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bernarmadov

Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0xb454…9b90 with our methodology badges per row.

0xb4545b686967d17b93467c4a76dfa616292c9b90·Polymarket profile ↗
Resolved trades
25
lifetime
PnL per $
-15%
historical realized
Win rate
79.7%
volume-weighted
Volume resolved
$99.5K
across all resolved markets
Wave-34 gate verdict: ✗ fails

The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. 25 resolved trades · -15% PnL/$. Misses the threshold; cheap-band BUYs would surface as Watch tier only.

Trades (90d)
32
Distinct markets
17
Volume (90d)
$138.7K
avg $4,333 / trade
BUY vs SELL
$121.4K / $17.3K
net direction

Recent trades

last 32 · 90d window
WhenMarketSidePriceSizeMethodology
Jun 12, 07:13 PMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?BUY NO0.949$11.0KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 04:39 PMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?BUY NO0.896$5,300Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 01:49 PMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?BUY NO0.957$10.7KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 11:06 AMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?BUY NO0.954$10.0KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 09:45 PMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?BUY NO0.908$5,000Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 09:23 PMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?BUY NO0.925$5,200Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 09:47 AMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9?BUY NO0.987$10.2KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 01:21 PMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?BUY NO0.993$10,000Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 5, 08:58 AMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5?BUY NO0.988$5,000Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 3, 02:25 PMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?BUY NO0.987$5,000Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 06:33 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?SELL NO0.930$4,797— (SELL)
Jun 1, 05:41 PMIsrael announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?BUY NO0.678$3,998Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 01:32 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?BUY NO0.950$4,900Above conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 11:32 PMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?BUY NO0.992$8,903Above conviction band — net-negative
May 30, 09:11 PMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30?BUY NO0.990$8,810Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 08:16 PMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?BUY NO0.734$4,137Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 07:09 AMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?BUY NO0.850$3,347Above conviction band — net-negative
May 27, 07:32 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?SELL NO0.850$3,060— (SELL)
May 27, 04:28 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?BUY NO0.820$2,132Above conviction band — net-negative
May 27, 04:19 PMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?SELL NO0.960$2,132— (SELL)
May 27, 02:32 PMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?BUY NO0.930$1,200Above conviction band — net-negative
May 27, 02:32 PMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?SELL NO0.986$1,185— (SELL)
May 20, 02:26 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?BUY NO0.837$1,051Above conviction band — net-negative
May 20, 02:26 PMUS military draft authorized in 2026?SELL NO0.914$1,046— (SELL)
May 10, 11:00 PMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?BUY NO0.870$1,500Above conviction band — net-negative
May 10, 10:59 PMKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?SELL NO0.953$1,574— (SELL)
May 9, 11:43 AMWill the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?BUY NO0.830$1,500Above conviction band — net-negative
May 6, 09:13 AMKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?BUY NO0.940$1,300Above conviction band — net-negative
May 5, 06:06 PMWill 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?SELL NO0.982$1,185— (SELL)
Apr 27, 09:00 AMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?SELL NO0.690$1,160— (SELL)
Apr 26, 06:06 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?BUY NO0.680$1,143Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 26, 06:05 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?SELL NO0.974$1,142— (SELL)

Markets active in

17 markets · sorted by volume
MarketCategoryTradesVolumeNet BUY
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?Other6$47.2K+$47.2K
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?Other3$16.4K+$16.4K
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9?Other1$10.2K+$10.2K
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?Other1$10.0K+$10.0K
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?Other2$9,697+$103
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30?Other1$8,810+$8,810
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Other5$8,546+$106
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5?Other1$5,000+$5,000
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?Other1$5,000+$5,000
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?Other1$3,998+$3,998
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?Other2$3,332$-932
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?Other2$2,874$-274
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Tech2$2,685+$315
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?Other1$1,500+$1,500
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?Tech1$1,185$-1,185
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?Other1$1,142$-1,142
US military draft authorized in 2026?Other1$1,046$-1,046