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rgts
Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0xe84a…b404 with our methodology badges per row.
Resolved trades
11
lifetime
PnL per $
-48%
historical realized
Win rate
44.0%
volume-weighted
Volume resolved
$72.6K
across all resolved markets
Wave-34 gate verdict: ✗ fails
The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. 11 resolved trades · -48% PnL/$. Misses the threshold; cheap-band BUYs would surface as Watch tier only.
Trades (90d)
20
Distinct markets
8
Volume (90d)
$119.4K
avg $5,971 / trade
BUY vs SELL
$74.4K / $45.0K
net direction
Recent trades
last 20 · 90d window| When | Market | Side | Price | Size | Methodology |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 29, 01:42 AM | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL YES | 0.166 | $1,311 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 20, 06:25 PM | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY NO | 0.912 | $12.1K | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 20, 06:23 PM | Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL NO | 0.979 | $12.0K | — (SELL) |
| Apr 10, 08:39 PM | Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL NO | 0.790 | $1,512 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 4, 04:48 AM | Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY NO | 0.972 | $12.0K | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 3, 06:58 PM | US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | BUY NO | 0.820 | $2,009 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 3, 06:56 PM | US forces enter Iran by December 31? | SELL YES | 0.860 | $1,996 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 2, 04:14 AM | Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY NO | 0.800 | $3,000 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 2, 04:12 AM | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.128 | $1,000 | Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Apr 1, 09:49 PM | 0x306d10d4 | SELL NO | 0.998 | $4,342 | — (SELL) |
| Mar 30, 11:46 PM | 0x306d10d4 | BUY NO | 0.955 | $4,155 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 29, 11:52 PM | 0x306d10d4 | BUY YES | 0.122 | $1,000 | Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Mar 29, 08:06 PM | 0x306d10d4 | SELL YES | 0.128 | $4,772 | — (SELL) |
| Mar 29, 07:50 PM | 0x306d10d4 | BUY YES | 0.431 | $16.0K | — |
| Mar 29, 07:48 PM | 0x306d10d4 | SELL NO | 0.750 | $16.0K | — (SELL) |
| Mar 29, 04:23 AM | 0x306d10d4 | BUY NO | 0.936 | $20.0K | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 28, 09:27 PM | US forces enter Iran by December 31? | BUY YES | 0.690 | $1,602 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 28, 09:26 PM | 0x306d10d4 | SELL NO | 0.890 | $1,602 | — (SELL) |
| Mar 27, 06:38 PM | 0x306d10d4 | BUY NO | 0.832 | $1,497 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 23, 04:16 AM | 0x773abaa5 | SELL NO | 0.680 | $1,497 | — (SELL) |
Markets active in
8 markets · sorted by volume| Market | Category | Trades | Volume | Net BUY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x306d10d4 | — | 9 | $69.4K | +$15.9K |
| Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? | Politics | 2 | $24.0K | +$40 |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Other | 1 | $12.1K | +$12.1K |
| Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? | Politics | 2 | $4,512 | +$1,488 |
| US forces enter Iran by December 31? | Other | 2 | $3,598 | $-395 |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Other | 2 | $2,311 | $-311 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | Other | 1 | $2,009 | +$2,009 |
| 0x773abaa5 | — | 1 | $1,497 | $-1,497 |