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tkenmn

Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0xd914…0d9a with our methodology badges per row.

0xd914d88676771d525f933306390567cdec100d9a·Polymarket profile ↗
Resolved trades
19
lifetime
PnL per $
-21%
historical realized
Win rate
43.3%
volume-weighted
Volume resolved
$70.1K
across all resolved markets
Wave-34 gate verdict: ✗ fails

The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. 19 resolved trades · -21% PnL/$. Misses the threshold; cheap-band BUYs would surface as Watch tier only.

Trades (90d)
53
Distinct markets
30
Volume (90d)
$223.7K
avg $4,222 / trade
BUY vs SELL
$156.5K / $67.2K
net direction

Recent trades

last 53 · 90d window
WhenMarketSidePriceSizeMethodology
Jun 12, 03:13 AMWill Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.019$1,350
Jun 12, 03:06 AMWill the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?BUY YES0.201$6,016Cheap band — no rep
Jun 4, 02:22 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?BUY NO0.360$11.0KKilled band — neutral expectation
Jun 4, 02:22 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?SELL NO0.600$11.4K— (SELL)
Jun 3, 03:34 AMIran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?BUY NO0.840$2,287Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 3, 03:33 AMIran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?SELL NO0.900$2,287— (SELL)
May 26, 08:31 AMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?BUY NO0.310$2,400Killed band — neutral expectation
May 26, 08:24 AMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?BUY YES0.824$7,296Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 08:24 AMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?BUY YES0.817$5,104Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 06:26 AMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?BUY NO0.502$2,462
May 23, 06:25 AMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?BUY YES0.670$5,000Above conviction band — net-negative
May 18, 05:38 AMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?BUY NO0.670$4,243Above conviction band — net-negative
May 18, 05:38 AMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?SELL NO0.740$4,243— (SELL)
May 18, 05:32 AMWill the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?SELL NO0.410$10.0K— (SELL)
May 16, 03:49 AMIran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?BUY NO0.850$2,160Above conviction band — net-negative
May 16, 03:49 AMIran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?SELL NO0.940$2,160— (SELL)
May 16, 03:47 AMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?BUY NO0.680$3,899Above conviction band — net-negative
May 13, 02:59 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?SELL NO0.870$3,897— (SELL)
May 8, 06:43 AMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?BUY YES0.730$1,009Above conviction band — net-negative
May 8, 06:40 AMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?BUY YES0.730$4,821Above conviction band — net-negative
May 8, 06:39 AMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?SELL YES0.530$4,821— (SELL)
May 8, 06:36 AMWill the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?BUY NO0.903$14.7KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 5, 05:41 AMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?BUY YES0.630$1,840Above conviction band — net-negative
May 5, 05:39 AMWill Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?SELL NO0.790$14.8K— (SELL)
May 3, 06:05 AMIran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?SELL NO0.876$2,335— (SELL)
May 3, 06:05 AMIran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?BUY NO0.920$1,044Above conviction band — net-negative
May 3, 05:55 AMWill Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04?BUY YES0.670$1,005Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 23, 03:42 AMWill the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?BUY NO0.490$12.0K
Apr 20, 06:21 AMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?BUY NO0.840$2,248Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 20, 06:21 AMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?SELL NO0.655$2,234— (SELL)
Apr 20, 06:09 AMIran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?BUY NO0.699$1,733Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 17, 03:30 AMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?BUY NO0.600$2,045
Apr 17, 03:27 AMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?BUY YES0.710$6,459Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 17, 02:42 AMIran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?BUY NO0.360$1,200Killed band — neutral expectation
Apr 17, 02:42 AMIran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?BUY YES0.746$4,000Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 17, 02:07 AMWill the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?BUY YES0.122$1,000Killed band — neutral expectation
Apr 13, 02:39 AMWill Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?BUY NO0.621$8,656Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 13, 02:19 AMWill Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?BUY NO0.600$2,909
Apr 12, 04:07 PMWill the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?SELL YES0.810$1,282— (SELL)
Apr 8, 01:35 AM0x4c5701bcSELL YES0.996$1,494— (SELL)
Apr 7, 03:04 AMWill Bitcoin reach $75,000 in April?BUY NO0.570$4,187
Apr 4, 06:20 AMUS x Iran ceasefire by April 30?BUY NO0.820$3,000Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 4, 06:16 AMUS x Iran ceasefire by December 31?BUY YES0.721$9,005Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 4, 06:07 AMUS x Iran ceasefire by April 30?BUY NO0.820$3,800Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 4, 06:00 AMUS x Iran ceasefire by December 31?BUY YES0.714$10.0KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Apr 2, 10:27 AMWill Bitcoin reach $70,000 in April?BUY NO0.330$1,409Killed band — neutral expectation
Mar 29, 04:54 PMWill the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?BUY YES0.662$1,058Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 28, 06:06 AMWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?SELL YES0.610$2,166— (SELL)
Mar 28, 06:06 AM0x705479ccSELL NO0.896$1,841— (SELL)
Mar 27, 12:13 PM0x58714c07BUY0.710$1,233Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 27, 02:16 AM0x854f2be2SELL0.999$2,179— (SELL)
Mar 26, 04:21 PM0x854f2be2BUY0.550$1,200
Mar 26, 05:30 AM0xebd89832BUY NO0.592$1,800

Markets active in

30 markets · sorted by volume
MarketCategoryTradesVolumeNet BUY
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?Other3$26.4K$-3,269
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?Other6$25.1K+$25.1K
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?Sports2$22.1K+$1,960
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Other4$20.5K$-2,283
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Other4$19.4K+$1,293
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?Other2$19.0K+$19.0K
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?Sports1$14.7K+$14.7K
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?Other1$11.0K+$11.0K
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?Finance4$7,982$-1,262
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?Other2$6,800+$6,800
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?Sports1$6,016+$6,016
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?Other2$4,278$-189
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in April?Crypto1$4,187+$4,187
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?Finance1$4,000+$4,000
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Other1$3,897$-3,897
0x854f2be22$3,378$-979
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?Finance2$3,204$-1,116
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?Other2$2,340$-224
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?Finance1$2,287+$2,287
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?Other1$2,248+$2,248
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Other1$2,166$-2,166
0x705479cc1$1,841$-1,841
0xebd898321$1,800+$1,800
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?Finance1$1,733+$1,733
0x4c5701bc1$1,494$-1,494
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in April?Crypto1$1,409+$1,409
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Other1$1,350+$1,350
0x58714c071$1,233+$1,233
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04?Other1$1,005+$1,005
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?Sports1$1,000+$1,000