| Jun 13, 02:01 PM | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.910 | $4,550 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 13, 01:58 PM | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.910 | $4,550 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 13, 01:51 PM | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.910 | $4,550 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 13, 01:40 PM | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.910 | $2,348 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 10, 01:20 AM | Xi Jinping out before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.920 | $2,801 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 8, 04:34 PM | Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | SELL YES | 0.776 | $1,349 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 8, 04:25 PM | Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | SELL YES | 0.777 | $2,866 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 7, 02:52 AM | Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? | SELL NO | 0.850 | $2,125 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 3, 08:51 PM | Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | BUY YES | 0.520 | $1,053 | —— |
| Jun 3, 07:32 PM | Xi Jinping out before 2027? | SELL NO | 0.930 | $4,650 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 3, 02:01 PM | Xi Jinping out before 2027? | SELL NO | 0.930 | $3,942 | — (SELL) |
| May 24, 07:09 PM | Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 by December 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.910 | $1,069 | — (SELL) |
| May 24, 02:18 PM | Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.973 | $2,043 | — (SELL) |
| May 21, 02:33 PM | Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.644 | $1,939 | — (SELL) |
| May 20, 11:35 PM | Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | SELL NO | 0.601 | $1,257 | — (SELL) |
| May 19, 02:26 PM | Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? | BUY NO | 0.860 | $3,440 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 19, 01:04 PM | Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL NO | 0.637 | $6,610 | — (SELL) |
| May 19, 02:33 AM | Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY YES | 0.246 | $1,230 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 19, 02:01 AM | Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | SELL NO | 0.619 | $2,167 | — (SELL) |
| May 19, 01:37 AM | Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? | BUY NO | 0.470 | $1,568 | —— |
| May 19, 01:30 AM | Xi Jinping out before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.936 | $1,591 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 19, 01:26 AM | Will Hyperliquid dip to $8 by December 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.940 | $2,966 | — (SELL) |
| May 19, 01:02 AM | Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? | BUY NO | 0.850 | $2,125 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 19, 12:57 AM | Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? | BUY NO | 0.840 | $2,160 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 19, 12:51 AM | Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL NO | 0.637 | $6,370 | — (SELL) |
| May 19, 12:49 AM | Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.930 | $2,062 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 18, 11:11 PM | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.910 | $7,162 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 18, 11:10 PM | Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL NO | 0.639 | $2,556 | — (SELL) |
| May 18, 11:09 PM | Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL NO | 0.639 | $4,473 | — (SELL) |
| May 18, 11:07 PM | Xi Jinping out before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.936 | $4,680 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 18, 11:06 PM | Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | SELL NO | 0.932 | $4,347 | — (SELL) |
| May 18, 11:01 PM | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.910 | $4,550 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 18, 11:00 PM | Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | SELL NO | 0.933 | $4,663 | — (SELL) |
| May 18, 02:14 PM | Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.975 | $1,463 | — (SELL) |
| May 18, 02:17 AM | Xi Jinping out before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.933 | $4,500 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 18, 02:17 AM | Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | SELL NO | 0.934 | $3,738 | — (SELL) |
| May 18, 02:16 AM | Xi Jinping out before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.931 | $9,310 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 18, 02:14 AM | Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? | SELL NO | 0.761 | $7,606 | — (SELL) |
| May 17, 05:08 AM | Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | SELL NO | 0.935 | $1,222 | — (SELL) |
| May 17, 04:51 AM | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.920 | $4,600 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 17, 04:51 AM | Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | SELL NO | 0.935 | $4,677 | — (SELL) |
| May 17, 04:46 AM | Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | SELL NO | 0.900 | $1,759 | — (SELL) |
| May 17, 04:44 AM | Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? | BUY NO | 0.820 | $1,492 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 16, 03:35 PM | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.910 | $40.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 16, 03:30 PM | Trump out as President before 2027? | SELL NO | 0.900 | $31.5K | — (SELL) |
| May 16, 03:25 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.595 | $5,949 | — (SELL) |
| May 16, 02:32 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.248 | $1,295 | — (SELL) |
| May 15, 08:23 PM | Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY YES | 0.362 | $1,198 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 15, 12:14 PM | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.910 | $2,275 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 15, 02:26 AM | Trump out as President before 2027? | SELL NO | 0.890 | $3,560 | — (SELL) |
| May 13, 09:14 PM | Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY YES | 0.254 | $2,540 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 11, 12:48 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL YES | 0.376 | $2,919 | — (SELL) |
| May 11, 12:48 PM | Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? | BUY NO | 0.880 | $3,080 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 11, 02:38 AM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.750 | $1,125 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 11, 02:35 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | SELL NO | 0.999 | $1,499 | — (SELL) |
| May 11, 02:34 AM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.346 | $1,250 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 11, 02:31 AM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.626 | $2,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 11, 02:30 AM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.313 | $2,000 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 9, 01:57 PM | Trump out as President before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.880 | $5,568 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 3, 11:42 PM | Trump out as President before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.870 | $5,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 3, 11:28 PM | Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY YES | 0.212 | $1,901 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 3, 11:14 PM | Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY YES | 0.390 | $1,114 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 2, 11:57 PM | Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY YES | 0.389 | $1,085 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 2, 11:31 PM | Trump out as President before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.870 | $2,500 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 2, 11:30 PM | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | SELL YES | 0.290 | $2,900 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 29, 11:46 AM | Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | BUY YES | 0.033 | $2,000 | —— |
| Apr 22, 04:43 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | BUY NO | 0.900 | $3,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 22, 03:29 AM | Rockets vs. Lakers | BUY YES | 0.580 | $2,172 | —— |
| Apr 19, 12:55 PM | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | SELL NO | 0.780 | $6,540 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 19, 12:55 PM | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | SELL NO | 0.780 | $6,540 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 17, 07:29 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | SELL YES | 0.364 | $1,205 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 17, 05:56 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | SELL YES | 0.450 | $2,250 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 17, 12:48 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | BUY YES | 0.390 | $5,000 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Apr 17, 12:47 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | BUY YES | 0.350 | $5,000 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Apr 12, 11:38 PM | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | SELL YES | 0.260 | $2,574 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 12, 07:57 PM | Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | BUY NO | 0.689 | $1,482 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 12, 07:56 PM | Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | BUY NO | 0.689 | $1,800 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 11, 10:38 PM | Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.114 | $1,140 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Apr 11, 10:37 PM | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.154 | $1,540 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Apr 11, 10:37 PM | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.156 | $1,560 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Apr 11, 08:32 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | SELL NO | 0.642 | $2,249 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 8, 11:00 PM | Trump out as President before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.840 | $2,878 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 7, 11:44 PM | Trump out as President before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.850 | $2,500 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 6, 01:17 PM | 0xfee70407 | BUY YES | 0.740 | $21.1K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 4, 10:25 PM | 0x51c5e5e7 | BUY YES | 0.209 | $2,000 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Apr 4, 10:25 PM | 0x51c5e5e7 | BUY YES | 0.209 | $2,000 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |