starbuck02

Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0xea79…a9cc with our methodology badges per row.

0xea7957606f259bcba522a4681494555547a7a9cc·Polymarket profile ↗

Resolved trades

239

lifetime

PnL per $

-28%

historical realized

Win rate

57.4%

volume-weighted

Volume resolved

$1.22M

across all resolved markets

Wave-34 gate verdict: ✗ fails

The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. 239 resolved trades · -28% PnL/$. Misses the threshold; cheap-band BUYs would surface as Watch tier only.

Trades (90d)

200

capped at 200

Distinct markets

106

Volume (90d)

$901.5K

avg $4,507 / trade

BUY vs SELL

$640.6K / $260.9K

net direction

Recent trades

last 200 · 90d window

When	Market	Side	Price	Size	Methodology
Jun 20, 10:52 PM	Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	BUY YES	0.850	$20.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 20, 07:22 PM	Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.064	$3,500	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 20, 07:21 PM	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	SELL NO	0.778	$4,304	— (SELL)
Jun 20, 06:59 PM	Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY YES	0.690	$13.2K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 20, 06:58 PM	Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	SELL YES	0.999	$12.9K	— (SELL)
Jun 20, 06:30 PM	Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY YES	0.680	$20.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 30, 07:20 PM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	SELL YES	0.320	$5,440	— (SELL)
Apr 30, 07:20 PM	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	SELL NO	0.994	$3,976	— (SELL)
Apr 30, 07:19 PM	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	SELL NO	0.991	$16.8K	— (SELL)
Apr 30, 07:19 PM	Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by April 30, 2026?	SELL NO	0.997	$3,190	— (SELL)
Apr 30, 07:18 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	SELL NO	0.780	$10.9K	— (SELL)
Apr 30, 07:18 PM	US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	SELL NO	0.998	$23.5K	— (SELL)
Apr 30, 07:17 PM	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	SELL NO	0.995	$12.9K	— (SELL)
Apr 30, 03:47 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	SELL NO	0.931	$27.9K	— (SELL)
Apr 30, 03:46 PM	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	SELL NO	0.996	$12.3K	— (SELL)
Apr 30, 03:36 PM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	SELL NO	0.996	$35.1K	— (SELL)
Apr 30, 03:35 PM	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	SELL NO	0.995	$13.9K	— (SELL)
Apr 30, 02:37 PM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	SELL NO	0.996	$11.7K	— (SELL)
Apr 30, 11:25 AM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	SELL NO	0.996	$15.6K	— (SELL)
Apr 30, 03:21 AM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	BUY YES	0.340	$1,190	Killed band — neutral expectation
Apr 30, 01:38 AM	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	SELL NO	0.993	$3,966	— (SELL)
Apr 30, 12:13 AM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	SELL NO	0.995	$7,463	— (SELL)
Apr 29, 07:57 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April?	SELL NO	0.993	$5,472	— (SELL)
Apr 29, 07:39 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April?	SELL NO	0.993	$5,472	— (SELL)
Apr 29, 07:39 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April?	SELL NO	0.995	$3,125	— (SELL)
Apr 29, 07:36 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April?	SELL NO	0.995	$14.1K	— (SELL)
Apr 29, 02:26 PM	Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner	BUY YES	0.870	$2,476	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 29, 12:39 PM	James Comey arrested by May 15?	BUY YES	0.840	$1,680	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 29, 12:39 PM	James Comey arrested by April 29?	BUY YES	0.672	$1,248	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 29, 11:17 AM	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	BUY NO	0.975	$2,498	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 29, 10:55 AM	LoL: KT Rolster vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2	SELL YES	0.790	$3,950	— (SELL)
Apr 29, 01:28 AM	LoL: KT Rolster vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2	BUY YES	0.590	$2,950	—
Apr 29, 01:00 AM	Los Angeles Angels vs. Chicago White Sox	BUY YES	0.770	$1,292	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 28, 09:14 PM	Los Angeles Angels vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5	BUY YES	0.490	$2,162	—
Apr 28, 07:44 PM	Miami Marlins vs. Los Angeles Dodgers	BUY YES	0.720	$7,500	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 28, 07:27 PM	Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28?	BUY YES	0.357	$1,784	Killed band — neutral expectation
Apr 28, 06:13 PM	Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by April 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.950	$1,269	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 28, 04:57 PM	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	BUY NO	0.980	$4,410	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 28, 04:53 PM	Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by April 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.970	$1,769	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 28, 02:16 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April?	BUY NO	0.987	$2,591	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 28, 01:57 PM	Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.490	$3,185	—
Apr 28, 01:50 PM	Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026?	BUY YES	0.510	$1,505	—
Apr 28, 01:43 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	BUY NO	0.790	$3,950	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 28, 10:56 AM	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.969	$2,210	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 28, 10:47 AM	LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner	BUY YES	0.570	$1,234	—
Apr 28, 10:46 AM	LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Rounds 1-2	BUY YES	0.330	$1,617	Killed band — neutral expectation
Apr 28, 10:35 AM	LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Rounds 1-2	BUY YES	0.806	$5,965	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 28, 12:48 AM	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	BUY NO	0.975	$8,508	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 28, 12:47 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April?	BUY NO	0.750	$1,541	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 27, 09:44 PM	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.870	$2,171	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 27, 09:33 PM	Golden Knights vs. Utah: O/U 6.5	BUY YES	0.610	$10.6K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 27, 08:54 PM	Golden Knights vs. Utah	BUY YES	0.540	$3,102	—
Apr 27, 08:53 PM	Golden Knights vs. Utah	BUY YES	0.540	$13.3K	—
Apr 27, 02:44 PM	Dota 2: 1win vs Power Rangers (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Playoffs	BUY YES	0.560	$2,893	—
Apr 27, 02:37 PM	Dota 2: 1win vs Power Rangers (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Playoffs	BUY YES	0.560	$5,537	—
Apr 27, 02:35 PM	Dota 2: 1win vs Power Rangers (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Playoffs	BUY YES	0.571	$4,072	—
Apr 27, 02:21 PM	Dota 2: 1win vs Power Rangers (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Playoffs	BUY YES	0.576	$2,591	—
Apr 27, 12:49 PM	Dota 2: 1win vs Power Rangers - Game 2 Winner	BUY YES	0.575	$1,572	—
Apr 27, 12:41 PM	Dota 2: 1win vs Power Rangers - Game 1 Winner	BUY YES	0.559	$1,015	—
Apr 27, 12:32 PM	Counter-Strike: BIG vs Nemiga (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs	BUY YES	0.323	$4,491	Killed band — neutral expectation
Apr 27, 12:27 PM	Dota 2: 1win vs Power Rangers (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Playoffs	BUY YES	0.570	$5,053	—
Apr 27, 11:16 AM	Dota 2: Cheeki_Breeki vs L1ga Team (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Playoffs	BUY YES	0.610	$4,369	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 27, 11:15 AM	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.910	$11.4K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 27, 02:23 AM	Lakers vs. Rockets	BUY YES	0.280	$1,096	Cheap band — no rep
Apr 27, 02:21 AM	Oilers vs. Ducks	BUY YES	0.807	$7,320	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 27, 12:55 AM	Lightning vs. Canadiens	BUY YES	0.740	$1,468	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 27, 12:42 AM	Los Angeles Angels vs. Kansas City Royals	BUY YES	0.970	$4,761	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 27, 12:34 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?	BUY NO	0.940	$9,398	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 26, 11:13 PM	Lightning vs. Canadiens	BUY YES	0.480	$1,124	—
Apr 26, 11:08 PM	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	BUY YES	0.920	$3,450	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 26, 10:57 PM	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	BUY NO	0.960	$2,400	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 26, 10:56 PM	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	BUY NO	0.959	$1,015	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 26, 10:07 PM	Chicago Cubs vs. Los Angeles Dodgers	BUY YES	0.972	$1,131	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 26, 10:06 PM	Chicago Cubs vs. Los Angeles Dodgers	BUY YES	0.969	$1,233	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 26, 10:05 PM	Spurs vs. Trail Blazers	BUY YES	0.996	$2,940	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 26, 10:05 PM	Spurs vs. Trail Blazers	BUY YES	0.995	$2,455	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 26, 10:03 PM	Chicago Cubs vs. Los Angeles Dodgers	BUY YES	0.980	$1,126	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 26, 06:32 PM	Avalanche vs. Kings	BUY YES	0.620	$4,903	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 26, 06:32 PM	Chicago Cubs vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5	BUY YES	0.450	$3,319	—
Apr 26, 06:17 PM	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?	BUY NO	0.999	$9,990	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 26, 06:14 PM	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	BUY NO	0.960	$4,630	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 26, 06:12 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April?	BUY NO	0.970	$9,687	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 26, 06:12 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?	BUY NO	0.930	$3,373	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 26, 05:05 PM	LoL: Shifters vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - LEC Regular Season	BUY YES	0.700	$1,073	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 26, 05:05 PM	LoL: Shifters vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - LEC Regular Season	BUY YES	0.700	$1,700	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 26, 04:55 PM	LoL: Shifters vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - LEC Regular Season	BUY YES	0.717	$3,885	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 26, 04:53 PM	LoL: Shifters vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - LEC Regular Season	BUY YES	0.700	$2,071	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 26, 04:51 PM	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026?	BUY NO	0.900	$1,661	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 26, 04:45 PM	LoL: Shifters vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner	BUY YES	0.940	$1,081	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 26, 04:44 PM	LoL: Shifters vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner	BUY YES	0.939	$1,243	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 26, 04:34 PM	LoL: Shifters vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - LEC Regular Season	BUY YES	0.879	$1,037	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 26, 11:40 AM	Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Aurora (BO5) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs	BUY YES	0.550	$1,356	—
Apr 26, 11:09 AM	Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Aurora (BO5) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs	BUY YES	0.570	$5,625	—
Apr 26, 11:03 AM	LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner	BUY YES	0.760	$5,065	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 26, 03:43 AM	Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	BUY NO	0.704	$1,639	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 26, 03:38 AM	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	BUY NO	0.955	$5,497	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 26, 03:33 AM	Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs Nongshim Red Force (+1.5)	BUY YES	0.570	$1,115	—
Apr 26, 03:32 AM	Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-04-26?	BUY YES	0.710	$2,287	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 26, 03:30 AM	Will Trump say "Karoline" or "Leavitt" during WHCA Dinner events?	BUY NO	0.999	$1,053	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 26, 03:29 AM	Will Trump say "Midterm" or "Election" 3+ times during WHCA Dinner events?	BUY NO	0.999	$1,164	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 26, 03:27 AM	Will anyone be kicked out of the WHCA Dinner?	BUY YES	0.996	$3,610	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 26, 12:01 AM	LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2	BUY YES	0.840	$1,672	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 25, 11:37 PM	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	BUY NO	0.949	$1,834	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 25, 10:29 PM	Knicks vs. Hawks	BUY YES	0.630	$2,719	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 25, 08:35 PM	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.880	$3,780	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 25, 08:31 PM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	BUY YES	0.470	$1,988	—
Apr 25, 08:29 PM	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026?	BUY NO	0.910	$3,801	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 25, 08:29 PM	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026?	BUY NO	0.900	$2,822	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 25, 08:29 PM	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026?	BUY NO	0.950	$12.2K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 25, 06:40 PM	Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs	BUY YES	0.500	$1,724	—
Apr 25, 05:57 PM	Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs	BUY YES	0.660	$1,838	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 25, 05:40 PM	Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs	BUY YES	0.740	$4,183	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 25, 02:12 PM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.940	$4,700	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 25, 01:33 PM	Dota 2: Aurora vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner	BUY YES	0.480	$3,307	—
Apr 25, 08:32 AM	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026?	BUY NO	0.956	$4,465	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 25, 08:30 AM	Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	BUY YES	0.920	$1,090	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 25, 08:22 AM	US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?	BUY NO	0.937	$2,342	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 25, 08:07 AM	Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs	BUY YES	0.700	$3,469	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 25, 02:21 AM	Lakers vs. Rockets	BUY YES	0.570	$2,251	—
Apr 25, 02:19 AM	Los Angeles Angels vs. Kansas City Royals	BUY YES	0.977	$1,569	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 25, 02:19 AM	Los Angeles Angels vs. Kansas City Royals	BUY YES	0.975	$1,076	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 25, 02:18 AM	Los Angeles Angels vs. Kansas City Royals	BUY YES	0.978	$1,735	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 25, 02:17 AM	New York Yankees vs. Houston Astros	BUY YES	0.999	$7,110	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 23, 03:05 AM	LoL: Gen.G vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2	BUY YES	0.930	$13.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 22, 09:46 AM	LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2	BUY YES	0.810	$20.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 22, 12:12 AM	Canadiens vs. Lightning	BUY	0.600	$1,435	—
Apr 22, 12:11 AM	0x6c31c73a	SELL NO	0.998	$2,483	— (SELL)
Apr 21, 09:41 PM	0x6c31c73a	SELL NO	0.995	$4,430	— (SELL)
Apr 21, 08:13 PM	US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?	BUY YES	0.884	$1,768	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 21, 08:12 PM	US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?	BUY YES	0.910	$1,844	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 21, 08:12 PM	US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	BUY YES	0.950	$1,993	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 21, 08:12 PM	US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?	BUY YES	0.930	$3,991	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 21, 08:11 PM	US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?	BUY YES	0.935	$3,162	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 21, 06:44 PM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.710	$1,775	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 21, 06:28 PM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?	BUY NO	0.960	$2,925	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 21, 04:26 PM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?	BUY NO	0.950	$1,740	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 21, 04:23 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	BUY NO	0.820	$2,050	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 21, 04:22 PM	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?	BUY NO	0.980	$2,450	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 21, 02:52 PM	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?	BUY NO	0.960	$12.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 21, 02:51 PM	Bruins vs. Sabres	BUY	0.600	$4,150	—
Apr 21, 02:51 PM	Canadiens vs. Lightning	BUY	0.630	$3,508	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 21, 01:57 PM	Dota 2: PARIVISION vs South America Rejects (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage	BUY	0.760	$3,395	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 21, 01:46 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April?	BUY NO	0.870	$4,327	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 21, 01:42 PM	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?	BUY NO	0.960	$4,800	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 21, 01:41 PM	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?	BUY NO	0.960	$12.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 21, 12:45 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April?	BUY NO	0.880	$1,752	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 21, 12:42 AM	Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30?	BUY NO	0.920	$1,150	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 20, 09:12 PM	0x45b6509d	BUY	0.590	$1,836	—
Apr 20, 09:12 PM	Atlanta Braves vs. Washington Nationals	BUY	0.600	$4,446	—
Apr 20, 08:45 PM	0xa24bdb5b	BUY	0.432	$2,778	—
Apr 20, 07:36 PM	0x2e1dbfe5	BUY	0.600	$3,557	—
Apr 20, 07:35 PM	0x45b6509d	BUY	0.580	$1,718	—
Apr 20, 07:34 PM	Atlanta Braves vs. Washington Nationals	BUY	0.600	$4,298	—
Apr 20, 11:21 AM	0xe5e75d13	BUY	0.560	$1,118	—
Apr 20, 02:22 AM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?	BUY NO	0.830	$1,038	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 20, 02:16 AM	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?	BUY NO	0.930	$2,325	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 20, 02:10 AM	Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	BUY NO	0.758	$1,462	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 20, 02:09 AM	0x1e688e3b	BUY NO	0.940	$1,889	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 20, 02:07 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April?	BUY NO	0.880	$7,707	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 20, 02:03 AM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?	BUY NO	0.830	$1,660	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 20, 01:59 AM	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?	BUY NO	0.930	$2,790	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 20, 01:49 AM	0xff566fc4	BUY	0.350	$1,716	Killed band — neutral expectation
Apr 20, 01:49 AM	0xfdfbd1d9	BUY	0.410	$1,611	—
Apr 20, 01:26 AM	0xe62fae60	BUY	0.330	$1,293	Killed band — neutral expectation
Apr 20, 01:23 AM	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?	BUY NO	0.930	$4,650	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 19, 09:10 PM	St. Louis Cardinals vs. Houston Astros	BUY	0.820	$5,781	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 19, 09:09 PM	St. Louis Cardinals vs. Houston Astros	BUY	0.910	$1,228	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 19, 09:08 PM	St. Louis Cardinals vs. Houston Astros	BUY	0.910	$2,269	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 19, 09:08 PM	St. Louis Cardinals vs. Houston Astros	BUY	0.899	$1,312	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 19, 09:07 PM	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?	BUY NO	0.930	$1,959	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 19, 09:04 PM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?	BUY NO	0.850	$1,365	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 19, 01:10 PM	San Francisco Giants vs. Washington Nationals	BUY	0.590	$1,367	—
Apr 19, 12:22 PM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?	BUY NO	0.760	$2,058	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 19, 11:30 AM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?	BUY NO	0.830	$1,038	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 19, 11:29 AM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?	BUY NO	0.830	$1,660	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 19, 11:26 AM	San Francisco Giants vs. Washington Nationals	BUY	0.590	$4,516	—
Apr 19, 11:26 AM	0xb9794ba9	BUY	0.630	$1,869	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 19, 11:04 AM	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	BUY YES	0.330	$1,610	Killed band — neutral expectation
Apr 19, 10:58 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April?	BUY NO	0.700	$1,729	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 19, 10:51 AM	0xa664ea5f	BUY	0.710	$3,519	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 19, 02:15 AM	0x304d0d03	BUY	0.540	$1,278	—
Apr 19, 02:14 AM	Texas Rangers vs. Seattle Mariners	BUY	0.998	$1,763	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 19, 02:13 AM	Tampa Bay Rays vs. Pittsburgh Pirates	BUY	0.820	$3,880	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 19, 02:11 AM	0x01cde1a8	BUY NO	0.981	$1,840	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 19, 01:53 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April?	BUY NO	0.720	$4,096	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 19, 01:49 AM	St. Louis Cardinals vs. Houston Astros	BUY	0.997	$1,141	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 19, 01:38 AM	St. Louis Cardinals vs. Houston Astros	BUY	0.932	$1,331	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 19, 01:38 AM	St. Louis Cardinals vs. Houston Astros	BUY	0.946	$1,654	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 19, 01:37 AM	St. Louis Cardinals vs. Houston Astros	BUY	0.942	$2,108	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 19, 01:06 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April?	BUY NO	0.880	$3,371	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 19, 12:24 AM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?	BUY NO	0.810	$16.2K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 18, 09:03 PM	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 18, 2026?	BUY NO	0.982	$1,750	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 18, 09:02 PM	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?	BUY NO	0.870	$3,045	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 18, 06:04 PM	0x4b46ec50	BUY	0.740	$3,757	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 18, 06:04 PM	0x77f905f7	BUY	0.720	$3,570	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 18, 06:04 PM	0x4b46ec50	BUY	0.740	$11.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 18, 03:55 PM	0x93a025dc	BUY	0.610	$1,209	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 18, 03:55 PM	0x4c27acaa	BUY	0.380	$1,946	Killed band — neutral expectation
Apr 18, 02:05 PM	0x4c27acaa	BUY	0.600	$1,186	—
Apr 18, 02:04 PM	0x4c27acaa	BUY	0.600	$2,223	—

Markets active in

106 markets · sorted by volume

Market	Category	Trades	Volume	Net BUY
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	Politics	13	$77.8K	$-16,268
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	Other	6	$76.3K	$-63,351
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?	Politics	9	$46.9K	+$46.9K
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April?	Other	8	$45.3K	$-11,004
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	Politics	4	$34.2K	+$478
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Other	2	$33.2K	+$33.2K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	Tech	2	$31.9K	$-23,995
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?	Other	9	$29.7K	+$29.7K
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	Other	2	$25.5K	$-21,465
Dota 2: 1win vs Power Rangers (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Playoffs	Other	5	$20.1K	+$20.1K
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2	Other	1	$20.0K	+$20.0K
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	Other	1	$20.0K	+$20.0K
Golden Knights vs. Utah	Other	2	$16.4K	+$16.4K
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April?	Other	3	$15.5K	+$15.5K
0x4b46ec50	—	2	$14.8K	+$14.8K
LoL: Gen.G vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2	Other	1	$13.9K	+$13.9K
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Crypto	1	$12.9K	$-12,918
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?	Other	2	$12.8K	+$12.8K
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026?	Other	1	$12.2K	+$12.2K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Tech	1	$10.9K	$-10,913
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?	Other	4	$10.8K	+$10.8K
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Houston Astros	Other	4	$10.6K	+$10.6K
Golden Knights vs. Utah: O/U 6.5	Other	1	$10.6K	+$10.6K
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?	Other	1	$9,990	+$9,990
LoL: Shifters vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - LEC Regular Season	Other	5	$9,766	+$9,766
Atlanta Braves vs. Washington Nationals	Other	2	$8,744	+$8,744
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs	Other	3	$7,745	+$7,745
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Rounds 1-2	Other	2	$7,582	+$7,582
Miami Marlins vs. Los Angeles Dodgers	Other	1	$7,500	+$7,500
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Other	2	$7,428	$-3,452

Showing top 30 by volume.