| Jun 13, 06:03 AM | Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.954 | $1,950 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 13, 05:11 AM | Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.956 | $2,868 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 13, 05:10 AM | Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.954 | $4,131 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 13, 05:09 AM | Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.953 | $9,587 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 12, 06:18 PM | Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.973 | $24.9K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 12, 06:07 PM | Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.944 | $5,354 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 12, 12:30 PM | Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.965 | $24.6K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 08:09 PM | Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.969 | $6,713 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 08:08 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.801 | $17.8K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 06:24 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.875 | $4,391 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 06:14 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.874 | $1,276 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 06:10 PM | Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.988 | $8,615 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 2, 11:31 AM | Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.850 | $1,892 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 05:48 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.920 | $14.1K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 05:42 PM | Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.860 | $10.2K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 05:42 PM | Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.848 | $5,193 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 03:59 PM | Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.900 | $1,216 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 07:17 AM | Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.950 | $7,407 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 07:11 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.880 | $8,526 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 07:09 AM | Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.940 | $2,977 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 29, 10:54 AM | Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.970 | $6,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 27, 11:33 AM | Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.934 | $1,874 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 27, 08:25 AM | Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.926 | $2,448 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 27, 08:25 AM | Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.925 | $3,566 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 09:40 AM | Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.904 | $3,853 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 05:44 AM | Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.904 | $45.2K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 05:44 AM | Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.904 | $17.7K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 05:42 AM | Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.904 | $9,040 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 24, 07:52 PM | Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.917 | $14.9K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 24, 07:41 PM | Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.914 | $9,157 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 24, 10:47 AM | Will 80 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24? | BUY NO | 0.981 | $4,427 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 06:20 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.618 | $2,098 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 04:37 AM | Iran closes its airspace by May 24? | SELL YES | 0.987 | $1,386 | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 04:30 AM | Iran closes its airspace by May 24? | BUY YES | 0.987 | $1,386 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 22, 05:09 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.820 | $2,740 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 22, 11:49 AM | Trump declassifies new UFO files by December 31? | BUY YES | 0.998 | $1,292 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 22, 11:48 AM | Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 22? | BUY YES | 0.990 | $2,003 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 22, 06:56 AM | Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China? | BUY YES | 0.777 | $1,488 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 22, 06:54 AM | Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China? | BUY YES | 0.871 | $4,910 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 21, 03:03 PM | US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? | BUY YES | 0.998 | $6,114 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 21, 03:01 PM | US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? | BUY YES | 0.990 | $3,496 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 21, 02:56 PM | Will 60-79 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24? | BUY NO | 0.906 | $1,230 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 20, 06:58 PM | Will Starmer say "Brexit" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event? | BUY YES | 0.999 | $1,998 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 18, 12:12 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.900 | $5,607 | — (SELL) |
| May 17, 05:48 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.930 | $4,508 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 17, 07:51 AM | Will China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22? | BUY YES | 0.980 | $2,455 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 17, 07:07 AM | Will China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22? | BUY YES | 0.886 | $1,323 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 17, 07:06 AM | Will China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22? | BUY YES | 0.810 | $4,481 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 14, 10:25 PM | Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 17, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.860 | $1,472 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 12, 09:16 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.986 | $3,944 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 12, 09:07 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.830 | $1,148 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 12, 09:06 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.985 | $3,960 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 10, 03:43 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.959 | $3,621 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 10, 08:08 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.920 | $23.9K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 10, 08:08 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.965 | $5,276 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 7, 09:53 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.963 | $1,708 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 7, 09:50 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.690 | $2,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 7, 09:33 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.880 | $12.5K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 7, 04:42 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.940 | $6,853 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 7, 04:38 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.940 | $4,393 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 7, 04:37 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.930 | $1,436 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 7, 04:34 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.930 | $9,273 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 7, 04:34 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.920 | $5,469 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 6, 09:13 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.897 | $1,407 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 6, 09:13 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.895 | $1,868 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 6, 09:13 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.894 | $6,170 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 6, 09:10 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.845 | $8,941 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 6, 09:09 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.842 | $2,128 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 6, 09:08 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.728 | $18.0K | — (SELL) |
| May 6, 09:08 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.382 | $1,146 | — (SELL) |
| May 5, 03:32 PM | Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by May 15? | BUY NO | 0.964 | $1,603 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 5, 03:32 PM | Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by May 15? | BUY NO | 0.960 | $3,411 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 4, 06:40 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.860 | $5,504 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 4, 06:12 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.860 | $9,516 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 4, 06:11 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.670 | $2,009 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 4, 06:09 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.960 | $12.1K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 4, 10:17 AM | Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.796 | $1,030 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 4, 10:16 AM | Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.795 | $1,177 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 3, 04:41 AM | Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 3, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.900 | $1,861 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 1, 03:12 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.910 | $2,492 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 1, 01:53 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.910 | $4,219 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 1, 12:55 PM | Nasdaq round-the-clock trading by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.879 | $1,344 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 1, 12:41 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.940 | $9,310 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 1, 12:40 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.940 | $8,478 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 1, 10:57 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.820 | $5,146 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 1, 10:55 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.950 | $4,758 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 1, 10:54 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.950 | $1,374 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 25, 05:12 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.965 | $44.9K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 24, 11:41 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.870 | $19.3K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 24, 11:29 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.870 | $12.9K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 24, 11:18 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.876 | $81.7K | — (SELL) |
| Apr 23, 07:55 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.850 | $50.7K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 16, 09:05 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.630 | $16.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 16, 09:04 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.626 | $1,432 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 16, 09:03 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.800 | $22.5K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 16, 09:03 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.420 | $6,261 | —— |
| Apr 16, 09:03 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.410 | $1,696 | —— |
| Apr 16, 09:00 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.790 | $30.7K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 14, 03:59 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.672 | $1,293 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 14, 03:59 PM | Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in April? | SELL NO | 0.930 | $1,179 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 13, 04:39 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.820 | $1,588 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 13, 10:18 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.710 | $3,277 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 13, 10:18 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.700 | $1,273 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 13, 07:05 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.739 | $2,805 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 9, 09:14 AM | Will Pam Bondi be held in contempt of Congress by April 30? | BUY NO | 0.859 | $1,049 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 7, 11:25 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | SELL NO | 0.330 | $3,995 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 7, 10:39 PM | 0x4c5701bc | SELL NO | 0.400 | $2,165 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 7, 09:34 PM | 0x4c5701bc | BUY NO | 0.775 | $4,146 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 7, 08:34 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | BUY NO | 0.720 | $1,042 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 7, 07:06 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | BUY NO | 0.780 | $1,683 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 7, 06:30 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | BUY NO | 0.750 | $1,815 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 7, 06:02 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | BUY NO | 0.780 | $1,170 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 5, 05:26 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | BUY NO | 0.860 | $1,032 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 4, 08:53 PM | Will the DHS shutdown end between April 5-8, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.980 | $2,253 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 4, 04:39 PM | 0x10d4b55e | SELL NO | 0.930 | $1,372 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 2, 08:40 PM | 0x10d4b55e | BUY NO | 0.900 | $1,328 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 2, 05:10 AM | Will the DHS shutdown end between April 5-8, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.621 | $1,672 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 2, 05:00 AM | Will the DHS shutdown end between April 1-4, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.878 | $1,935 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 1, 01:12 PM | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? | BUY NO | 0.660 | $1,661 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |