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simpleman

Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0xbe89…b88c with our methodology badges per row.

0xbe89905ca9a689f5129621b62fcf715b5a45b88c·Polymarket profile ↗
Resolved trades
20
lifetime
PnL per $
-9%
historical realized
Win rate
89.3%
volume-weighted
Volume resolved
$179.2K
across all resolved markets
Wave-34 gate verdict: ✗ fails

The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. 20 resolved trades · -9% PnL/$. Misses the threshold; cheap-band BUYs would surface as Watch tier only.

Trades (90d)
39
Distinct markets
18
Volume (90d)
$458.0K
avg $11.7K / trade
BUY vs SELL
$329.3K / $128.7K
net direction

Recent trades

last 39 · 90d window
WhenMarketSidePriceSizeMethodology
Jun 9, 07:21 PMWill Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?BUY NO0.900$5,000Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 5, 01:02 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.930$1,984Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 5, 12:55 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.987$25.0KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 3, 02:24 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.983$8,716Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 3, 02:24 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.982$5,360Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 3, 02:24 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.982$10.4KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 03:16 PMWill Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?SELL YES0.968$5,125— (SELL)
May 31, 06:07 AMWill Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?SELL YES0.949$5,022— (SELL)
May 24, 04:32 AMEx-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30?BUY NO0.839$2,500Above conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 01:42 PMJerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30?BUY NO0.992$1,786Above conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 01:34 PMEx-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by May 31?BUY NO0.951$2,500Above conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 01:34 PMEx-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30?SELL NO0.841$1,418— (SELL)
May 21, 01:34 PMEx-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30?BUY NO0.890$3,000Above conviction band — net-negative
May 14, 01:49 PMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?SELL NO0.900$2,586— (SELL)
May 11, 12:07 AMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?SELL NO0.850$2,443— (SELL)
May 10, 11:06 PMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?BUY NO0.870$5,000Above conviction band — net-negative
May 8, 06:23 PMWill Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?BUY YES0.985$7,880Above conviction band — net-negative
May 8, 12:33 PMWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?BUY NO0.992$4,960Above conviction band — net-negative
May 8, 12:30 PMWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?BUY NO0.992$5,000Above conviction band — net-negative
May 5, 01:28 PMWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?BUY NO0.991$6,000Above conviction band — net-negative
May 4, 06:54 PMJerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30?SELL NO0.967$1,142— (SELL)
Apr 30, 08:24 PMWill Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?BUY NO0.994$10,000Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 30, 12:07 PMWill the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?SELL YES0.840$13.9K— (SELL)
Apr 30, 01:54 AMWill Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?BUY NO0.995$60.0KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Apr 30, 01:53 AMWill Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?BUY YES0.990$1,348Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 30, 01:41 AMWill the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?BUY YES0.850$2,550Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 30, 01:41 AMWill the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?BUY YES0.850$15.0KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Apr 30, 01:19 AMWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?BUY NO0.986$2,705Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 28, 08:56 PMKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?SELL NO0.890$4,045— (SELL)
Apr 26, 07:38 PMKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?BUY NO0.880$4,000Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 25, 05:59 AMUS military draft authorized in 2026?BUY NO0.898$2,400Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 16, 10:04 PMUS military draft authorized in 2026?BUY NO0.900$1,380Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 16, 04:27 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.991$15.5KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Apr 15, 11:37 AMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.989$32.0KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Apr 10, 12:38 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.982$25.0KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Apr 8, 11:35 PMWill the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?SELL NO0.800$1,998— (SELL)
Apr 8, 06:28 PMFed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.640$1,500Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 29, 05:52 PM0x7cb525e8SELL NO0.995$91.0K— (SELL)
Mar 29, 05:21 PM0x7cb525e8BUY NO0.996$60.8KAbove conviction band — net-negative

Markets active in

18 markets · sorted by volume
MarketCategoryTradesVolumeNet BUY
0x7cb525e8—2$151.8K$-30,244
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?Finance3$72.5K+$72.5K
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?Tech2$70.0K+$70.0K
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?Finance4$49.5K+$49.5K
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics3$31.5K+$3,639
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?Finance4$18.7K+$18.7K
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?Politics3$18.0K$-2,267
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Tech3$10.0K$-29
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?Other2$8,045$-45
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30?Other3$6,918+$4,082
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?Other1$5,000+$5,000
US military draft authorized in 2026?Other2$3,780+$3,780
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30?Finance2$2,928+$643
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by May 31?Other1$2,500+$2,500
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?Other1$1,998$-1,998
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Finance1$1,984+$1,984
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?Finance1$1,500+$1,500
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?Tech1$1,348+$1,348