08:16 AMIndian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Delhi CapitalsBUY0.620$2,051Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 18, 08:10 AMIndian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Delhi CapitalsBUY0.620$3,421Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 18, 08:07 AMIndian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Delhi CapitalsBUY0.620$3,062Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 18, 07:58 AMIndian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Delhi CapitalsBUY0.620$1,528Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 18, 07:51 AMIndian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Delhi CapitalsBUY0.620$1,971Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 18, 07:44 AMIndian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Delhi CapitalsBUY0.620$2,555Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 18, 07:34 AMIndian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Delhi CapitalsBUY0.620$1,596Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 18, 07:30 AMIndian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Delhi CapitalsBUY0.620$1,507Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 18, 07:16 AMIndian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Delhi CapitalsBUY0.620$1,754Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 18, 07:11 AMIndian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Delhi CapitalsBUY0.620$1,357Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 18, 07:07 AMIndian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Delhi CapitalsBUY0.620$2,216Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 18, 07:01 AMIndian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Delhi CapitalsBUY0.620$1,419Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 18, 06:57 AMIndian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Delhi CapitalsBUY0.620$1,747Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 18, 06:53 AMIndian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Delhi CapitalsBUY0.620$3,280Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 18, 06:50 AMIndian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Delhi CapitalsBUY0.620$1,665Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 18, 06:44 AMIndian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Delhi CapitalsBUY0.620$3,984Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 18, 06:29 AMIndian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Delhi CapitalsBUY0.620$1,178Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 18, 06:00 AMIndian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Delhi CapitalsBUY0.620$3,789Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 17, 10:02 PM0x4c27acaaBUY0.370$2,899Killed band — neutral expectation
Apr 16, 04:17 AM0x06b9ca38BUY0.750$1,538Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 15, 02:55 PM0xaaa7899fBUY0.850$1,040Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 15, 03:38 AM0x3ec95adbBUY0.550$12.4K—
Apr 15, 01:18 AM0x3ec95adbBUY0.550$5,151—
Apr 14, 11:22 PM0xddad0d92BUY0.479$18.7K—
Apr 14, 01:43 PM0x5c0515f7BUY0.350$10.8KKilled band — neutral expectation
Apr 12, 11:58 PM0x75d1c98aBUY0.670$4,843Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 11, 03:45 PM0x0f691c3cBUY NO0.280$4,738Cheap band — no rep
Apr 10, 06:26 PM0xbbc4f056BUY0.660$11.3KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Apr 9, 02:23 AM0xf446be36BUY NO0.650$1,365Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 9, 02:17 AM0xf446be36BUY NO0.640$1,984Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 9, 02:13 AM0xf446be36BUY NO0.630$1,953Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 9, 02:10 AM0xf446be36BUY NO0.630$3,717Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 8, 09:39 PMUS forces enter Iran by December 31?BUY YES0.998$27.2KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Apr 6, 11:44 AM1801773BUY0.680$18.5KAbove conviction band — net-negative

Markets active in

28 markets · sorted by volume
MarketCategoryTradesVolumeNet BUY
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Other3$181.4K$-125,514
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?Other1$152.2K+$152.2K
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Other2$110.0K+$110.0K
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-12?Other1$65.5K+$65.5K
0xee64d5e1—2$42.7K+$42.7K
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Delhi CapitalsOther20$42.4K+$42.4K
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group AscendOther1$38.8K+$38.8K
0xa664ea5f—1$34.8K+$34.8K
0x4c27acaa—2$31.9K+$31.9K
US forces enter Iran by December 31?Other1$27.2K+$27.2K
0xddad0d92—1$18.7K+$18.7K
1801773—1$18.5K+$18.5K
0x3ec95adb—2$17.5K+$17.5K
0xbbc4f056—1$11.3K+$11.3K
0x5c0515f7—1$10.8K+$10.8K
Will FC Augsburg win on 2026-05-09?Other1$10.8K+$10.8K
0xf446be36—4$9,019+$9,019
Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2026-05-08?Other1$8,920+$8,920
Will Finland be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?Other1$8,819+$8,819
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Rajasthan RoyalsOther3$8,038+$8,038
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-05-07?Other1$6,109$-6,109
0x75d1c98a—1$4,843+$4,843
0x0f691c3c—1$4,738+$4,738
Will Australia win the second Eurovision Semi-Final?Other1$2,086+$2,086
0x06b9ca38—1$1,538+$1,538
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Other1$1,115+$1,115
0xaaa7899f—1$1,040+$1,040
Will Bulgaria advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?Other1$1,005+$1,005