stacey5212

Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0xd844…da79 with our methodology badges per row.

0xd8441d7866c35f3e1a9583601728f294ff67da79·Polymarket profile ↗

Resolved trades

lifetime

PnL per $

+32727%

historical realized

Win rate

55.9%

volume-weighted

Volume resolved

$312.1K

across all resolved markets

Wave-34 gate verdict: ✓ passes

The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. This wallet clears the bar — its BUYs in 0.20–0.30 trigger our high-conviction tier.

Trades (90d)

125

Distinct markets

Volume (90d)

$436.4K

avg $3,491 / trade

BUY vs SELL

$209.1K / $227.3K

net direction

Recent trades

last 125 · 90d window

When	Market	Side	Price	Size	Methodology
Jun 13, 03:06 AM	Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	SELL YES	0.999	$1,941	— (SELL)
Jun 13, 03:04 AM	Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	SELL YES	0.999	$1,998	— (SELL)
May 31, 12:20 PM	Will Japan win on 2026-05-31?	BUY YES	0.990	$2,016	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 12:20 PM	Will Japan win on 2026-05-31?	BUY YES	0.985	$2,956	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 12:19 PM	Will Japan win on 2026-05-31?	BUY YES	0.983	$3,734	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 30, 02:18 AM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.950	$1,900	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 10:33 PM	Will Republic of Ireland win on 2026-05-28?	SELL YES	0.999	$1,998	— (SELL)
May 23, 08:46 PM	Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-23?	BUY YES	0.997	$2,519	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 17, 11:10 PM	Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-17?	SELL YES	0.999	$4,055	— (SELL)
May 17, 11:09 PM	Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-05-17?	SELL YES	0.999	$1,012	— (SELL)
May 16, 03:07 PM	Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-05-16?	BUY YES	0.996	$1,992	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 15, 08:55 PM	Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-17?	BUY YES	0.999	$1,998	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 15, 08:55 PM	Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-17?	BUY YES	0.999	$2,997	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 15, 08:54 PM	Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-17?	BUY YES	0.999	$2,997	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 15, 08:54 PM	Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-17?	BUY YES	0.999	$1,998	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 15, 08:48 PM	Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-17?	BUY YES	0.999	$2,567	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 15, 08:47 PM	Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-17?	BUY YES	0.995	$1,989	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 8, 08:13 PM	Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-05-08?	BUY YES	0.993	$1,438	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 8, 08:13 PM	Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-05-08?	BUY YES	0.998	$1,438	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 8, 08:12 PM	Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-05-08?	BUY YES	0.995	$1,990	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 4, 03:57 PM	Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-04?	BUY YES	0.999	$6,427	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 4, 03:56 PM	Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-04?	BUY YES	0.998	$2,662	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 4, 03:51 PM	Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-04?	BUY YES	0.996	$1,826	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 3, 03:15 PM	Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2026-05-03?	BUY YES	0.991	$1,982	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 3, 03:09 PM	Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2026-05-03?	SELL YES	0.999	$1,998	— (SELL)
May 3, 02:49 PM	Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2026-05-03?	BUY YES	0.998	$1,996	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 3, 02:47 PM	Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2026-05-03?	BUY YES	0.990	$2,209	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 3, 01:45 PM	Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-05-03?	BUY YES	0.990	$5,728	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 29, 03:36 AM	Trail Blazers vs. Spurs	BUY YES	0.996	$7,363	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 29, 03:36 AM	Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Milwaukee Brewers	SELL YES	0.999	$6,405	— (SELL)
Apr 29, 03:35 AM	Seattle Mariners vs. Minnesota Twins	SELL YES	0.999	$2,843	— (SELL)
Apr 29, 03:34 AM	Trail Blazers vs. Spurs	BUY YES	0.997	$5,504	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 29, 02:08 AM	Detroit Tigers vs. Atlanta Braves	SELL YES	0.999	$11.8K	— (SELL)
Apr 29, 01:42 AM	St. Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates	SELL YES	0.999	$11.8K	— (SELL)
Apr 29, 01:10 AM	Colorado Rockies vs. Cincinnati Reds	SELL YES	0.999	$2,997	— (SELL)
Apr 29, 01:04 AM	San Francisco Giants vs. Philadelphia Phillies	SELL YES	0.999	$4,390	— (SELL)
Apr 29, 01:03 AM	Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets	BUY YES	0.998	$1,763	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 29, 01:00 AM	San Francisco Giants vs. Philadelphia Phillies	SELL YES	0.999	$1,058	— (SELL)
Apr 29, 12:40 AM	San Francisco Giants vs. Philadelphia Phillies	BUY YES	0.997	$2,333	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 29, 12:38 AM	San Francisco Giants vs. Philadelphia Phillies	BUY YES	0.996	$1,086	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 28, 02:16 AM	Seattle Mariners vs. Minnesota Twins	BUY YES	0.998	$9,478	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 28, 02:15 AM	Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays	SELL YES	0.999	$14.7K	— (SELL)
Apr 28, 01:32 AM	Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays	BUY YES	0.997	$1,505	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 28, 01:22 AM	Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays	BUY YES	0.997	$2,880	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 26, 11:16 PM	San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks	SELL YES	0.999	$14.7K	— (SELL)
Apr 26, 11:03 PM	San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks	BUY YES	0.998	$1,222	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 26, 11:03 PM	San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks	BUY YES	0.997	$1,121	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 26, 11:02 PM	San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks	BUY YES	0.998	$3,115	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 26, 11:02 PM	San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks	BUY YES	0.998	$3,279	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 26, 11:02 PM	Chicago Cubs vs. Los Angeles Dodgers	SELL YES	0.999	$12.9K	— (SELL)
Apr 26, 10:23 PM	New York Yankees vs. Houston Astros	SELL YES	0.999	$7,168	— (SELL)
Apr 26, 10:19 PM	Chicago Cubs vs. Los Angeles Dodgers	BUY YES	0.997	$1,994	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 26, 10:17 PM	Miami Marlins vs. San Francisco Giants	BUY YES	0.991	$1,170	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 26, 08:27 PM	New York Yankees vs. Houston Astros	BUY YES	0.998	$2,522	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 26, 08:25 PM	New York Yankees vs. Houston Astros	BUY YES	0.998	$2,401	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 26, 08:21 PM	New York Yankees vs. Houston Astros	BUY YES	0.997	$2,196	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 26, 07:41 PM	Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves	BUY YES	0.997	$1,495	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 26, 07:39 PM	Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves	BUY YES	0.981	$1,198	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 26, 02:00 AM	Chicago Cubs vs. Los Angeles Dodgers	BUY YES	0.997	$2,026	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 26, 01:58 AM	Detroit Tigers vs. Cincinnati Reds	BUY YES	0.997	$1,393	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 26, 01:57 AM	Los Angeles Angels vs. Kansas City Royals	SELL YES	0.999	$4,492	— (SELL)
Apr 26, 01:32 AM	Detroit Tigers vs. Cincinnati Reds	BUY YES	0.993	$3,091	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 26, 01:20 AM	Washington Nationals vs. Chicago White Sox	SELL YES	0.999	$10.1K	— (SELL)
Apr 26, 01:16 AM	Washington Nationals vs. Chicago White Sox	SELL YES	0.999	$2,997	— (SELL)
Apr 25, 11:04 PM	Miami Marlins vs. San Francisco Giants	SELL YES	0.999	$8,481	— (SELL)
Apr 25, 11:00 PM	Miami Marlins vs. San Francisco Giants	SELL YES	0.999	$2,997	— (SELL)
Apr 25, 10:59 PM	Miami Marlins vs. San Francisco Giants	SELL YES	0.999	$2,997	— (SELL)
Apr 25, 10:55 PM	Miami Marlins vs. San Francisco Giants	BUY YES	0.998	$2,329	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 25, 10:55 PM	Minnesota Twins vs. Tampa Bay Rays	SELL YES	0.999	$2,329	— (SELL)
Apr 25, 10:54 PM	Miami Marlins vs. San Francisco Giants	BUY YES	0.998	$2,395	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 25, 10:54 PM	Minnesota Twins vs. Tampa Bay Rays	SELL YES	0.999	$2,398	— (SELL)
Apr 25, 10:47 PM	Miami Marlins vs. San Francisco Giants	BUY YES	0.990	$9,073	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 25, 10:11 PM	Minnesota Twins vs. Tampa Bay Rays	BUY YES	0.997	$1,401	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 25, 04:50 AM	Miami Marlins vs. San Francisco Giants	BUY YES	0.999	$1,246	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 25, 04:26 AM	Miami Marlins vs. San Francisco Giants	BUY YES	0.993	$1,166	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 25, 03:34 AM	New York Yankees vs. Houston Astros	SELL YES	0.999	$1,505	— (SELL)
Apr 25, 02:24 AM	Los Angeles Angels vs. Kansas City Royals	SELL YES	0.999	$2,997	— (SELL)
Apr 25, 02:22 AM	Los Angeles Angels vs. Kansas City Royals	BUY YES	0.998	$2,993	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 25, 02:19 AM	Athletics vs. Texas Rangers	BUY YES	0.997	$2,414	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 25, 02:11 AM	Athletics vs. Texas Rangers	BUY YES	0.994	$1,038	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 25, 02:10 AM	Athletics vs. Texas Rangers	BUY YES	0.991	$2,717	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 25, 02:01 AM	Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers	SELL YES	0.999	$4,245	— (SELL)
Apr 25, 01:49 AM	Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles	SELL YES	0.999	$2,996	— (SELL)
Apr 25, 01:45 AM	Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers	BUY YES	0.998	$1,650	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 25, 01:41 AM	Minnesota Twins vs. Tampa Bay Rays	SELL YES	0.999	$11.2K	— (SELL)
Apr 25, 01:16 AM	Minnesota Twins vs. Tampa Bay Rays	BUY YES	0.997	$1,781	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 25, 01:15 AM	Minnesota Twins vs. Tampa Bay Rays	BUY YES	0.987	$2,960	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 25, 01:12 AM	Minnesota Twins vs. Tampa Bay Rays	BUY YES	0.992	$2,259	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 25, 12:47 AM	Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles	BUY YES	0.992	$2,877	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 21, 12:58 AM	Cincinnati Reds vs. Tampa Bay Rays	BUY	0.998	$7,997	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 21, 12:57 AM	Houston Astros vs. Cleveland Guardians	SELL	0.999	$7,992	— (SELL)
Apr 21, 12:28 AM	Houston Astros vs. Cleveland Guardians	BUY	0.998	$8,228	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 19, 11:03 PM	Detroit Tigers vs. Boston Red Sox	BUY	0.998	$1,934	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 19, 10:45 PM	Toronto Blue Jays vs. Arizona Diamondbacks	SELL	0.999	$4,951	— (SELL)
Apr 19, 10:37 PM	Kansas City Royals vs. New York Yankees	BUY	0.997	$1,994	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 19, 10:32 PM	Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Colorado Rockies	SELL	0.999	$8,215	— (SELL)
Apr 19, 10:02 PM	Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Colorado Rockies	BUY	0.990	$1,186	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 19, 09:59 PM	Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Colorado Rockies	BUY	0.988	$1,022	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 19, 09:33 PM	Toronto Blue Jays vs. Arizona Diamondbacks	BUY	0.997	$1,495	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 18, 10:44 PM	Milwaukee Brewers vs. Miami Marlins	BUY	0.996	$3,336	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 18, 10:42 PM	Milwaukee Brewers vs. Miami Marlins	BUY	0.987	$2,960	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 18, 04:40 AM	San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Angels	SELL	0.999	$9,148	— (SELL)
Apr 18, 04:37 AM	Chicago White Sox vs. Athletics	SELL	0.999	$4,905	— (SELL)
Apr 18, 04:07 AM	Chicago White Sox vs. Athletics	BUY	0.997	$1,386	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 18, 04:02 AM	St. Louis Cardinals vs. Houston Astros	SELL	0.999	$4,094	— (SELL)
Apr 18, 03:55 AM	St. Louis Cardinals vs. Houston Astros	SELL	0.999	$2,997	— (SELL)
Apr 18, 03:40 AM	Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Colorado Rockies	SELL	0.999	$3,576	— (SELL)
Apr 18, 03:01 AM	Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Colorado Rockies	BUY	0.998	$1,248	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 18, 02:46 AM	San Francisco Giants vs. Washington Nationals	SELL	0.999	$4,394	— (SELL)
Apr 18, 02:41 AM	San Francisco Giants vs. Washington Nationals	SELL	0.999	$3,996	— (SELL)
Apr 18, 01:20 AM	San Francisco Giants vs. Washington Nationals	BUY	0.998	$1,996	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 18, 01:19 AM	San Francisco Giants vs. Washington Nationals	BUY	0.994	$1,722	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 16, 08:41 PM	Los Angeles Angels vs. New York Yankees	BUY	0.999	$2,298	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 16, 08:38 PM	Los Angeles Angels vs. New York Yankees	BUY	0.999	$2,997	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 16, 08:37 PM	Los Angeles Angels vs. New York Yankees	BUY	0.999	$2,997	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 16, 02:05 AM	0x92f925b3	SELL YES	0.995	$1,353	— (SELL)
Apr 16, 12:47 AM	San Francisco Giants vs. Cincinnati Reds	BUY	0.998	$2,043	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 16, 12:47 AM	San Francisco Giants vs. Cincinnati Reds	BUY	0.996	$3,869	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 15, 01:23 AM	Los Angeles Angels vs. New York Yankees	BUY	0.998	$1,553	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 14, 11:18 PM	Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	SELL NO	0.994	$2,301	— (SELL)
Apr 13, 07:18 AM	0x48e9ded2	SELL NO	0.999	$1,082	— (SELL)
Apr 13, 07:17 AM	0x9c5cc21a	SELL NO	0.999	$1,405	— (SELL)
Apr 13, 07:11 AM	Will Alfonso López Chau win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	SELL NO	0.998	$1,681	— (SELL)
Apr 9, 12:35 AM	Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	SELL NO	0.787	$1,574	— (SELL)
Apr 3, 11:51 PM	0xc359bc2c	BUY	0.997	$1,017	Above conviction band — net-negative

Markets active in

64 markets · sorted by volume

Market	Category	Trades	Volume	Net BUY
Miami Marlins vs. San Francisco Giants	Other	6	$28.3K	$-678
San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks	Other	5	$23.4K	$-5,926
Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays	Other	3	$19.1K	$-10,292
Minnesota Twins vs. Tampa Bay Rays	Other	4	$18.2K	$-4,245
Houston Astros vs. Cleveland Guardians	Other	2	$16.2K	+$236
Chicago Cubs vs. Los Angeles Dodgers	Other	2	$14.9K	$-10,944
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-17?	Other	6	$14.5K	+$14.5K
New York Yankees vs. Houston Astros	Other	4	$14.3K	$-48
Washington Nationals vs. Chicago White Sox	Other	2	$13.1K	$-13,132
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs	Tech	2	$12.9K	+$12.9K
San Francisco Giants vs. Washington Nationals	Other	4	$12.1K	$-4,672
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates	Other	1	$11.8K	$-11,841
Detroit Tigers vs. Atlanta Braves	Other	1	$11.8K	$-11,833
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-04?	Other	3	$10.9K	+$10.9K
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Colorado Rockies	Other	3	$10.4K	$-6,007
Seattle Mariners vs. Minnesota Twins	Other	1	$9,478	+$9,478
San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Angels	Other	1	$9,148	$-9,148
San Francisco Giants vs. Philadelphia Phillies	Other	4	$8,867	$-2,029
Will Japan win on 2026-05-31?	Other	3	$8,706	+$8,706
Los Angeles Angels vs. New York Yankees	Other	3	$8,291	+$8,291
Cincinnati Reds vs. Tampa Bay Rays	Other	1	$7,997	+$7,997
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Houston Astros	Other	2	$7,091	$-7,091
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Arizona Diamondbacks	Other	2	$6,446	$-3,455
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Milwaukee Brewers	Other	1	$6,405	$-6,405
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Miami Marlins	Other	2	$6,296	+$6,296
Chicago White Sox vs. Athletics	Other	2	$6,291	$-3,520
Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2026-05-03?	Other	3	$6,203	+$2,207
Athletics vs. Texas Rangers	Other	3	$6,169	+$6,169
Minnesota Twins vs. Tampa Bay Rays	Other	3	$6,127	$-3,326
Los Angeles Angels vs. Kansas City Royals	Other	2	$5,989	$-4

Showing top 30 by volume.