Back to whale feed

third-eye

Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0xdc4f…4652 with our methodology badges per row.

0xdc4f08727c65afc4731b75cf1ed265666b7b4652·Polymarket profile ↗
Resolved trades
12
lifetime
PnL per $
+2%
historical realized
Win rate
98.8%
volume-weighted
Volume resolved
$238.2K
across all resolved markets
Wave-34 gate verdict: ✗ fails

The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. 12 resolved trades · 2% PnL/$. Misses the threshold; cheap-band BUYs would surface as Watch tier only.

Trades (90d)
77
Distinct markets
29
Volume (90d)
$530.4K
avg $6,889 / trade
BUY vs SELL
$498.4K / $32.0K
net direction

Recent trades

last 77 · 90d window
WhenMarketSidePriceSizeMethodology
Jun 12, 12:10 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?BUY NO0.833$2,898Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 11:39 AMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?SELL NO0.780$2,292— (SELL)
Jun 12, 01:01 AMWill the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?BUY YES0.806$2,591Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 11:53 PMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?BUY NO0.994$6,220Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 08:48 PMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?BUY NO0.994$13.0KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 01:26 PMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?BUY NO0.994$1,822Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 12:54 PMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?BUY NO0.994$116.2KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 07:36 PMWill the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?BUY YES0.623$2,063Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 05:59 PMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?BUY NO0.988$2,635Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 03:00 PMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?BUY NO0.989$1,442Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 03:43 AMSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T?BUY NO0.986$5,243Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 03:40 AMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?BUY NO0.993$4,965Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 6, 03:36 AMWill the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?BUY YES0.797$1,918Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 5, 10:03 PMWill the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?BUY YES0.525$1,575
Jun 5, 09:46 PMSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T?BUY NO0.940$5,268Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 2, 03:47 PMMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?BUY YES0.007$3,500
Jun 1, 07:23 PMMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?BUY YES0.001$1,000
Jun 1, 04:55 PMMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?BUY YES0.564$2,647
Jun 1, 01:24 PMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?BUY NO0.960$16.8KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 03:58 AMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?BUY NO0.730$2,786Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 03:20 AMSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T?BUY NO0.910$5,274Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 03:18 AMSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T?BUY NO0.980$1,254Above conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 03:46 PMWill the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?BUY YES0.361$1,805Killed band — neutral expectation
May 31, 02:05 PMWill the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?BUY YES0.361$1,805Killed band — neutral expectation
May 31, 12:22 PMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?BUY NO0.940$23.5KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 11:09 AMWill SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026?BUY YES0.991$6,240Above conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 03:55 AMWill SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026?BUY YES0.990$1,297Above conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 03:50 AMSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T?BUY NO0.920$1,672Above conviction band — net-negative
May 30, 11:27 PMWill the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?BUY YES0.326$1,487Killed band — neutral expectation
May 30, 11:24 PMWill the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?SELL YES0.257$7,639— (SELL)
May 30, 09:20 PMWill SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026?BUY YES0.989$1,576Above conviction band — net-negative
May 30, 09:19 PMWill SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026?BUY YES0.987$1,558Above conviction band — net-negative
May 30, 09:15 PMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?BUY NO0.690$1,521Above conviction band — net-negative
May 30, 09:10 PMWill SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026?BUY YES0.989$1,534Above conviction band — net-negative
May 30, 09:02 PMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?BUY NO0.680$3,472Above conviction band — net-negative
May 30, 08:55 PMSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T?BUY NO0.907$14.3KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 30, 06:14 PMSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T?BUY NO0.940$6,399Above conviction band — net-negative
May 30, 05:26 PMWill the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?BUY YES0.318$2,637Killed band — neutral expectation
May 30, 10:58 AMSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T?BUY NO0.930$2,875Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 09:55 AMSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T?BUY NO0.930$5,951Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 09:54 AMSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T?BUY NO0.860$5,103Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 05:21 PMSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T?BUY NO0.860$2,614Above conviction band — net-negative
May 27, 05:37 PMSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T?BUY NO0.890$4,568Above conviction band — net-negative
May 27, 05:03 AMSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T?BUY NO0.930$5,512Above conviction band — net-negative
May 27, 03:40 AMSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T?BUY NO0.880$14.9KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 04:44 AMSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T?BUY NO0.920$2,834Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 03:02 PMWill the Carolina Hurricanes win the Eastern Conference?SELL YES0.640$2,232— (SELL)
May 24, 11:11 PMSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T?BUY NO0.929$47.8KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 24, 10:52 PMSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T?BUY NO0.920$4,046Above conviction band — net-negative
May 24, 10:51 PMSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T?BUY NO0.876$8,437Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 11:35 PMSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T?BUY NO0.867$13.1KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 09:17 PMSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T?BUY NO0.860$7,676Above conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 07:04 PMSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T?BUY NO0.870$2,648Above conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 06:45 PMSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T?BUY NO0.940$1,006Above conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 06:45 PMSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T?BUY NO0.860$3,824Above conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 06:44 PMSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T?BUY NO0.930$6,752Above conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 06:38 PMSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T?BUY NO0.950$1,052Above conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 06:38 PMSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T?BUY NO0.920$3,654Above conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 06:34 PMSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T?BUY NO0.850$4,100Above conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 03:22 PM0x086ffc76BUY NO0.954$3,199Above conviction band — net-negative
May 5, 11:58 PMWill Gavin McKenna be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft?BUY YES0.910$2,725Above conviction band — net-negative
May 5, 11:51 PMWill Gavin McKenna be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft?BUY YES0.910$1,820Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 20, 06:22 PMWill Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?BUY YES0.944$5,356Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 11, 02:19 PM0x280af8e5BUY0.630$1,246Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 11, 02:17 PM0x26258051BUY0.590$1,165
Apr 11, 02:16 PM0x1c58e09fBUY0.510$1,005
Apr 11, 02:15 PM0x84a7e30fBUY0.700$1,387Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 11, 02:14 PM0x9ed81f0cBUY0.410$1,410
Apr 11, 02:13 PM0xf8734a88BUY0.510$1,005
Apr 11, 02:12 PM0x8a6b6711BUY0.500$2,463
Apr 5, 10:45 PMWill Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?BUY NO0.950$9,499Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 4, 10:45 PMWill Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?BUY NO0.917$39.2KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Mar 28, 04:25 PM0x02ecb362BUY0.630$1,260Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 28, 04:25 PM0x045c8b68BUY0.570$1,140
Mar 28, 04:23 PM0x769ef9b3BUY0.630$1,260Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 28, 04:23 PM0x1b30bb47BUY0.570$2,850
Mar 23, 09:04 PM0x306d10d4SELL NO0.811$19.9K— (SELL)

Markets active in

29 markets · sorted by volume
MarketCategoryTradesVolumeNet BUY
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?Tech9$186.7K+$186.7K
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T?Tech14$93.5K+$93.5K
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T?Tech10$86.8K+$86.8K
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?Sports2$48.7K+$48.7K
0x306d10d41$19.9K$-19,876
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?Sports8$15.9K+$15.9K
Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026?Tech5$12.2K+$12.2K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Tech4$10.1K+$5,487
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?Sports1$7,639$-7,639
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Crypto3$7,147+$7,147
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?Tech1$5,356+$5,356
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T?Tech1$5,243+$5,243
Will Gavin McKenna be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft?Sports2$4,545+$4,545
0x086ffc761$3,199+$3,199
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Other1$2,898+$2,898
0x1b30bb471$2,850+$2,850
0x8a6b67111$2,463+$2,463
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the Eastern Conference?Other1$2,232$-2,232
0x9ed81f0c1$1,410+$1,410
0x84a7e30f1$1,387+$1,387
0x02ecb3621$1,260+$1,260
0x769ef9b31$1,260+$1,260
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T?Tech1$1,254+$1,254
0x280af8e51$1,246+$1,246
0x262580511$1,165+$1,165
0x045c8b681$1,140+$1,140
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T?Tech1$1,052+$1,052
0x1c58e09f1$1,005+$1,005
0xf8734a881$1,005+$1,005