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rdba

Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0xc4d1…8ce8 with our methodology badges per row.

0xc4d1a863e9cc45d02ba22d3a1ae9ba7822018ce8·Polymarket profile ↗
Resolved trades
15
lifetime
PnL per $
-5%
historical realized
Win rate
91.3%
volume-weighted
Volume resolved
$459.2K
across all resolved markets
Wave-34 gate verdict: ✗ fails

The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. 15 resolved trades · -5% PnL/$. Misses the threshold; cheap-band BUYs would surface as Watch tier only.

Trades (90d)
22
Distinct markets
18
Volume (90d)
$1.57M
avg $71.2K / trade
BUY vs SELL
$1.56M / $3,433
net direction

Recent trades

last 22 · 90d window
WhenMarketSidePriceSizeMethodology
Jun 8, 05:36 PMWill Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?BUY NO0.975$48.2KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 5, 10:26 PMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 6?BUY NO0.985$7,408Above conviction band — net-negative
May 18, 12:07 PMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?BUY NO0.470$9,589
May 18, 12:03 PMWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?BUY NO0.978$39.7KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 18, 07:24 AMStarmer out by May 31, 2026?BUY NO0.756$3,535Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 8, 07:49 AM0x4c5701bcBUY YES0.996$160.2KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Apr 8, 01:31 AM0x4c5701bcBUY YES0.996$210.5KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Apr 8, 12:03 AM0x4c5701bcBUY YES0.990$116.6KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Apr 3, 09:19 AMWill Poland win Eurovision 2026?SELL YES0.003$1,144— (SELL)
Apr 3, 09:19 AMWill Portugal win Eurovision 2026?SELL YES0.003$1,110— (SELL)
Apr 3, 09:18 AMWill Albania win Eurovision 2026?SELL YES0.004$1,180— (SELL)
Apr 3, 09:11 AMWill Estonia win Eurovision 2026?BUY NO0.996$368.4KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Apr 3, 09:08 AMWill Greece win Eurovision 2026?BUY YES0.071$1,741Killed band — neutral expectation
Apr 2, 05:12 AMWill Denmark win Eurovision 2026?BUY NO0.892$1,051Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 2, 05:12 AMWill Sweden win Eurovision 2026?BUY NO0.967$7,916Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 30, 07:05 AM0x7cb525e8BUY NO0.998$141.6KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Mar 30, 07:04 AMWill France win Eurovision 2026?BUY NO0.871$4,192Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 30, 07:04 AMWill Denmark win Eurovision 2026?BUY NO0.899$5,694Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 30, 07:03 AM0x61ce3773BUY NO0.996$390.8KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Mar 27, 07:35 AMUS forces enter Iran by April 30?BUY NO0.380$38.4KKilled band — neutral expectation
Mar 25, 05:58 AMWill Finland win Eurovision 2026?BUY NO0.615$1,934Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 25, 05:58 AMWill Denmark win Eurovision 2026?BUY NO0.877$5,962Above conviction band — net-negative

Markets active in

18 markets · sorted by volume
MarketCategoryTradesVolumeNet BUY
0x4c5701bc3$487.3K+$487.3K
0x61ce37731$390.8K+$390.8K
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026?Other1$368.4K+$368.4K
0x7cb525e81$141.6K+$141.6K
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?Politics1$48.2K+$48.2K
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?Other1$39.7K+$39.7K
US forces enter Iran by April 30?Other1$38.4K+$38.4K
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026?Other3$12.7K+$12.7K
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?Other1$9,589+$9,589
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026?Other1$7,916+$7,916
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 6?Crypto1$7,408+$7,408
Will France win Eurovision 2026?Other1$4,192+$4,192
Starmer out by May 31, 2026?Other1$3,535+$3,535
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?Other1$1,934+$1,934
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026?Other1$1,741+$1,741
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026?Other1$1,180$-1,180
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026?Other1$1,144$-1,144
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026?Other1$1,110$-1,110