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Kaiserklein-h

Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0xc658…64ac with our methodology badges per row.

0xc65896a343dbe0e668cc32ea3ce6bb6bcf3764ac·Polymarket profile ↗
Resolved trades
35
lifetime
PnL per $
-33%
historical realized
Win rate
55.9%
volume-weighted
Volume resolved
$144.8K
across all resolved markets
Wave-34 gate verdict: ✗ fails

The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. 35 resolved trades · -33% PnL/$. Misses the threshold; cheap-band BUYs would surface as Watch tier only.

Trades (90d)
38
Distinct markets
13
Volume (90d)
$169.7K
avg $4,466 / trade
BUY vs SELL
$96.9K / $72.8K
net direction

Recent trades

last 38 · 90d window
WhenMarketSidePriceSizeMethodology
Jun 13, 11:12 AMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?SELL NO0.993$2,747— (SELL)
Jun 13, 06:44 AMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?BUY NO0.900$1,695Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 13, 04:41 AMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?BUY NO0.880$1,056Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 13, 04:41 AMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?BUY NO0.880$2,959Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 13, 04:15 AMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?BUY NO0.870$4,675Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 13, 04:13 AMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?BUY NO0.870$3,216Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 13, 04:03 AMTrump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15?SELL NO0.963$1,787— (SELL)
Jun 13, 03:47 AMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?SELL NO0.997$12.7K— (SELL)
Jun 12, 04:35 AMTrump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15?SELL NO0.926$2,416— (SELL)
Jun 12, 01:28 AMTrump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15?SELL NO0.930$3,134— (SELL)
Jun 12, 12:46 AMTrump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15?SELL NO0.930$4,155— (SELL)
Jun 11, 05:41 PMTrump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12?SELL NO0.947$5,861— (SELL)
Jun 11, 12:57 PMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?SELL NO0.931$5,467— (SELL)
Jun 10, 03:28 PMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?BUY NO0.870$1,576Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 01:16 PMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?BUY NO0.880$1,809Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 12:03 PMWill Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?BUY NO0.940$4,288Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 12:03 PMWill Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?BUY NO0.930$2,621Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 10:53 AMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?SELL YES0.287$12.1K— (SELL)
Jun 10, 12:43 AMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?BUY YES0.315$5,725Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 10, 12:43 AMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?BUY YES0.296$7,075Cheap band — no rep
Jun 9, 03:25 AMTrump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15?BUY NO0.910$5,813Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 4, 09:48 AMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?BUY NO0.960$1,122Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 4, 04:19 AMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?BUY NO0.954$3,977Above conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 04:01 AMWill Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?BUY NO0.960$20.2KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 11:41 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?SELL NO0.309$15.4K— (SELL)
May 22, 10:25 AMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?BUY NO0.962$3,963Above conviction band — net-negative
May 21, 05:49 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?BUY NO0.930$1,395Above conviction band — net-negative
May 21, 05:49 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?BUY NO0.935$3,737Above conviction band — net-negative
May 21, 05:47 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?BUY NO0.934$1,027Above conviction band — net-negative
May 21, 05:46 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?BUY NO0.930$1,916Above conviction band — net-negative
May 21, 05:46 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?BUY NO0.934$1,487Above conviction band — net-negative
May 21, 04:52 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?BUY NO0.800$2,174Above conviction band — net-negative
May 21, 04:47 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?BUY NO0.945$4,024Above conviction band — net-negative
May 21, 04:41 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?SELL NO0.577$7,096— (SELL)
May 21, 04:06 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?BUY NO0.941$3,623Above conviction band — net-negative
May 21, 04:06 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?BUY NO0.940$1,864Above conviction band — net-negative
May 21, 04:05 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?BUY NO0.945$1,890Above conviction band — net-negative
May 21, 04:04 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?BUY NO0.945$1,977Above conviction band — net-negative

Markets active in

13 markets · sorted by volume
MarketCategoryTradesVolumeNet BUY
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?Other11$26.9K+$26.9K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Tech3$24.9K+$713
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?Other3$20.9K$-20,873
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?Politics1$20.2K+$20.2K
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15?Politics5$17.3K$-5,680
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?Other1$15.4K$-15,403
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?Other5$13.6K+$13.6K
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Other1$7,096$-7,096
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?Politics2$6,910+$6,910
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12?Politics1$5,861$-5,861
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?Other2$5,099+$5,099
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?Other2$3,385+$3,385
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Other1$2,174+$2,174