XuRi888

Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0xe7bd…ebce with our methodology badges per row.

0xe7bd61ac59883bd4abda5c63865430452ecfebce·Polymarket profile ↗

Resolved trades

203

lifetime

PnL per $

-7%

historical realized

Win rate

90.6%

volume-weighted

Volume resolved

$1.66M

across all resolved markets

Wave-34 gate verdict: ✗ fails

The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. 203 resolved trades · -7% PnL/$. Misses the threshold; cheap-band BUYs would surface as Watch tier only.

Trades (90d)

200

capped at 200

Distinct markets

Volume (90d)

$2.38M

avg $11.9K / trade

BUY vs SELL

$1.93M / $446.1K

net direction

Recent trades

last 200 · 90d window

When	Market	Side	Price	Size	Methodology
Jun 12, 11:20 PM	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?	BUY NO	0.998	$118.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 08:00 PM	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	BUY YES	0.999	$40.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 08:00 PM	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?	BUY NO	0.999	$1,186	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 08:00 PM	Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be between $150 and $200?	BUY YES	0.999	$3,078	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 08:00 PM	Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be between $100 and $150?	BUY NO	0.999	$2,360	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 07:59 PM	Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be between $200 and $250?	BUY NO	0.999	$22.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 07:58 PM	Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be between $200 and $250?	BUY NO	0.998	$1,068	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 07:55 PM	Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by June 30?	BUY YES	0.996	$2,988	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 07:48 PM	Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 300 (High)?	BUY NO	0.999	$36.7K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 05:53 PM	Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by June 30?	BUY YES	0.996	$3,745	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 04:40 PM	Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by June 30?	BUY YES	0.996	$5,353	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 04:25 PM	Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by June 30?	BUY YES	0.997	$5,209	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 04:10 PM	Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by June 30?	BUY YES	0.990	$12.4K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 04:06 PM	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T?	BUY NO	0.998	$9,232	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 04:01 PM	Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be between $200 and $250?	BUY NO	0.999	$4,995	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 02:47 PM	Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be less than $100?	BUY NO	0.999	$3,913	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 02:40 PM	Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 300 (High)?	BUY NO	0.965	$1,402	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 02:14 PM	Will Donald Trump be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?	BUY NO	0.997	$1,437	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 02:11 PM	Will Donald Trump be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?	BUY NO	0.997	$1,739	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 01:31 PM	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T?	BUY NO	0.947	$3,788	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 07:08 AM	Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be at least $250?	BUY NO	0.987	$5,780	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 06:24 AM	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T?	SELL NO	0.920	$5,658	— (SELL)
Jun 12, 05:48 AM	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T?	SELL NO	0.930	$1,214	— (SELL)
Jun 12, 05:47 AM	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T?	SELL NO	0.930	$2,254	— (SELL)
Jun 12, 04:56 AM	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T?	SELL NO	0.930	$3,953	— (SELL)
Jun 12, 03:55 AM	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T?	SELL NO	0.890	$2,419	— (SELL)
Jun 12, 02:58 AM	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.161	$1,610	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 12, 02:19 AM	Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be less than $100?	BUY NO	0.989	$1,276	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 02:19 AM	Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027?	BUY NO	0.999	$1,692	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 04:07 PM	Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1540?	BUY NO	0.999	$20.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 04:06 PM	Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1540?	BUY NO	0.997	$7,785	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 04:14 AM	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026?	BUY NO	0.999	$94.2K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 03:52 AM	Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027?	BUY NO	0.998	$1,198	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 03:51 AM	Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in June 2026 (ET)?	BUY YES	0.998	$3,179	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 03:46 AM	Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 300 (High)?	BUY NO	0.981	$3,618	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 01:02 AM	Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1520?	BUY YES	0.970	$1,758	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 11:45 PM	Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?	SELL YES	0.952	$12.2K	— (SELL)
Jun 10, 11:36 PM	Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?	BUY YES	0.948	$1,875	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 11:28 PM	Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?	SELL YES	0.951	$3,755	— (SELL)
Jun 10, 11:10 PM	Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?	BUY YES	0.960	$2,511	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 10:48 PM	Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?	BUY YES	0.970	$4,175	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 10:46 PM	Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?	BUY YES	0.969	$1,938	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 10:45 PM	Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?	BUY YES	0.968	$1,062	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 10:42 PM	Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?	BUY YES	0.960	$4,837	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 06:11 PM	Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?	BUY YES	0.910	$2,347	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 05:47 PM	Another Trump political opponent federally charged by May 31?	BUY NO	0.926	$4,929	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 04:00 AM	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9?	BUY NO	0.999	$164.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 12:45 AM	Will Paul LePage be the Republican Nominee for ME-02?	BUY YES	0.999	$2,012	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 12:45 AM	Will Scott Wiener receive the most votes in the CA-11 primary?	BUY YES	0.999	$1,339	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 07:30 PM	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T?	BUY NO	0.959	$9,844	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 06:05 PM	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026?	BUY YES	0.999	$33.3K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 05:26 PM	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026?	BUY YES	0.998	$50.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 05:09 PM	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026?	BUY YES	0.999	$4,995	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 05:05 PM	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	BUY YES	0.999	$16.4K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 05:05 PM	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026?	BUY YES	0.999	$5,555	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 05:05 PM	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026?	BUY YES	0.999	$21.2K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 05:04 PM	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 22, 2026?	BUY YES	0.999	$12.1K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 05:02 PM	Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?	BUY YES	0.997	$10.1K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 04:52 PM	Will Claude 5 be released by June 19, 2026?	BUY YES	0.992	$3,729	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 04:17 PM	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T?	BUY NO	0.930	$3,028	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 12:05 AM	Will Spencer Pratt finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	BUY NO	0.998	$2,718	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 12:01 AM	Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	BUY YES	0.998	$1,048	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 12:01 AM	Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	BUY NO	0.999	$149.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 05:19 PM	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 8, 2026?	BUY YES	0.990	$1,880	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 05:15 PM	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 8, 2026?	BUY YES	0.970	$3,942	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 04:41 AM	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	BUY NO	0.999	$16.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 04:41 AM	Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	SELL NO	0.999	$15.1K	— (SELL)
Jun 8, 04:04 AM	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	BUY NO	0.999	$3,330	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 04:02 AM	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	BUY NO	0.999	$144.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 01:36 AM	Will Ukraine win on 2026-06-07?	BUY NO	0.999	$23.2K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 01:34 AM	Will Denmark vs. Ukraine end in a draw?	BUY NO	0.964	$2,170	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 01:03 AM	Will "Kai Harada" win Best Sound Design of a Musical at the 2026 Tony Awards?	SELL NO	0.999	$12.6K	— (SELL)
Jun 8, 12:53 AM	Will "Kai Harada" win Best Sound Design of a Musical at the 2026 Tony Awards?	BUY NO	0.990	$1,072	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 12:43 AM	Will "Kai Harada" win Best Sound Design of a Musical at the 2026 Tony Awards?	BUY NO	0.995	$2,047	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 12:34 AM	Will "Kai Harada" win Best Sound Design of a Musical at the 2026 Tony Awards?	BUY NO	0.999	$7,493	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 08:12 PM	Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?	BUY YES	0.998	$10.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 08:11 PM	Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?	BUY YES	0.998	$9,980	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 07:17 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	BUY NO	0.990	$27.2K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 07:14 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	BUY NO	0.988	$16.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 07:09 PM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	BUY NO	0.997	$2,327	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 07:06 PM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?	SELL NO	0.838	$1,011	— (SELL)
Jun 7, 01:56 PM	Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026?	BUY YES	0.690	$4,462	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 01:37 PM	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026?	BUY YES	0.850	$1,371	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 01:25 PM	Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8?	BUY YES	0.949	$1,741	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 01:21 PM	Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8?	BUY YES	0.939	$1,078	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 03:18 AM	Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	BUY YES	0.999	$4,601	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 03:14 AM	Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	BUY YES	0.998	$3,293	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 03:14 AM	Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	BUY YES	0.999	$13.4K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 03:10 AM	Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	BUY YES	0.995	$1,195	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 02:56 AM	Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	BUY YES	0.994	$1,653	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 02:15 AM	Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	BUY YES	0.996	$1,993	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 02:13 AM	Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	BUY YES	0.989	$3,246	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 02:12 AM	Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	BUY YES	0.988	$2,146	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 02:11 AM	Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	BUY YES	0.991	$1,052	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 6, 02:50 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	BUY NO	0.980	$18.5K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 5, 06:08 PM	GPT-5.6 released by June 5, 2026?	BUY NO	0.999	$4,688	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 5, 03:27 PM	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T?	BUY NO	0.964	$5,802	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 5, 02:13 AM	FDA approves Vepdegestrant?	BUY YES	0.999	$2,947	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 4, 11:50 PM	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T?	BUY NO	0.910	$9,858	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 4, 05:08 AM	Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	BUY NO	0.998	$15.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 4, 04:07 AM	Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election	BUY YES	0.998	$9,203	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 4, 03:24 AM	Will Yoo Jeong-bok win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election?	BUY NO	0.999	$1,197	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 4, 03:15 AM	Will Liam Hernandez advance from the CA-26 primary election?	BUY NO	0.999	$1,074	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 4, 02:48 AM	Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?	SELL YES	0.998	$7,852	— (SELL)
Jun 4, 01:42 AM	Will Trump speak to Yoon Suk Yeol in May?	BUY NO	0.999	$3,294	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 3, 11:48 PM	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.998	$7,214	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 3, 11:28 PM	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T?	BUY NO	0.870	$4,445	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 3, 08:38 PM	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 3, 2026?	BUY YES	0.997	$1,639	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 3, 04:50 PM	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T?	BUY NO	0.840	$1,264	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 3, 04:43 PM	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	SELL NO	0.997	$15.0K	— (SELL)
Jun 3, 07:01 AM	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T?	BUY NO	0.830	$1,098	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 3, 06:58 AM	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T?	BUY NO	0.900	$18.3K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 2, 01:29 AM	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	SELL NO	0.997	$214.8K	— (SELL)
Jun 1, 12:07 AM	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?	SELL YES	0.999	$122.6K	— (SELL)
May 31, 11:02 PM	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	BUY YES	0.900	$2,176	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 09:56 PM	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	BUY YES	0.880	$1,099	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 09:37 PM	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	BUY YES	0.709	$7,878	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 07:05 PM	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	BUY YES	0.740	$3,683	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 07:04 PM	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	BUY YES	0.900	$5,000	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 05:44 PM	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?	BUY YES	0.995	$6,945	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 05:42 PM	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?	BUY YES	0.991	$1,060	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 05:42 PM	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?	BUY YES	0.993	$6,016	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 05:40 PM	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	BUY YES	0.890	$2,809	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 05:18 PM	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	BUY YES	0.880	$1,849	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 30, 06:42 PM	Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw?	BUY YES	0.999	$12.6K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 30, 06:24 PM	Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?	BUY NO	0.999	$11.5K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 30, 06:10 PM	Ousmane Dembele: Anytime Goalscorer	BUY YES	0.999	$1,865	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 30, 04:01 AM	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?	BUY NO	0.999	$7,371	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 11:56 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May?	SELL NO	0.998	$1,099	— (SELL)
May 29, 11:21 PM	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	SELL YES	0.642	$2,172	— (SELL)
May 29, 09:59 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	BUY NO	0.993	$1,192	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 09:03 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?	SELL NO	0.997	$4,037	— (SELL)
May 29, 09:02 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	BUY NO	0.990	$8,799	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 09:02 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	BUY NO	0.990	$4,173	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 09:02 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	SELL NO	0.998	$11.9K	— (SELL)
May 29, 09:01 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?	SELL NO	0.997	$3,193	— (SELL)
May 29, 09:00 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?	SELL NO	0.998	$1,144	— (SELL)
May 29, 09:00 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	BUY NO	0.980	$5,880	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 07:50 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	BUY NO	0.997	$5,238	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 07:49 PM	Canada recession before 2027?	BUY YES	0.990	$4,400	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 07:47 PM	Canada recession before 2027?	BUY YES	0.989	$1,682	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 07:43 PM	Canada recession before 2027?	BUY YES	0.973	$4,440	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 07:07 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	BUY NO	0.996	$3,586	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 07:06 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	BUY NO	0.996	$3,586	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 07:03 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May?	BUY NO	0.994	$1,095	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 07:02 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?	BUY NO	0.996	$3,586	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 07:02 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?	BUY NO	0.995	$1,995	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 07:00 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	BUY NO	0.997	$1,735	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 06:42 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in May?	BUY NO	0.999	$3,167	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 06:41 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	BUY NO	0.996	$1,967	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 06:19 PM	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	BUY YES	0.650	$4,228	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 06:07 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?	BUY NO	0.994	$3,622	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 06:06 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	BUY NO	0.996	$1,312	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 06:02 PM	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 28, 2026?	SELL YES	0.999	$2,216	— (SELL)
May 29, 04:57 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	BUY NO	0.996	$5,378	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 04:56 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	BUY NO	0.995	$2,760	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 04:34 PM	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?	BUY NO	0.999	$10.1K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 04:31 PM	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 28, 2026?	BUY YES	0.987	$1,131	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 03:56 PM	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?	BUY NO	0.999	$30.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 03:34 PM	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	BUY YES	0.711	$3,004	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 03:13 PM	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	BUY YES	0.708	$2,118	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 03:01 PM	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?	BUY NO	0.997	$4,985	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 08:50 AM	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	BUY YES	0.736	$1,549	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 08:43 AM	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	BUY YES	0.910	$1,650	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 08:41 AM	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	BUY YES	0.738	$2,432	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 08:29 AM	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	BUY YES	0.730	$1,129	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 08:25 AM	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	BUY YES	0.718	$1,617	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 08:20 AM	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	BUY YES	0.900	$3,170	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 07:25 AM	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	BUY YES	0.900	$1,863	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 06:52 AM	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 28, 2026?	BUY YES	0.960	$1,080	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 06:49 AM	Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 28, 2026?	BUY YES	0.947	$1,109	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 04:02 AM	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?	BUY NO	0.999	$89.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 01:06 AM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	BUY YES	0.998	$64.6K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 12:54 AM	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?	BUY NO	0.780	$3,027	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 10:26 PM	Aliens.gov confirmed immigration website?	BUY YES	0.999	$4,995	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 10:16 PM	Aliens.gov confirmed immigration website?	BUY YES	0.999	$2,997	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 10:14 PM	Aliens.gov confirmed immigration website?	BUY YES	0.998	$2,994	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 10:07 PM	Aliens.gov confirmed immigration website?	BUY YES	0.999	$15.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 10:04 PM	Aliens.gov confirmed immigration website?	BUY YES	0.990	$6,663	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 09:59 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	BUY NO	0.997	$1,329	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 09:55 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May?	BUY NO	0.998	$7,573	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 09:54 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	BUY NO	0.997	$9,088	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 09:54 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?	BUY NO	0.998	$24.6K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 07:21 PM	Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026?	BUY YES	0.999	$4,011	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 07:01 PM	Will Anthropic have closed its next funding round by December 31, 2026?	BUY YES	0.999	$10.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 07:00 PM	Will Anthropic have closed its next funding round by December 31, 2026?	BUY YES	0.998	$1,996	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 06:15 PM	Anthropic $500B+ valuation in 2026?	BUY YES	0.999	$4,833	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 06:15 PM	Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026?	BUY YES	0.977	$2,722	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 04:53 PM	Claude 4.8 released by May 31?	BUY YES	0.999	$25.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 04:51 PM	Claude 4.8 released by May 31?	BUY YES	0.998	$9,927	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 04:50 PM	Claude 4.8 released by May 31?	BUY YES	0.997	$1,004	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 04:50 PM	Claude 4.8 released by May 31?	BUY YES	0.998	$9,980	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 04:45 PM	Claude 4.8 released by June 15?	BUY YES	0.999	$12.2K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 04:44 PM	Claude 4.8 released by July 31?	BUY YES	0.999	$13.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 04:43 PM	Claude 4.8 released by June 30?	BUY YES	0.999	$13.1K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 04:43 PM	Claude 4.8 released by June 15?	BUY YES	0.998	$1,275	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 04:40 PM	Claude 4.8 released by July 31?	BUY YES	0.988	$8,369	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 01:55 PM	0xb582fa41	BUY YES	0.860	$1,295	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 01:55 PM	Internet Access restored in Iran by September 30, 2026?	BUY YES	0.939	$4,696	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 04:41 AM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $90 by end of June?	BUY YES	0.999	$2,002	Above conviction band — net-negative

Markets active in

98 markets · sorted by volume

Market	Category	Trades	Volume	Net BUY
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Crypto	3	$237.0K	$-222,538
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9?	Other	1	$164.8K	+$164.8K
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	Other	3	$164.2K	+$164.2K
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Politics	1	$149.8K	+$149.8K
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?	Other	4	$136.7K	$-108,623
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?	Finance	1	$118.8K	+$118.8K
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026?	Other	1	$94.2K	+$94.2K
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?	Other	1	$89.9K	+$89.9K
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Other	1	$64.6K	+$64.6K
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026?	Other	1	$50.0K	+$50.0K
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T?	Tech	9	$49.9K	+$23.8K
Claude 4.8 released by May 31?	Other	4	$46.9K	+$46.9K
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?	Politics	3	$45.1K	+$45.1K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	Tech	2	$43.9K	+$43.9K
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 300 (High)?	Tech	3	$41.7K	+$41.7K
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Tech	1	$40.0K	+$40.0K
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?	Politics	9	$34.7K	+$2,795
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026?	Other	1	$33.3K	+$33.3K
Aliens.gov confirmed immigration website?	Other	5	$32.6K	+$32.6K
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Politics	2	$30.1K	$-15
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Crypto	10	$29.8K	+$25.5K
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?	Other	3	$29.7K	+$19.4K
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?	Other	3	$27.9K	+$12.2K
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1540?	Other	2	$27.8K	+$27.8K
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	Other	7	$27.1K	+$27.1K
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by June 30?	Tech	4	$24.5K	+$24.5K
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be between $200 and $250?	Tech	2	$23.9K	+$23.9K
Will "Kai Harada" win Best Sound Design of a Musical at the 2026 Tony Awards?	Tech	4	$23.2K	$-2,016
Will Ukraine win on 2026-06-07?	Tech	1	$23.2K	+$23.2K
Claude 4.8 released by July 31?	Other	2	$21.4K	+$21.4K

Showing top 30 by volume.