| Jun 20, 07:55 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL NO | 0.930 | $2,000 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 12, 01:06 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | BUY NO | 0.579 | $1,158 | —— |
| Jun 12, 01:03 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY NO | 0.820 | $2,376 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 12, 12:21 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | BUY NO | 0.570 | $1,143 | —— |
| Jun 12, 12:16 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY NO | 0.800 | $2,774 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 12, 11:26 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | BUY NO | 0.568 | $1,874 | —— |
| Jun 12, 10:42 AM | Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? | BUY YES | 0.743 | $2,374 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 12, 10:25 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.834 | $10.2K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 12, 09:57 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.850 | $10.4K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 06:15 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.673 | $2,019 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 04:22 PM | Starmer out by June 30, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.830 | $1,729 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 04:11 PM | Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? | BUY YES | 0.840 | $1,008 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 6, 11:55 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.730 | $2,919 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 5, 07:54 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.890 | $10.2K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 11:45 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.720 | $3,600 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 31, 11:16 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.890 | $1,780 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 29, 05:30 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.864 | $1,059 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 26, 05:59 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.560 | $1,514 | —— |
| May 26, 12:25 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY NO | 0.560 | $1,848 | —— |
| May 25, 11:19 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | BUY NO | 0.339 | $1,355 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 25, 11:15 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | BUY NO | 0.320 | $1,600 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 25, 11:12 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | SELL NO | 0.967 | $9,189 | — (SELL) |
| May 24, 09:39 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY NO | 0.510 | $4,455 | —— |
| May 24, 09:27 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | SELL NO | 0.966 | $9,177 | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 09:54 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.360 | $1,800 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 20, 10:53 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.810 | $1,620 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 20, 10:51 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.814 | $4,072 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 19, 10:08 PM | Starmer out by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.710 | $1,479 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 17, 06:57 PM | Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31? | BUY YES | 0.880 | $1,735 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 17, 09:44 AM | Starmer out by June 30, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.650 | $1,300 | — (SELL) |
| May 16, 08:13 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | BUY NO | 0.570 | $7,761 | —— |
| May 16, 08:12 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.900 | $2,700 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 16, 07:42 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY NO | 0.720 | $3,600 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 16, 07:13 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.900 | $1,260 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 15, 06:11 AM | Starmer out by June 30, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.233 | $1,282 | — (SELL) |
| May 12, 12:46 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.830 | $1,223 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 12, 12:08 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | SELL NO | 0.991 | $8,429 | — (SELL) |
| May 12, 12:06 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | SELL NO | 0.992 | $9,142 | — (SELL) |
| May 12, 12:05 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | SELL NO | 0.992 | $6,096 | — (SELL) |
| May 2, 09:49 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.920 | $2,300 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 1, 07:20 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.910 | $2,002 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 28, 09:17 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | BUY NO | 0.650 | $1,950 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 27, 07:18 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | BUY NO | 0.790 | $1,580 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 26, 06:43 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | BUY NO | 0.650 | $1,242 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 25, 09:21 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | BUY NO | 0.840 | $1,008 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 25, 05:34 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | BUY NO | 0.670 | $2,345 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 25, 05:31 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | BUY NO | 0.670 | $2,010 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 25, 05:19 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | BUY NO | 0.870 | $1,044 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 25, 06:38 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | BUY NO | 0.630 | $1,701 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 25, 06:37 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | BUY NO | 0.850 | $2,295 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 25, 06:28 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | BUY NO | 0.850 | $2,040 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 25, 06:27 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | BUY NO | 0.850 | $1,700 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 25, 06:15 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | BUY NO | 0.850 | $1,020 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 25, 06:06 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.910 | $2,002 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 25, 05:39 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.910 | $1,001 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 25, 05:04 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.910 | $1,001 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 23, 10:31 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | SELL NO | 0.966 | $12.4K | — (SELL) |
| Apr 23, 10:31 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | SELL NO | 0.971 | $15.2K | — (SELL) |
| Apr 18, 08:17 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | BUY NO | 0.580 | $1,160 | —— |
| Apr 17, 09:01 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | BUY NO | 0.660 | $1,056 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 11, 07:48 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | BUY NO | 0.665 | $1,396 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 11, 11:50 AM | 0x30a5bc97 | BUY YES | 0.323 | $1,340 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Apr 11, 10:13 AM | 0x19966af6 | BUY NO | 0.759 | $1,290 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 9, 11:22 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | BUY NO | 0.760 | $1,420 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 9, 12:54 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | BUY NO | 0.760 | $1,976 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 9, 11:48 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | BUY NO | 0.740 | $3,151 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 5, 12:07 PM | 0xb9fe907d | BUY YES | 0.810 | $2,133 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 5, 11:42 AM | 0xb9fe907d | BUY YES | 0.790 | $2,583 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 30, 11:04 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | BUY NO | 0.810 | $1,053 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 26, 02:33 PM | 0x4befb52f | BUY NO | 0.880 | $1,343 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 24, 02:46 PM | 0x7c67b6d6 | BUY NO | 0.954 | $2,100 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |