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Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0xe542…0a37 with our methodology badges per row.

0xe542afd3881c4c330ba0ebbb603bb470b2ba0a37·Polymarket profile ↗
Resolved trades
44
lifetime
PnL per $
-1%
historical realized
Win rate
60.9%
volume-weighted
Volume resolved
$146.3K
across all resolved markets
Wave-34 gate verdict: ✗ fails

The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. 44 resolved trades · -1% PnL/$. Misses the threshold; cheap-band BUYs would surface as Watch tier only.

Trades (90d)
138
Distinct markets
81
Volume (90d)
$410.1K
avg $2,972 / trade
BUY vs SELL
$160.7K / $249.4K
net direction

Recent trades

last 138 · 90d window
WhenMarketSidePriceSizeMethodology
Jun 20, 10:32 PMWill Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL YES0.057$1,284— (SELL)
Jun 20, 09:59 PMWill Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.060$1,233Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 20, 06:20 PMWill Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL YES0.048$1,186— (SELL)
Jun 20, 05:24 PMWill Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL NO0.882$11.8K— (SELL)
Jun 13, 08:31 AMWill France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.161$4,955Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 12, 06:02 PMWill France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.161$1,652Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 12, 06:02 PMWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL YES0.168$1,982— (SELL)
Jun 12, 06:09 AMWill Paper Rex win Valorant Masters London 2026?SELL NO0.650$4,505— (SELL)
Jun 8, 04:37 PMWill France score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.802$1,920Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 02:42 AMWill England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL YES0.110$1,411— (SELL)
Jun 8, 02:06 AMWill Paper Rex win Valorant Masters London 2026?SELL NO0.620$12.4K— (SELL)
Jun 8, 01:23 AMWill Paper Rex win Valorant Masters London 2026?SELL NO0.630$15.2K— (SELL)
Jun 7, 07:53 PMWill Paper Rex win Valorant Masters London 2026?BUY NO0.610$5,777Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 06:23 PMWill Ukraine win on 2026-06-07?BUY NO0.945$1,669Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 05:54 PMWill Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?BUY YES0.570$1,455
Jun 7, 06:54 AMWill Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?BUY YES0.560$1,480
Jun 5, 09:26 PMWill Lennart Kahl score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.868$1,179Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 4, 08:50 PMWill England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL YES0.550$1,100— (SELL)
Jun 1, 03:44 AMWill Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL YES0.005$1,500— (SELL)
Jun 1, 03:13 AMWill Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL YES0.011$3,300— (SELL)
May 29, 02:12 PMWill Jose Mourinho be appointed as manager of Real Madrid?BUY YES0.952$3,418Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 02:11 PMWill Jose Mourinho be appointed as manager of Real Madrid?BUY YES0.951$1,330Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 06:23 PMWill Ben Shelton win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles?BUY NO0.963$2,550Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 06:22 PMWill Ben Shelton win the 2026 Men's French Open?BUY NO0.957$1,383Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 06:39 PMWill Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open?SELL NO0.970$2,522— (SELL)
May 25, 05:59 PMWill Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open?BUY NO0.982$3,752Above conviction band — net-negative
May 24, 08:48 PMWill Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?BUY YES0.437$1,034
May 23, 02:45 PMWill FC Nantes vs. Toulouse FC end in a draw?BUY YES0.260$1,057Cheap band — no rep
May 23, 12:47 AMNBA: SGA Award ParlaySELL NO0.800$2,116— (SELL)
May 23, 12:46 AMNBA: SGA Award ParlayBUY NO0.555$5,624
May 22, 07:47 PMWill FC Nantes vs. Toulouse FC end in a draw?BUY YES0.369$1,083Killed band — neutral expectation
May 22, 10:31 AMPep Guardiola out as Manchester City manager by the end of 2026?SELL YES0.999$2,136— (SELL)
May 21, 08:25 PMWill CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-07?BUY YES0.690$1,702Above conviction band — net-negative
May 21, 07:34 PMWill Daniil Medvedev win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles?BUY NO0.966$5,230Above conviction band — net-negative
May 20, 07:51 PMWill SC Freiburg qualify for the League Phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League?BUY NO0.889$9,470Above conviction band — net-negative
May 19, 09:43 PMPep Guardiola out as Manchester City manager by the end of 2026?BUY YES0.890$1,012Above conviction band — net-negative
May 19, 08:26 PMWill Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24?SELL NO0.480$2,558— (SELL)
May 19, 08:20 PMWill Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24?BUY NO0.470$1,206
May 19, 05:50 PMWill Southampton FC win on 2026-05-23?BUY NO0.650$1,339Above conviction band — net-negative
May 19, 02:31 AMNBA: SGA Award ParlayBUY NO0.489$3,061
May 16, 12:23 AMWill Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?SELL NO0.961$1,011— (SELL)
May 14, 08:09 PMWill Australia win Eurovision 2026?BUY YES0.145$1,341Killed band — neutral expectation
May 13, 02:37 AMWill Jon Rahm win the 2026 PGA Championship?SELL NO0.940$2,537— (SELL)
May 12, 08:00 PMWill Greece win Eurovision 2026?BUY NO0.853$1,825Above conviction band — net-negative
May 9, 09:02 PMWill England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.111$2,519Killed band — neutral expectation
May 7, 08:40 PMWill Nott'm Forest win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League?SELL NO0.998$1,996— (SELL)
May 7, 08:39 PMWill Nott'm Forest win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League?BUY NO0.955$9,790Above conviction band — net-negative
May 7, 05:29 PMWill the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?SELL YES0.092$1,548— (SELL)
May 5, 01:19 AMWill the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?BUY YES0.094$1,414Killed band — neutral expectation
May 4, 09:24 PMWill Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?BUY NO0.180$1,044Killed band — neutral expectation
May 4, 08:32 PMWill Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?BUY NO0.845$1,147Above conviction band — net-negative
May 3, 09:25 PMWill the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals?SELL YES0.053$1,057— (SELL)
May 3, 06:51 PMWill Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?SELL YES0.393$1,128— (SELL)
May 3, 06:18 PMWill Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?BUY YES0.398$3,259Killed band — neutral expectation
May 3, 05:11 PMWill Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?BUY YES0.364$2,958Killed band — neutral expectation
May 2, 08:17 PMWill Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?BUY YES0.047$1,277
May 2, 12:47 AMWill the Detroit Pistons win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?BUY NO0.972$1,484Above conviction band — net-negative
May 2, 12:43 AMWill the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?BUY YES0.250$1,486Cheap band — no rep
May 2, 12:41 AMWill the Detroit Pistons win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?SELL NO0.972$1,449— (SELL)
May 1, 11:54 PMWill the Detroit Pistons win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?BUY NO0.950$3,819Above conviction band — net-negative
May 1, 07:16 AMWill the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?BUY YES0.043$1,586
May 1, 07:11 AMWill the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?SELL YES0.560$3,943— (SELL)
Apr 29, 07:54 PMWill Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29?SELL NO0.350$13.7K— (SELL)
Apr 29, 07:54 PMWill Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29?SELL NO0.350$7,000— (SELL)
Apr 28, 08:32 PMWill Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?SELL NO0.643$1,361— (SELL)
Apr 28, 08:21 PMWill Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?BUY NO0.684$1,338Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 28, 01:54 PMWill the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship?SELL YES0.100$2,719— (SELL)
Apr 25, 07:56 PMWill Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-25?SELL NO0.810$1,677— (SELL)
Apr 25, 05:29 PMWill Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-25?SELL NO0.190$4,892— (SELL)
Apr 25, 05:28 PMWill Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-25?SELL NO0.190$2,392— (SELL)
Apr 25, 05:27 PMWill Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-25?SELL NO0.190$6,285— (SELL)
Apr 25, 05:27 PMWill Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-25?SELL NO0.200$3,934— (SELL)
Apr 25, 03:21 AMWill the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals?BUY NO0.916$5,122Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 21, 08:03 PMWill FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-04-21?SELL YES0.180$1,800— (SELL)
Apr 21, 08:03 PMWill FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-04-21?SELL YES0.180$1,800— (SELL)
Apr 19, 04:16 AM0x0673f9aaSELL NO0.730$1,198— (SELL)
Apr 18, 08:07 PMWill the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals?SELL YES0.600$1,500— (SELL)
Apr 18, 02:59 AMWill George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?BUY YES0.429$1,786
Apr 17, 05:24 PM0x2f7d2ab5SELL NO0.680$2,403— (SELL)
Apr 17, 12:56 AMWill Porto win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League?SELL NO0.999$9,995— (SELL)
Apr 16, 11:06 PMWill Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.010$1,000
Apr 16, 08:00 PMUFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims)BUY0.400$1,329Killed band — neutral expectation
Apr 16, 07:57 PMUFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims)BUY0.404$1,613
Apr 16, 07:13 PMWill Porto win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League?BUY NO0.972$9,725Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 16, 05:29 PMOpen Capfinances Rouen Metropole: Xinyu Wang vs Sorana CirsteaBUY0.990$1,076Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 16, 05:29 PMOpen Capfinances Rouen Metropole: Xinyu Wang vs Sorana CirsteaBUY0.980$1,569Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 16, 05:15 AMWill Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.010$1,000
Apr 16, 04:42 AM0x596162b3BUY NO0.945$1,887Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 16, 12:59 AM0x92131350SELL0.590$3,913— (SELL)
Apr 15, 06:58 PMWill Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.010$1,000
Apr 15, 03:32 PMBarcelona Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Tomas MachacSELL0.500$1,293— (SELL)
Apr 15, 03:38 AMWill the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series?SELL YES0.290$3,348— (SELL)
Apr 15, 01:03 AM0xab73cf7eSELL YES0.630$1,408— (SELL)
Apr 14, 07:24 PMWill Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?BUY NO0.760$2,057Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 14, 04:52 PMWill Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League?SELL NO0.918$1,805— (SELL)
Apr 14, 03:27 AMWill the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?SELL YES0.221$1,551— (SELL)
Apr 14, 01:09 AMWill the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals?SELL YES0.100$1,204— (SELL)
Apr 13, 07:54 PM0x77b30905SELL NO0.900$1,390— (SELL)
Apr 12, 07:52 PM0x7a00c50eBUY NO0.480$1,836
Apr 12, 07:00 PM0xd80d7fd1SELL NO0.670$1,117— (SELL)
Apr 12, 06:59 PM0xd80d7fd1SELL NO0.670$1,194— (SELL)
Apr 12, 06:58 PM0xd80d7fd1SELL NO0.670$2,459— (SELL)
Apr 12, 06:57 PM0xd80d7fd1SELL NO0.670$3,565— (SELL)
Apr 12, 06:55 PM0xd80d7fd1SELL NO0.680$1,095— (SELL)
Apr 12, 06:33 PM0x4f15df7cSELL NO0.650$1,214— (SELL)
Apr 12, 05:13 PMWill Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League?SELL NO0.931$4,198— (SELL)
Apr 12, 04:32 PM0x618e8e2bSELL NO0.740$1,850— (SELL)
Apr 12, 04:29 PM0x618e8e2bSELL NO0.740$1,110— (SELL)
Apr 12, 04:42 AMWill the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?SELL YES0.400$1,100— (SELL)
Apr 11, 10:06 PM0xb2509dd7SELL NO0.826$4,473— (SELL)
Apr 11, 04:39 AMWill the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series?BUY YES0.270$1,036Cheap band — no rep
Apr 11, 04:39 AMWill the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series?BUY YES0.270$1,350Cheap band — no rep
Apr 11, 03:45 AM0x0d192797SELL0.740$7,400— (SELL)
Apr 11, 03:45 AM0x0d192797SELL0.740$7,400— (SELL)
Apr 10, 12:58 AM0x07b86be2SELL0.370$1,110— (SELL)
Apr 10, 12:57 AM0x07b86be2SELL0.380$6,376— (SELL)
Apr 8, 08:32 PMWill Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League?BUY NO0.920$2,715Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 8, 08:04 PM0x6cfe9791SELL NO0.870$8,700— (SELL)
Apr 8, 08:00 PM0x6cfe9791SELL NO0.870$5,400— (SELL)
Apr 7, 09:01 PMWill the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?BUY YES0.048$1,007
Apr 7, 02:40 PMWill Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?SELL NO0.969$4,843— (SELL)
Apr 7, 01:50 AM0x3ca7c5f7SELL0.770$3,850— (SELL)
Apr 7, 01:36 AMWill Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?BUY NO0.960$2,059Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 7, 01:34 AMWill Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?BUY NO0.960$3,840Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 3, 06:56 PMWill the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?BUY YES0.106$1,322Killed band — neutral expectation
Apr 3, 05:09 AMWill France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL YES0.130$2,864— (SELL)
Apr 3, 02:25 AMWill the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?BUY YES0.380$1,140Killed band — neutral expectation
Apr 2, 04:20 AMWill the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?BUY YES0.380$1,140Killed band — neutral expectation
Apr 1, 06:09 PMWill Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.007$1,898
Apr 1, 06:07 PMWill France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.126$3,182Killed band — neutral expectation
Apr 1, 06:07 AMWill the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship?BUY YES0.090$1,384Killed band — neutral expectation
Mar 28, 03:07 AM0xcdedd446SELL0.750$7,500— (SELL)
Mar 28, 12:57 AM0x682ec1e3SELL0.690$1,380— (SELL)
Mar 27, 08:21 PMWill the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?BUY YES0.370$1,097Killed band — neutral expectation
Mar 27, 07:20 PMWill the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?BUY YES0.370$1,678Killed band — neutral expectation
Mar 26, 09:30 PM0x78e63aacBUY NO0.770$1,935Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 26, 09:14 PM0x5bd45ec7BUY YES0.670$1,021Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 25, 11:13 PM0xcab450bcSELL0.999$11.0K— (SELL)

Markets active in

81 markets · sorted by volume
MarketCategoryTradesVolumeNet BUY
Will Paper Rex win Valorant Masters London 2026?Other4$38.0K$-26,396
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29?Other2$20.6K$-20,650
Will Porto win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League?Other2$19.7K$-270
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-25?Other4$17.5K$-17,503
0x0d1927972$14.8K$-14,800
0x6cfe97912$14.1K$-14,100
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Other4$12.7K+$6,924
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Other1$11.8K$-11,789
Will Nott'm Forest win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League?Other2$11.8K+$7,794
0xcab450bc1$11.0K$-10,996
NBA: SGA Award ParlaySports3$10.8K+$6,569
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?Sports3$10.7K+$1,057
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?Sports6$10.1K+$12
Will SC Freiburg qualify for the League Phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League?Other1$9,470+$9,470
0xd80d7fd15$9,430$-9,430
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League?Other3$8,717$-3,288
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Other4$8,379+$6,123
0xcdedd4461$7,500$-7,500
0x07b86be22$7,486$-7,486
Will the Detroit Pistons win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?Sports3$6,752+$3,853
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Other4$6,300$-300
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open?Other2$6,273+$1,230
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series?Other3$5,734$-962
Will Daniil Medvedev win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles?Other1$5,230+$5,230
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals?Sports1$5,122+$5,122
Will Jose Mourinho be appointed as manager of Real Madrid?Other2$4,748+$4,748
0xb2509dd71$4,473$-4,473
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship?Sports2$4,102$-1,335
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Other2$3,929+$1,108
0x921313501$3,913$-3,913

Showing top 30 by volume.