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brokemaxdegen
Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0xd6c9…396d with our methodology badges per row.
Resolved trades
13
lifetime
PnL per $
+61%
historical realized
Win rate
80.6%
volume-weighted
Volume resolved
$146.7K
across all resolved markets
Wave-34 gate verdict: ✓ passes
The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. This wallet clears the bar — its BUYs in 0.20–0.30 trigger our high-conviction tier.
Trades (90d)
40
Distinct markets
25
Volume (90d)
$328.4K
avg $8,210 / trade
BUY vs SELL
$230.7K / $97.7K
net direction
Recent trades
last 40 · 90d window| When | Market | Side | Price | Size | Methodology |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 13, 12:17 AM | Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | BUY YES | 0.470 | $88.7K | — |
| May 25, 09:37 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.110 | $1,102 | Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 25, 08:55 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.150 | $1,949 | Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 23, 08:33 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.650 | $5,106 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 06:27 PM | Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23? | SELL YES | 0.625 | $4,466 | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 05:12 PM | Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23? | BUY YES | 0.700 | $5,005 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 22, 06:46 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.221 | $5,037 | — (SELL) |
| May 22, 05:47 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.039 | $2,156 | — (SELL) |
| May 11, 12:43 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.200 | $2,500 | Conviction tier |
| May 7, 03:19 PM | Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? | BUY YES | 0.560 | $17.4K | — |
| May 6, 06:13 PM | Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? | BUY YES | 0.600 | $5,396 | — |
| May 6, 06:12 PM | Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? | BUY YES | 0.600 | $5,100 | — |
| Apr 28, 10:15 PM | Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL YES | 0.716 | $1,869 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 25, 11:03 AM | Fulham FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5 | BUY YES | 0.560 | $2,809 | — |
| Apr 19, 02:15 AM | 0x13f7be3d | SELL | 0.999 | $13.1K | — (SELL) |
| Apr 19, 01:52 AM | 0x13f7be3d | BUY | 0.577 | $7,558 | — |
| Apr 18, 11:56 PM | 0x0626946f | SELL | 0.999 | $1,229 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 18, 10:57 PM | 0x0626946f | BUY | 0.580 | $4,398 | — |
| Apr 12, 03:47 AM | 0xc7c7369e | SELL NO | 0.999 | $1,249 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 12, 03:47 AM | 0xf8734a88 | SELL | 0.999 | $8,797 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 12, 02:04 AM | 0xf8734a88 | BUY | 0.520 | $4,579 | — |
| Apr 11, 09:55 PM | 0xbca696f9 | BUY | 0.700 | $2,977 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 8, 09:24 PM | 0xbca696f9 | BUY | 0.700 | $20.8K | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 7, 11:59 PM | US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | SELL YES | 0.993 | $2,613 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 7, 11:59 PM | 0x4c5701bc | SELL YES | 0.988 | $11.3K | — (SELL) |
| Apr 7, 10:41 PM | 0x4c5701bc | SELL YES | 0.470 | $2,561 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 7, 10:04 PM | 0x4c5701bc | BUY YES | 0.405 | $2,206 | — |
| Apr 4, 11:42 PM | 0xcd6d9b62 | SELL | 0.999 | $2,298 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 4, 10:44 PM | 0x86c37c11 | SELL | 0.999 | $10.4K | — (SELL) |
| Apr 4, 11:33 AM | 0x0c896fc5 | BUY YES | 0.560 | $4,032 | — |
| Mar 31, 06:09 PM | 0xae6976b8 | BUY YES | 0.610 | $2,200 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 31, 06:07 PM | 0xae6976b8 | BUY YES | 0.610 | $5,300 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 29, 02:23 AM | 0x1b30bb47 | BUY | 0.562 | $7,000 | — |
| Mar 29, 02:23 AM | 0x76b6b900 | SELL | 0.999 | $16.1K | — (SELL) |
| Mar 29, 12:36 AM | 0x76b6b900 | BUY | 0.740 | $11.3K | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 28, 11:59 PM | 0x746506f3 | BUY | 0.690 | $11.5K | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 28, 11:43 PM | 0x38fd6a3f | SELL | 0.999 | $11.2K | — (SELL) |
| Mar 28, 10:26 PM | 0x789abc32 | SELL | 0.490 | $3,233 | — (SELL) |
| Mar 28, 09:17 PM | 0x789abc32 | BUY | 0.379 | $2,499 | Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Mar 25, 11:00 AM | 0x38fd6a3f | BUY | 0.832 | $9,343 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
Markets active in
25 markets · sorted by volume| Market | Category | Trades | Volume | Net BUY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | Other | 1 | $88.7K | +$88.7K |
| 0x76b6b900 | — | 2 | $27.4K | $-4,895 |
| 0xbca696f9 | — | 2 | $23.8K | +$23.8K |
| 0x13f7be3d | — | 2 | $20.7K | $-5,536 |
| 0x38fd6a3f | — | 2 | $20.6K | $-1,878 |
| Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? | Other | 1 | $17.4K | +$17.4K |
| 0x4c5701bc | — | 3 | $16.1K | $-11,680 |
| 0xf8734a88 | — | 2 | $13.4K | $-4,218 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | Other | 3 | $12.6K | +$2,569 |
| 0x746506f3 | — | 1 | $11.5K | +$11.5K |
| Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? | Other | 2 | $10.5K | +$10.5K |
| 0x86c37c11 | — | 1 | $10.4K | $-10,389 |
| Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23? | Other | 2 | $9,471 | +$539 |
| 0xae6976b8 | — | 2 | $7,500 | +$7,500 |
| 0x1b30bb47 | — | 1 | $7,000 | +$7,000 |
| 0x789abc32 | — | 2 | $5,733 | $-734 |
| 0x0626946f | — | 2 | $5,627 | +$3,168 |
| 0x0c896fc5 | — | 1 | $4,032 | +$4,032 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | Other | 2 | $3,051 | +$3,051 |
| Fulham FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5 | Other | 1 | $2,809 | +$2,809 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | Other | 1 | $2,613 | $-2,613 |
| 0xcd6d9b62 | — | 1 | $2,298 | $-2,298 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? | Other | 1 | $2,156 | $-2,156 |
| Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Other | 1 | $1,869 | $-1,869 |
| 0xc7c7369e | — | 1 | $1,249 | $-1,249 |