| Jun 20, 10:09 PM | Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? | SELL YES | 0.999 | $31.8K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 20, 07:58 PM | Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? | BUY YES | 0.660 | $21.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 13, 06:45 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? | BUY NO | 0.911 | $72.8K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 13, 06:45 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? | SELL NO | 0.993 | $301.4K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 11:55 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? | BUY NO | 0.921 | $71.7K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 08:26 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? | BUY NO | 0.939 | $17.1K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 08:26 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? | BUY NO | 0.879 | $54.5K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 08:25 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? | BUY NO | 0.960 | $71.6K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 10, 10:47 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? | BUY NO | 0.980 | $3,003 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 10, 10:47 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? | BUY NO | 0.967 | $68.7K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 10, 08:50 AM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.965 | $71.8K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 10, 08:42 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? | BUY NO | 0.962 | $48.4K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 10, 08:42 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? | BUY NO | 0.886 | $34.5K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 10, 08:41 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? | BUY NO | 0.945 | $72.8K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 6, 07:51 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? | BUY NO | 0.977 | $72.8K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 6, 07:49 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? | BUY NO | 0.959 | $72.8K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 6, 07:49 AM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.871 | $46.1K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 6, 07:49 AM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.957 | $26.7K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 4, 06:57 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? | BUY NO | 0.909 | $36.7K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 4, 06:50 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? | BUY NO | 0.868 | $34.3K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 4, 06:49 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? | BUY NO | 0.906 | $72.8K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 4, 06:49 AM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 7, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.958 | $72.1K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 4, 12:00 AM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.497 | $15.7K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 3, 08:13 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? | BUY NO | 0.920 | $15.2K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 3, 08:13 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? | BUY NO | 0.910 | $57.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 2, 08:52 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? | BUY NO | 0.839 | $50.2K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 2, 08:52 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? | BUY NO | 0.849 | $22.1K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 30, 05:10 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.818 | $47.2K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 30, 05:10 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? | SELL NO | 0.999 | $47.2K | — (SELL) |
| May 29, 05:38 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? | BUY NO | 0.940 | $8,249 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 29, 05:38 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? | BUY NO | 0.931 | $35.8K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 29, 05:37 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.705 | $72.8K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 29, 05:37 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? | SELL NO | 0.998 | $116.8K | — (SELL) |
| May 28, 05:54 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? | BUY NO | 0.951 | $72.6K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 27, 11:16 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.748 | $45.2K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 27, 06:19 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? | BUY NO | 0.907 | $39.3K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 26, 08:00 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? | BUY NO | 0.941 | $36.4K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 26, 08:00 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? | BUY NO | 0.894 | $36.4K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 08:10 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? | BUY NO | 0.801 | $36.2K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 06:05 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25? | BUY NO | 0.924 | $36.3K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 19, 08:14 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.918 | $9,040 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 19, 08:14 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.863 | $63.7K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 17, 08:55 AM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.847 | $101.4K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 17, 08:55 AM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.941 | $44.1K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 16, 11:00 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.471 | $14.9K | —— |
| May 16, 10:51 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.807 | $38.9K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 16, 10:51 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.950 | $8,612 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 16, 10:51 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.911 | $25.3K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 16, 07:11 AM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.997 | $78.6K | — (SELL) |
| May 9, 05:09 AM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.813 | $55.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 9, 05:08 AM | US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? | BUY NO | 0.903 | $30.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 9, 05:07 AM | Iran closes its airspace by May 8? | SELL NO | 0.999 | $85.6K | — (SELL) |
| May 8, 10:25 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.884 | $4,549 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 8, 10:25 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.806 | $32.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 7, 01:39 PM | US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? | BUY NO | 0.878 | $17.6K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 7, 01:39 PM | US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? | BUY NO | 0.846 | $19.1K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 7, 08:11 AM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.770 | $28.6K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 7, 08:11 AM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.801 | $44.8K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 5, 08:37 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 8? | BUY NO | 0.856 | $73.4K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 5, 08:20 PM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.941 | $73.4K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 25, 07:50 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.982 | $24.5K | — (SELL) |
| Apr 25, 07:49 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.998 | $21.1K | — (SELL) |
| Apr 25, 07:49 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.914 | $27.7K | — (SELL) |
| Apr 24, 08:42 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.628 | $19.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 24, 08:41 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.799 | $19.4K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 23, 06:43 PM | US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.998 | $43.4K | — (SELL) |
| Apr 22, 05:52 PM | US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.724 | $14.6K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 22, 03:06 PM | US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.856 | $20.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 22, 07:51 AM | US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.820 | $10.3K | — (SELL) |
| Apr 22, 07:25 AM | US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.796 | $10.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 21, 09:15 AM | 0x6c31c73a | BUY NO | 0.908 | $12.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 21, 08:51 AM | US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.809 | $10.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 21, 08:50 AM | 0x6c31c73a | BUY NO | 0.879 | $8,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 7, 08:02 PM | 0xbc0a2d49 | BUY NO | 0.594 | $7,195 | —— |
| Mar 29, 01:00 AM | 0x045c8b68 | SELL | 0.999 | $16.5K | — (SELL) |
| Mar 28, 11:50 PM | 0x045c8b68 | BUY | 0.436 | $7,193 | —— |