Back to whale feed

Melody626

Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0xecaa…77a9 with our methodology badges per row.

0xecaa8806a9a05049d7d5260a33dc924220e377a9·Polymarket profile ↗
Resolved trades
122
lifetime
PnL per $
-56%
historical realized
Win rate
32.0%
volume-weighted
Volume resolved
$743.7K
across all resolved markets
Wave-34 gate verdict: ✗ fails

The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. 122 resolved trades · -56% PnL/$. Misses the threshold; cheap-band BUYs would surface as Watch tier only.

Trades (90d)
197
Distinct markets
101
Volume (90d)
$1.07M
avg $5,448 / trade
BUY vs SELL
$571.8K / $501.5K
net direction

Recent trades

last 197 · 90d window
WhenMarketSidePriceSizeMethodology
Jun 13, 04:05 PMUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?BUY YES0.710$1,788Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 13, 05:52 AMUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?BUY YES0.620$2,728Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 13, 05:51 AMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19?BUY YES0.599$1,971
Jun 13, 04:47 AMUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?BUY YES0.590$2,695
Jun 12, 11:20 PMWill United States win on 2026-06-12?BUY YES0.470$1,500
Jun 12, 06:31 AMSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?BUY YES0.370$1,633Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 12, 06:06 AMSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?BUY YES0.770$2,757Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 05:53 AMSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?BUY YES0.520$1,681
Jun 12, 05:53 AMSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?BUY YES0.770$4,988Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 05:01 AMSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?BUY YES0.270$2,700Cheap band — no rep
Jun 12, 05:01 AMSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?BUY YES0.690$5,807Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 09:24 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?BUY NO0.700$3,346Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 06:43 PMWill Mexico win on 2026-06-11?BUY YES0.690$1,380Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 10:59 PMWill the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?BUY YES0.624$6,240Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 05:36 AMWill Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.1–0.2%?BUY NO0.799$1,853Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 06:12 AMWill Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election?BUY YES0.790$1,520Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 11:14 PMWill the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?BUY NO0.787$2,983Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 11:14 PMWill the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?BUY YES0.788$11.9KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 07:21 PMWill the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?BUY NO0.781$4,208Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 07:21 PMWill the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?BUY YES0.780$2,878Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 05:44 PMWill Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?BUY NO0.766$8,809Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 05:04 AMWill Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?BUY YES0.720$1,800Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 03:20 AMWill Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?BUY NO0.619$3,095Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 03:06 AMWill Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?BUY YES0.480$1,925
Jun 8, 02:01 AMWill Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?BUY NO0.545$5,552
Jun 7, 11:58 PMWill Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%?BUY YES0.790$1,771Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 04:08 PMWill Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%?BUY YES0.577$2,216
Jun 6, 11:20 PMWill Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?BUY YES0.670$5,884Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 6, 08:03 PMWill Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%?BUY YES0.459$2,827
Jun 6, 04:12 PMWill Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?BUY NO0.619$4,153Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 6, 05:32 AMWill the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?BUY NO0.800$4,800Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 6, 05:32 AMWill the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?BUY YES0.801$8,010Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 6, 04:41 AMWill "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 52m?BUY NO0.700$1,208Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 5, 02:28 AMWill Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?BUY YES0.540$1,065
Jun 5, 02:28 AMWill Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?SELL YES0.998$63.9K— (SELL)
Jun 4, 01:22 AMWill Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?BUY YES0.758$1,991Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 3, 11:17 PMWill Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?BUY NO0.800$1,839Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 3, 11:13 PMWill Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?BUY YES0.459$1,008
Jun 3, 09:38 PMWill Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral ElectionBUY NO0.600$2,340
Jun 3, 07:10 AMWill Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral ElectionBUY YES0.810$16.2KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 3, 06:22 AMWill Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral ElectionBUY YES0.810$10.9KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 3, 04:20 AMWill Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?BUY YES0.810$16.6KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 3, 03:00 AMWill both candidates advancing to the general election for Governor of California from the June 2, 2026 primary be affiliated with the Democratic Party?BUY NO0.702$1,100Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 3, 12:38 AMWill Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?BUY YES0.680$1,064Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 3, 12:37 AMWill Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?BUY YES0.699$1,128Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 2, 11:53 PMWill Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?BUY YES0.760$5,598Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 2, 09:48 PMWill Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?BUY YES0.700$1,231Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 2, 08:49 PMWill Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?BUY YES0.660$1,979Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 2, 08:49 PMWill Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?BUY YES0.738$1,216Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 2, 08:48 PMWill Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?BUY YES0.760$1,151Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 2, 08:48 PMWill Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?BUY YES0.763$3,844Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 2, 06:38 PMWill Xavier Becerra win the 2026 California Governor Primary Election by 5–10%?BUY NO0.800$5,200Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 2, 03:51 PMWill Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?BUY YES0.773$9,942Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 2, 03:50 PMWill Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?BUY NO0.700$1,050Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 2, 07:12 AMWill Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?BUY YES0.659$3,136Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 2, 05:57 AMWill Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?BUY YES0.765$3,078Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 2, 12:44 AMWill Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?BUY NO0.690$1,113Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 07:09 PMWill Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?BUY NO0.660$5,983Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 07:09 PMWill Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?BUY YES0.748$1,779Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 02:29 AMWill one Democratic Party candidate and one Republican Party candidate advance to the general election for Governor of California from the June 2, 2026 primary?BUY YES0.765$3,269Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 02:27 AMWill Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?BUY NO0.656$1,516Above conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 10:00 PMWill Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?BUY YES0.886$2,813Above conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 09:50 PMWill Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?BUY YES0.822$2,384Above conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 09:50 PMWill Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?BUY YES0.800$1,260Above conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 09:40 PMWill Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?BUY YES0.728$5,025Above conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 08:52 PMWill Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?BUY YES0.670$2,200Above conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 04:33 PMWill Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?BUY YES0.700$6,865Above conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 04:33 PMWill Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?BUY YES0.690$1,759Above conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 03:28 AMWill "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 25m?BUY YES0.854$1,103Above conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 03:24 AMWill "The Breadwinner" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 7m?BUY YES0.809$1,122Above conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 01:26 AMWill Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?BUY YES0.650$10.2KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 30, 10:53 PMWill Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?BUY YES0.630$2,108Above conviction band — net-negative
May 30, 06:23 PMWill Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?BUY YES0.620$2,745Above conviction band — net-negative
May 30, 06:21 PMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?BUY NO0.890$1,532Above conviction band — net-negative
May 30, 07:57 AMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?SELL YES0.340$2,840— (SELL)
May 30, 07:55 AMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?SELL NO0.840$3,179— (SELL)
May 30, 01:43 AMWill "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 79m?BUY YES0.899$9,593Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 12:11 AMWill "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 79m?BUY YES0.880$5,305Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 12:11 AMWill "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 79m?BUY YES0.862$5,373Above conviction band — net-negative
May 27, 07:12 PMWill Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?SELL NO0.999$13.8K— (SELL)
May 27, 12:22 AMWill "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 92m?SELL NO0.999$15.3K— (SELL)
May 26, 08:34 PMWill Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by 9% or more?BUY YES0.710$3,693Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 05:16 PMWill the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?SELL YES0.999$5,523— (SELL)
May 24, 11:34 PMWill Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?SELL YES0.330$1,384— (SELL)
May 24, 07:45 PMWill Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by 9% or more?BUY YES0.830$4,150Above conviction band — net-negative
May 24, 05:24 PMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?BUY NO0.593$2,625
May 24, 02:07 AMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?BUY NO0.840$2,489Above conviction band — net-negative
May 24, 01:47 AMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?BUY NO0.810$1,205Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 07:12 PMIran closes its airspace by May 31?BUY NO0.649$1,618Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 07:07 PMWill the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?BUY YES0.830$7,210Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 07:07 PMWill the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26?BUY YES0.830$1,901Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 07:04 PMWill the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28?BUY YES0.800$1,839Above conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 11:49 PMWill "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be between 102m and 112m?BUY YES0.299$1,550Cheap band — no rep
May 20, 08:43 PMWill the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?BUY YES0.830$1,374Above conviction band — net-negative
May 20, 06:38 PMIran closes its airspace by May 24?BUY NO0.810$2,141Above conviction band — net-negative
May 20, 06:36 PMWill "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 92m?BUY NO0.638$1,312Above conviction band — net-negative
May 20, 07:17 AMIsrael closes its airspace by May 24?BUY NO0.740$1,447Above conviction band — net-negative
May 20, 01:07 AMIran closes its airspace by May 24?BUY NO0.680$2,380Above conviction band — net-negative
May 19, 11:16 PMWill Ed Gallrein win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by 9% or more?BUY YES0.836$1,549Above conviction band — net-negative
May 19, 10:56 PMWill Ed Gallrein win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by 9% or more?BUY NO0.570$5,042
May 19, 10:54 PMWill Ed Gallrein win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by 9% or more?BUY NO0.557$2,747
May 19, 09:38 PMWill Mike Collins be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia?BUY YES0.708$2,594Above conviction band — net-negative
May 19, 07:00 AMWill Burt Jones win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary election?BUY YES0.598$1,651
May 19, 06:57 AMWill Chris Rabb be the Democratic nominee for PA-03?BUY YES0.610$3,050Above conviction band — net-negative
May 19, 06:07 AMWill Mike Collins be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia?BUY YES0.620$1,634Above conviction band — net-negative
May 19, 04:33 AMWill Burt Jones win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary election?BUY YES0.600$1,744
May 19, 02:06 AMWill Mike Collins be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia?BUY YES0.597$1,456
May 18, 09:19 PMWill Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?BUY NO0.630$3,361Above conviction band — net-negative
May 18, 02:20 AMIran closes its airspace by May 24?BUY NO0.710$1,751Above conviction band — net-negative
May 15, 04:09 PMWill Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?BUY YES0.747$1,822Above conviction band — net-negative
May 15, 07:37 AMWill Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?BUY YES0.900$13.1KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 15, 07:33 AMWill Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?BUY YES0.875$1,862Above conviction band — net-negative
May 15, 07:32 AMWill Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?BUY YES0.870$4,340Above conviction band — net-negative
May 15, 07:32 AMWill Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?BUY YES0.872$4,339Above conviction band — net-negative
May 15, 07:25 AMWill Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?BUY YES0.868$1,765Above conviction band — net-negative
May 15, 07:21 AMWill Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?BUY YES0.846$1,371Above conviction band — net-negative
May 15, 04:16 AMWill Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping?BUY NO0.849$4,574Above conviction band — net-negative
May 13, 06:18 PMWill Trump say "Peng" during events with Xi Jinping?BUY NO0.448$1,444
May 10, 01:36 AMWill "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 38m?BUY NO0.590$1,101
May 6, 09:51 PMWill "The Devil Wears Prada 2" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 50m?BUY YES0.891$6,204Above conviction band — net-negative
May 6, 06:54 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?BUY YES0.152$2,064Killed band — neutral expectation
May 6, 06:50 PMIran closes its airspace by May 31?BUY NO0.738$3,925Above conviction band — net-negative
May 6, 06:06 AMWill Plaid Cymru win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election?BUY YES0.810$3,581Above conviction band — net-negative
May 6, 06:05 AMWill Reform UK win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election?BUY NO0.811$3,980Above conviction band — net-negative
May 6, 05:46 AMWill Plaid Cymru win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election?BUY YES0.790$1,443Above conviction band — net-negative
May 6, 12:05 AMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?BUY NO0.830$1,172Above conviction band — net-negative
May 5, 06:03 AMWill Reform UK win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election?BUY NO0.756$1,700Above conviction band — net-negative
May 5, 05:59 AMUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?BUY NO0.700$5,573Above conviction band — net-negative
May 5, 01:17 AMIran closes its airspace by May 8?BUY NO0.750$4,500Above conviction band — net-negative
May 4, 07:58 PMWill the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?SELL NO0.999$19.1K— (SELL)
May 4, 07:58 PMWill the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?SELL YES0.999$21.4K— (SELL)
May 4, 07:58 PMWill Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election?SELL YES0.999$37.6K— (SELL)
May 4, 07:57 PMWill Trump visit China by May 15?BUY YES0.830$2,426Above conviction band — net-negative
May 4, 04:46 AMWill Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election?BUY YES0.856$1,284Above conviction band — net-negative
May 4, 04:33 AMWill Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election?BUY YES0.760$6,276Above conviction band — net-negative
May 4, 02:55 AMWill the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?BUY YES0.698$2,128Above conviction band — net-negative
May 2, 04:54 PMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?SELL NO0.999$51.8K— (SELL)
May 1, 06:19 PMUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?BUY NO0.730$1,843Above conviction band — net-negative
May 1, 06:19 PMWill the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10?BUY YES0.840$2,100Above conviction band — net-negative
May 1, 06:22 AMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?SELL NO0.999$21.7K— (SELL)
May 1, 06:21 AMTrump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?SELL NO0.999$50.4K— (SELL)
Apr 30, 06:34 AMWill "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 90m and 100m?BUY NO0.836$1,307Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 29, 11:08 PMWill "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 90m and 100m?BUY NO0.750$2,935Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 29, 04:59 PMJames Comey arrested by April 29?BUY YES0.905$1,330Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 29, 06:34 AMUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?BUY NO0.640$3,839Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 29, 06:33 AMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?BUY NO0.710$4,259Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 29, 06:33 AMTrump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?BUY NO0.660$3,959Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 28, 01:07 AMUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?BUY NO0.560$2,290
Apr 28, 12:18 AMUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?BUY NO0.720$4,308Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 26, 12:53 AMWill "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 100m?BUY NO0.800$1,546Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 25, 07:56 PMUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?BUY NO0.700$3,213Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 25, 06:40 PMUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?BUY NO0.830$1,006Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 23, 06:27 PMUS x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?SELL NO0.998$89.7K— (SELL)
Apr 21, 11:29 PMWill the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by 3-6%?BUY NO0.575$2,680
Apr 21, 08:19 PMUS x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?BUY YES0.830$3,359Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 21, 12:37 AMUS x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?BUY NO0.680$1,085Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 20, 08:56 PMWill the Virginia redistricting referendum pass?BUY YES0.840$4,794Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 20, 08:28 PMWill the Virginia redistricting referendum pass?BUY YES0.840$2,254Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 18, 05:10 PMTrump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?BUY NO0.650$1,726Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 17, 08:02 PMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?BUY NO0.610$2,132Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 17, 05:31 AMTrump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?BUY NO0.810$8,642Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 16, 07:08 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?BUY NO0.600$1,422
Apr 16, 07:06 PMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?BUY NO0.740$8,207Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 16, 06:32 AMTrump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?BUY NO0.600$6,000
Apr 15, 11:47 PMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?SELL YES0.260$2,296— (SELL)
Apr 13, 02:29 AMWill Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?BUY YES0.458$1,307
Apr 13, 02:25 AMWill Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?BUY YES0.250$2,574Cheap band — no rep
Apr 13, 02:17 AMWill Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?BUY YES0.430$2,092
Apr 13, 02:17 AMWill Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?BUY YES0.240$2,385Cheap band — no rep
Apr 13, 02:17 AMWill Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?BUY NO0.819$1,453Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 12, 06:37 PM0x0e47ad37BUY YES0.823$2,694Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 12, 06:32 PM0x0e47ad37BUY YES0.589$4,177
Apr 12, 06:17 PM0x0e47ad37BUY YES0.400$1,896Killed band — neutral expectation
Apr 12, 04:00 PM0xcb9cf7bbSELL YES0.560$4,195— (SELL)
Apr 12, 07:36 AM0x22a6788eBUY YES0.670$1,079Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 12, 01:17 AM0x14e084f7BUY NO0.621$4,252Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 11, 08:29 PM0xde38c515BUY NO0.560$1,157
Apr 11, 08:26 PM0xa312499cBUY YES0.280$1,680Cheap band — no rep
Apr 11, 08:09 AM0xcb9cf7bbBUY YES0.720$1,923Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 11, 08:08 AM0x22a6788eBUY YES0.519$1,500
Apr 8, 05:50 AMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?BUY NO0.500$1,578
Apr 7, 11:40 PMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?BUY YES0.627$1,546Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 7, 11:08 PMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?BUY YES0.500$1,426
Apr 7, 01:32 AM0x0106fd15BUY0.700$4,162Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 7, 01:31 AM0x0106fd15BUY0.710$1,457Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 5, 04:43 PM0x0106fd15BUY0.510$1,507
Apr 5, 02:19 AM0x50294abcBUY0.680$1,077Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 5, 01:41 AM0x50294abcBUY0.525$1,513
Apr 4, 10:35 PM0xa1548c18BUY0.550$2,475
Apr 4, 07:02 PM0x306d10d4SELL NO0.999$97.4K— (SELL)
Apr 4, 03:27 PM0x51c5e5e7BUY YES0.142$1,403Killed band — neutral expectation
Apr 4, 02:59 AM0x51c5e5e7BUY YES0.143$1,215Killed band — neutral expectation
Apr 1, 02:21 AM0xdb6830a6BUY NO0.798$2,830Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 31, 07:34 AM0xdb6830a6BUY NO0.749$2,203Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 29, 07:37 PM0xe285bf84BUY NO0.810$4,095Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 29, 07:04 PM0xe285bf84BUY NO0.810$1,581Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 24, 05:07 AM0x773abaa5BUY NO0.690$3,713Above conviction band — net-negative

Markets active in

101 markets · sorted by volume
MarketCategoryTradesVolumeNet BUY
0x306d10d41$97.4K$-97,406
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Other1$89.7K$-89,673
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Politics4$70.4K$-57,448
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Tech6$67.4K$-40,775
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?Politics3$58.1K$-42,688
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election?Politics3$45.2K$-30,081
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Politics7$30.9K+$30.9K
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?Sports4$29.0K+$29.0K
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral ElectionPolitics2$27.0K+$27.0K
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?Politics2$23.5K$-19,269
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?Other2$23.1K$-20,279
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Politics4$21.6K+$21.6K
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 79m?Other3$20.3K+$20.3K
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?Politics1$19.1K$-19,056
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Politics3$18.8K+$18.8K
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?Politics5$17.2K+$17.2K
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?Politics3$16.7K+$16.7K
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 92m?Other2$16.6K$-13,941
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Politics2$15.3K$-12,358
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?Politics5$13.7K+$13.7K
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?Tech3$13.6K+$13.6K
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Politics5$13.0K+$13.0K
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?Sports3$12.0K+$12.0K
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?Politics5$11.5K+$11.5K
Will Ed Gallrein win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by 9% or more?Politics3$9,337+$9,337
0x0e47ad373$8,767+$8,767
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?Politics1$8,642+$8,642
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?Other3$7,973+$7,973
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by 9% or more?Politics2$7,843+$7,843
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?Other3$7,336+$978

Showing top 30 by volume.