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makinta

Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0xc15b…38af with our methodology badges per row.

0xc15b833b6991e5dbcaca029f7d0f951e5db238af·Polymarket profile ↗
Resolved trades
29
lifetime
PnL per $
-15%
historical realized
Win rate
80.0%
volume-weighted
Volume resolved
$673.7K
across all resolved markets
Wave-34 gate verdict: ✗ fails

The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. 29 resolved trades · -15% PnL/$. Misses the threshold; cheap-band BUYs would surface as Watch tier only.

Trades (90d)
35
Distinct markets
18
Volume (90d)
$861.6K
avg $24.6K / trade
BUY vs SELL
$616.1K / $245.5K
net direction

Recent trades

last 35 · 90d window
WhenMarketSidePriceSizeMethodology
Jun 12, 07:05 PMIsrael x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?BUY NO0.887$2,986Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 3, 04:04 AMIsrael x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?BUY NO0.950$48.1KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 3, 04:04 AMIsrael x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?BUY NO0.936$14.8KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 27, 10:40 PMIsrael x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?BUY NO0.962$7,991Above conviction band — net-negative
May 27, 10:40 PMIsrael x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?BUY NO0.960$9,716Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 07:17 PMIsrael x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?BUY NO0.938$4,127Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 07:17 PMIsrael x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?BUY NO0.930$5,638Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 06:16 PMIsrael x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?BUY NO0.943$1,934Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 05:36 PMIsrael x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?BUY NO0.939$16.7KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 05:08 AMWill the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?SELL YES0.997$2,849— (SELL)
May 24, 07:14 AMWill the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?SELL YES0.998$58.2K— (SELL)
May 23, 01:55 PMWill the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?BUY YES0.930$5,952Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 01:38 PMWill the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?BUY YES0.910$46.2KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 01:31 PMWill the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?SELL YES0.996$117.7K— (SELL)
May 19, 06:46 AMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?BUY NO0.870$5,220Above conviction band — net-negative
May 19, 06:46 AMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?BUY NO0.870$80.0KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 19, 03:38 AMIran closes its airspace by May 18?SELL NO0.999$15.4K— (SELL)
May 18, 10:52 AMIran closes its airspace by May 18?BUY NO0.979$24.3KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 17, 09:41 AMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?BUY NO0.910$107.2KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 15, 08:05 PMIran closes its airspace by May 15?BUY NO0.990$7,037Above conviction band — net-negative
May 15, 10:40 AMIran closes its airspace by May 15?BUY NO0.979$22.5KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 15, 10:17 AMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?SELL NO0.998$49.9K— (SELL)
May 13, 06:25 AMWill Greece win Eurovision 2026?BUY YES0.131$2,005Killed band — neutral expectation
May 12, 06:04 PMWill Finland win Eurovision 2026?BUY YES0.403$4,869—
May 12, 03:08 PMIran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?SELL YES0.050$1,500— (SELL)
May 12, 03:06 AMWill Finland win Eurovision 2026?BUY YES0.401$4,076—
May 9, 07:34 PMUS obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?BUY NO0.950$14.9KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 1, 04:02 AMTrump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?BUY NO0.982$1,037Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 30, 05:17 AMTrump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?BUY NO0.995$19.6KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Apr 29, 04:21 PMTrump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?BUY NO0.988$48.2KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Apr 29, 03:32 PMTrump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?BUY NO0.981$24.0KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Apr 27, 06:48 PMIran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?BUY NO0.989$7,198Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 25, 06:12 AM0x9dd27666BUY NO0.999$1,422Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 24, 01:21 PMTrump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 24th?BUY NO0.996$43.5KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Apr 22, 07:14 AMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?BUY NO0.995$34.7KAbove conviction band — net-negative

Markets active in

18 markets · sorted by volume
MarketCategoryTradesVolumeNet BUY
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Other3$192.5K+$192.5K
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?Other1$117.7K$-117,694
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?Other3$110.4K$-5,976
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?Politics4$92.8K+$92.8K
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Other3$65.9K+$65.9K
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Other1$49.9K$-49,900
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Other6$46.1K+$46.1K
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 24th?Politics1$43.5K+$43.5K
Iran closes its airspace by May 18?Tech2$39.7K+$8,892
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?Other1$34.7K+$34.7K
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?Tech2$29.6K+$29.6K
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?Tech1$14.9K+$14.9K
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?Other2$8,946+$8,946
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?Finance1$7,198+$7,198
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?Other1$2,849$-2,849
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026?Other1$2,005+$2,005
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?Finance1$1,500$-1,500
0x9dd27666—1$1,422+$1,422