| Jun 12, 12:10 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.833 | $2,898 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 12, 11:39 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL NO | 0.780 | $2,292 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 12, 01:01 AM | Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | BUY YES | 0.806 | $2,591 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 10, 11:53 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? | BUY NO | 0.994 | $6,220 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 10, 08:48 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? | BUY NO | 0.994 | $13.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 10, 01:26 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? | BUY NO | 0.994 | $1,822 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 10, 12:54 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? | BUY NO | 0.994 | $116.2K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 9, 07:36 PM | Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | BUY YES | 0.623 | $2,063 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 8, 05:59 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? | BUY NO | 0.988 | $2,635 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 8, 03:00 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? | BUY NO | 0.989 | $1,442 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 8, 03:43 AM | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? | BUY NO | 0.986 | $5,243 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 8, 03:40 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? | BUY NO | 0.993 | $4,965 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 6, 03:36 AM | Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | BUY YES | 0.797 | $1,918 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 5, 10:03 PM | Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | BUY YES | 0.525 | $1,575 | —— |
| Jun 5, 09:46 PM | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? | BUY NO | 0.940 | $5,268 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 2, 03:47 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.007 | $3,500 | —— |
| Jun 1, 07:23 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.001 | $1,000 | —— |
| Jun 1, 04:55 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.564 | $2,647 | —— |
| Jun 1, 01:24 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? | BUY NO | 0.960 | $16.8K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 03:58 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY NO | 0.730 | $2,786 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 03:20 AM | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? | BUY NO | 0.910 | $5,274 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 03:18 AM | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? | BUY NO | 0.980 | $1,254 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 31, 03:46 PM | Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | BUY YES | 0.361 | $1,805 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 31, 02:05 PM | Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | BUY YES | 0.361 | $1,805 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 31, 12:22 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? | BUY NO | 0.940 | $23.5K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 31, 11:09 AM | Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.991 | $6,240 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 31, 03:55 AM | Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.990 | $1,297 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 31, 03:50 AM | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? | BUY NO | 0.920 | $1,672 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 30, 11:27 PM | Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | BUY YES | 0.326 | $1,487 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 30, 11:24 PM | Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | SELL YES | 0.257 | $7,639 | — (SELL) |
| May 30, 09:20 PM | Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.989 | $1,576 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 30, 09:19 PM | Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.987 | $1,558 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 30, 09:15 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY NO | 0.690 | $1,521 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 30, 09:10 PM | Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.989 | $1,534 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 30, 09:02 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY NO | 0.680 | $3,472 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 30, 08:55 PM | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? | BUY NO | 0.907 | $14.3K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 30, 06:14 PM | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? | BUY NO | 0.940 | $6,399 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 30, 05:26 PM | Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | BUY YES | 0.318 | $2,637 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 30, 10:58 AM | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? | BUY NO | 0.930 | $2,875 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 29, 09:55 AM | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? | BUY NO | 0.930 | $5,951 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 29, 09:54 AM | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? | BUY NO | 0.860 | $5,103 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 28, 05:21 PM | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? | BUY NO | 0.860 | $2,614 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 27, 05:37 PM | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? | BUY NO | 0.890 | $4,568 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 27, 05:03 AM | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? | BUY NO | 0.930 | $5,512 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 27, 03:40 AM | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? | BUY NO | 0.880 | $14.9K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 26, 04:44 AM | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? | BUY NO | 0.920 | $2,834 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 03:02 PM | Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the Eastern Conference? | SELL YES | 0.640 | $2,232 | — (SELL) |
| May 24, 11:11 PM | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? | BUY NO | 0.929 | $47.8K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 24, 10:52 PM | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? | BUY NO | 0.920 | $4,046 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 24, 10:51 PM | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? | BUY NO | 0.876 | $8,437 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 11:35 PM | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? | BUY NO | 0.867 | $13.1K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 22, 09:17 PM | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? | BUY NO | 0.860 | $7,676 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 22, 07:04 PM | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? | BUY NO | 0.870 | $2,648 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 22, 06:45 PM | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? | BUY NO | 0.940 | $1,006 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 22, 06:45 PM | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? | BUY NO | 0.860 | $3,824 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 22, 06:44 PM | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? | BUY NO | 0.930 | $6,752 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 22, 06:38 PM | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? | BUY NO | 0.950 | $1,052 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 22, 06:38 PM | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? | BUY NO | 0.920 | $3,654 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 22, 06:34 PM | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? | BUY NO | 0.850 | $4,100 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 22, 03:22 PM | 0x086ffc76 | BUY NO | 0.954 | $3,199 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 5, 11:58 PM | Will Gavin McKenna be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft? | BUY YES | 0.910 | $2,725 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 5, 11:51 PM | Will Gavin McKenna be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft? | BUY YES | 0.910 | $1,820 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 20, 06:22 PM | Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? | BUY YES | 0.944 | $5,356 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 11, 02:19 PM | 0x280af8e5 | BUY | 0.630 | $1,246 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 11, 02:17 PM | 0x26258051 | BUY | 0.590 | $1,165 | —— |
| Apr 11, 02:16 PM | 0x1c58e09f | BUY | 0.510 | $1,005 | —— |
| Apr 11, 02:15 PM | 0x84a7e30f | BUY | 0.700 | $1,387 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 11, 02:14 PM | 0x9ed81f0c | BUY | 0.410 | $1,410 | —— |
| Apr 11, 02:13 PM | 0xf8734a88 | BUY | 0.510 | $1,005 | —— |
| Apr 11, 02:12 PM | 0x8a6b6711 | BUY | 0.500 | $2,463 | —— |
| Apr 5, 10:45 PM | Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? | BUY NO | 0.950 | $9,499 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 4, 10:45 PM | Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? | BUY NO | 0.917 | $39.2K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 28, 04:25 PM | 0x02ecb362 | BUY | 0.630 | $1,260 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 28, 04:25 PM | 0x045c8b68 | BUY | 0.570 | $1,140 | —— |
| Mar 28, 04:23 PM | 0x769ef9b3 | BUY | 0.630 | $1,260 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 28, 04:23 PM | 0x1b30bb47 | BUY | 0.570 | $2,850 | —— |
| Mar 23, 09:04 PM | 0x306d10d4 | SELL NO | 0.811 | $19.9K | — (SELL) |