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FC3988

Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0xdfda…4fe6 with our methodology badges per row.

0xdfda01f4b92cd096c6d04eed6eb2b069fd584fe6·Polymarket profile ↗
Resolved trades
19
lifetime
PnL per $
+13%
historical realized
Win rate
91.1%
volume-weighted
Volume resolved
$90.0K
across all resolved markets
Wave-34 gate verdict: ✓ passes

The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. This wallet clears the bar — its BUYs in 0.20–0.30 trigger our high-conviction tier.

Trades (90d)
32
Distinct markets
16
Volume (90d)
$158.1K
avg $4,941 / trade
BUY vs SELL
$126.1K / $32.1K
net direction

Recent trades

last 32 · 90d window
WhenMarketSidePriceSizeMethodology
Jun 21, 01:38 AMWill Curaçao win on 2026-06-20?BUY NO0.932$4,660Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 13, 06:22 AMWill Australia win on 2026-06-14?BUY NO0.820$1,230Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 10:57 PMWill South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.660$2,438Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 03:53 AMWill Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL NO0.901$26.5K— (SELL)
Jun 9, 03:53 AMWill Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL NO0.901$4,469— (SELL)
Jun 7, 12:56 AMWill Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.880$3,631Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 5, 03:37 PMWill the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?SELL NO0.478$1,114— (SELL)
May 31, 03:57 AMWill Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.880$6,776Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 08:58 AMWill Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.849$8,725Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 01:37 PMWill Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY NO0.470$1,010—
May 24, 05:24 PMWill the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?BUY NO0.768$3,518Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 11:58 PMWill Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-24?BUY NO0.520$10,000—
May 11, 04:18 AMWill the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals?BUY NO0.980$1,083Above conviction band — net-negative
May 11, 02:58 AMWill the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals?BUY NO0.979$2,348Above conviction band — net-negative
May 10, 06:03 PMWill the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals?BUY NO0.987$1,904Above conviction band — net-negative
May 9, 06:34 PMWill Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10?BUY NO0.380$2,508Killed band — neutral expectation
May 5, 12:08 AMWill Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?BUY YES0.200$1,332Conviction tier
May 5, 12:02 AMWill Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?BUY NO0.200$2,960Conviction tier
May 3, 07:08 PMWill Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-03?BUY NO0.960$1,460Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 29, 02:06 AMWill Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?BUY NO0.680$13.1KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Apr 15, 06:57 PMWill Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?BUY NO0.946$1,297Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 15, 04:25 AMWill Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?BUY NO0.951$2,853Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 15, 04:14 AMWill Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?BUY NO0.950$9,499Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 15, 04:11 AMWill Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?BUY NO0.947$2,366Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 14, 05:48 PMWill Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League?BUY NO0.920$1,334Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 13, 01:24 PMWill Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?BUY NO0.949$1,992Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 13, 10:04 AMWill Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League?BUY NO0.925$5,276Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 12, 01:11 PMWill Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League?BUY NO0.932$4,670Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 12, 11:18 AMWill Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League?BUY NO0.931$4,768Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 12, 04:55 AMWill Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League?BUY NO0.930$2,380Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 12, 03:57 AMWill Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League?BUY NO0.924$8,300Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 12, 03:54 AMWill Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League?BUY NO0.919$12.7KAbove conviction band — net-negative

Markets active in

16 markets · sorted by volume
MarketCategoryTradesVolumeNet BUY
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League?Other7$39.4K+$39.4K
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Other2$30.9K$-30,937
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Other3$19.1K+$19.1K
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?Other5$18.0K+$18.0K
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?Other1$13.1K+$13.1K
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-24?Other1$10.0K+$10.0K
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals?Sports3$5,336+$5,336
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20?Other1$4,660+$4,660
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?Sports2$4,632+$2,404
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?Other1$2,960+$2,960
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10?Other1$2,508+$2,508
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Other1$2,438+$2,438
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-03?Other1$1,460+$1,460
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?Other1$1,332+$1,332
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?Other1$1,230+$1,230
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Other1$1,010+$1,010