| Jun 11, 11:05 PM | Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.085 | $8,148 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 11, 10:55 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.757 | $7,397 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 10:54 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.718 | $7,451 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 06:14 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.677 | $12.5K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 06:05 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.685 | $4,863 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 06:00 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.548 | $1,053 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 9, 10:58 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.580 | $1,088 | —— |
| Jun 9, 03:48 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.920 | $13.8K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 7, 09:21 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.998 | $4,990 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 4, 12:02 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.750 | $6,956 | — (SELL) |
| May 31, 10:41 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.890 | $8,900 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 31, 09:35 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.890 | $7,120 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 06:56 AM | Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | SELL NO | 0.947 | $1,894 | — (SELL) |
| May 17, 10:23 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.930 | $1,860 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 17, 10:21 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.630 | $1,890 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 17, 10:20 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.860 | $1,720 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 15, 09:34 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.670 | $2,010 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 14, 10:10 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.630 | $3,150 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 12, 05:24 PM | Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.170 | $1,700 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 12, 12:33 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.690 | $12.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 11, 09:42 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.610 | $7,922 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 11, 09:27 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.810 | $9,083 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 9, 03:22 PM | Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | BUY NO | 0.919 | $4,595 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 8, 09:54 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.930 | $8,386 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 4, 05:46 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.106 | $3,166 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 28, 09:29 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.370 | $3,700 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Apr 28, 02:45 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | BUY NO | 0.810 | $8,372 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 28, 01:26 PM | Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10? | BUY YES | 0.790 | $1,928 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 28, 07:59 AM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.984 | $16.6K | — (SELL) |
| Apr 26, 12:26 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.910 | $2,500 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 25, 05:57 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.898 | $3,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 22, 05:03 PM | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? | SELL YES | 0.999 | $31.9K | — (SELL) |
| Apr 15, 09:18 PM | 0x5c2e6aef | SELL YES | 0.870 | $17.9K | — (SELL) |
| Apr 15, 11:10 AM | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? | BUY YES | 0.850 | $4,250 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 13, 04:46 PM | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? | BUY YES | 0.670 | $1,340 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 12, 01:16 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | SELL YES | 0.140 | $2,800 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 11, 02:29 PM | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? | BUY YES | 0.750 | $1,043 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 9, 03:48 PM | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | BUY NO | 0.464 | $1,514 | —— |
| Apr 9, 03:12 PM | 0x5c2e6aef | BUY YES | 0.635 | $11.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 9, 02:38 PM | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | BUY NO | 0.522 | $1,898 | —— |
| Apr 9, 01:10 PM | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | BUY NO | 0.574 | $2,407 | —— |
| Apr 9, 04:21 AM | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | BUY NO | 0.596 | $4,412 | —— |
| Apr 9, 02:11 AM | Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.730 | $1,033 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 8, 02:02 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | BUY YES | 0.495 | $9,896 | —— |
| Apr 4, 11:49 PM | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | BUY YES | 0.912 | $9,974 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |