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TheMafiaa

Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0xafd4…7e61 with our methodology badges per row.

0xafd492974cd531aae7786210438ae46b42047e61·Polymarket profile ↗
Resolved trades
32
lifetime
PnL per $
+21833%
historical realized
Win rate
76.0%
volume-weighted
Volume resolved
$162.0K
across all resolved markets
Wave-34 gate verdict: ✓ passes

The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. This wallet clears the bar — its BUYs in 0.20–0.30 trigger our high-conviction tier.

Trades (90d)
200
capped at 200
Distinct markets
135
Volume (90d)
$1.01M
avg $5,063 / trade
BUY vs SELL
$701.1K / $311.6K
net direction

Recent trades

last 200 · 90d window
WhenMarketSidePriceSizeMethodology
Jun 20, 09:59 PMWill Germany win on 2026-06-20?BUY YES0.990$19.8KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 20, 09:43 PMWill Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw?BUY YES0.560$2,270
Jun 3, 10:54 PMMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?BUY NO0.997$99.7KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 19, 08:25 PMWill Manchester City finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League?BUY YES0.999$6,954Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 29, 03:57 PMLoL: G2 Esports vs Fnatic - Game 2 WinnerBUY YES0.333$1,253Killed band — neutral expectation
Apr 29, 09:19 AMLoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs JD Gaming - Game 1 WinnerBUY YES0.640$1,294Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 28, 06:10 PMLoL: Team Vitality vs Solary - Game 2 WinnerBUY YES0.850$1,654Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 28, 05:55 PMLoL: Fnatic vs Shifters (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier PlayoffsBUY YES0.998$10.4KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Apr 28, 05:52 PMLoL: Fnatic vs Shifters (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier PlayoffsBUY YES0.994$2,519Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 28, 05:45 PMLoL: Fnatic vs Shifters (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier PlayoffsBUY YES0.880$3,385Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 28, 05:01 PMLoL: Fnatic vs Shifters - Game 2 WinnerBUY YES0.984$1,935Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 28, 04:54 PMLoL: Fnatic vs Shifters - Game 2 WinnerBUY YES0.982$11.5KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Apr 28, 04:42 PMLoL: Fnatic vs Shifters - Game 2 WinnerBUY YES0.491$1,956
Apr 28, 04:42 PMLoL: Fnatic vs Shifters - Game 2 WinnerBUY YES0.411$2,784
Apr 28, 04:41 PMLoL: Fnatic vs Shifters - Game 2 WinnerBUY YES0.940$1,324Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 26, 10:02 PMSpread: Celtics (-7.5)BUY YES0.510$2,241
Apr 26, 07:32 PMLoL: Karmine Corp vs Fnatic - Game 2 WinnerBUY YES0.360$1,800Killed band — neutral expectation
Apr 26, 01:15 PMDota 2: BetBoom Team vs Aurora - Game 2 WinnerBUY YES0.590$2,841
Apr 26, 11:46 AMDota 2: BetBoom Team vs Aurora - Game 1 WinnerBUY YES0.540$3,240
Apr 26, 11:29 AMLoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 WinnerBUY YES0.310$1,550Killed band — neutral expectation
Apr 26, 09:39 AMLoL: Ultra Prime vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 WinnerBUY YES0.580$2,460
Apr 26, 08:52 AMLoL: T1 vs BNK FEARX - Game 2 WinnerBUY YES0.350$1,859Killed band — neutral expectation
Apr 26, 08:35 AMDota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons - Game 1 WinnerBUY YES0.480$4,800
Apr 26, 08:14 AMLoL: T1 vs BNK FEARX - Game 1 WinnerBUY YES0.780$4,716Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 26, 08:11 AMLoL: T1 vs BNK FEARX - Game 1 WinnerBUY YES0.650$3,813Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 25, 11:07 PMValorant: NRG vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 WinnerBUY YES0.590$1,358
Apr 25, 11:00 PMLoL: Cloud9 vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 2 WinnerBUY YES0.780$1,151Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 25, 11:00 PMLoL: Cloud9 vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 2 WinnerBUY YES0.770$2,146Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 25, 10:44 PMLoL: Cloud9 vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 1 WinnerBUY YES0.998$2,750Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 25, 10:53 AMDota 2: Team Liquid vs South America Rejects - Game 2 WinnerBUY YES0.390$1,511Killed band — neutral expectation
Apr 25, 08:37 AMLoL: Top Esports vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 2 WinnerBUY YES0.531$1,063
Apr 23, 10:40 AMLoL: HANJIN BRION vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 WinnerSELL YES0.999$20.7K— (SELL)
Apr 23, 10:02 AMLoL: HANJIN BRION vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 WinnerSELL YES0.999$14.7K— (SELL)
Apr 23, 09:04 AMLoL: HANJIN BRION vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 WinnerBUY YES0.790$14.8KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Apr 23, 08:23 AMDota 2: PARIVISION vs South America Rejects - Game 2 WinnerBUY YES0.670$10.0KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Apr 22, 09:05 AMLoL: KT Rolster vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 2 WinnerBUY YES0.840$16.8KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Apr 21, 08:15 AMDota 2: Team Liquid vs Heroic - Game 2 WinnerBUY0.630$1,732Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 20, 12:02 PM0x8cec031bBUY0.460$3,246
Apr 20, 12:00 PM0x607272c3BUY0.800$1,220Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 20, 11:54 AM0x607272c3BUY0.500$4,109
Apr 20, 11:34 AM0x607272c3BUY0.710$9,414Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 20, 09:56 AM0xf79a95bdBUY0.740$2,193Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 20, 09:08 AM0x85fde7bdBUY0.700$3,596Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 19, 05:26 PM0x277793e9BUY0.700$1,822Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 19, 12:15 PM0x17b7d99fSELL0.999$14.3K— (SELL)
Apr 19, 10:23 AM0x727c5ab6BUY0.560$1,243
Apr 19, 09:27 AM0x7db5275cBUY0.630$3,541Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 19, 09:18 AM0x448a54c1BUY0.510$4,205
Apr 19, 09:12 AM0xdd17542fBUY0.580$5,800
Apr 19, 08:21 AM0xd8bef83aBUY0.510$2,550
Apr 19, 08:20 AM0xd8bef83aBUY0.520$1,218
Apr 18, 11:37 PM0x16538d6dBUY0.650$1,988Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 18, 01:23 PM0xfd0951feBUY0.700$2,838Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 18, 01:22 PM0xfd0951feBUY0.700$1,035Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 18, 09:15 AM0x2c684d64BUY0.300$2,400Conviction tier
Apr 18, 08:07 AM0x839b0615BUY0.690$2,401Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 17, 01:42 PM0x3bacada1BUY0.400$4,000Killed band — neutral expectation
Apr 17, 01:42 PM0x06b9ca38BUY0.270$2,700Conviction tier
Apr 17, 01:41 PM0x3bacada1BUY0.400$4,000Killed band — neutral expectation
Apr 17, 01:01 PMLoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs JD Gaming - Game 2 WinnerBUY0.690$6,836Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 17, 12:12 PM0x2e8fbf99BUY0.670$3,980Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 17, 12:10 PM0x5151d6a9SELL0.999$21.4K— (SELL)
Apr 17, 12:08 PM0x9c7095d2BUY0.480$3,351
Apr 17, 11:08 AM0xef3d9fe5SELL0.999$19.6K— (SELL)
Apr 17, 10:59 AM0xdf11796bSELL0.999$1,998— (SELL)
Apr 17, 10:19 AM0x5151d6a9BUY0.460$3,602
Apr 17, 10:19 AM0xdbb47f47SELL0.999$30.8K— (SELL)
Apr 17, 10:18 AM0x5151d6a9BUY0.460$4,525
Apr 17, 10:08 AM0xef3d9fe5BUY0.440$8,652
Apr 17, 08:56 AM0xdbb47f47BUY0.600$5,928
Apr 17, 08:56 AM0xdbb47f47BUY0.600$5,928
Apr 16, 09:03 PM0x422bdb64BUY0.890$2,570Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 16, 08:31 PM0x83be2c8bBUY0.998$6,847Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 16, 11:46 AM0x4b66862cBUY0.500$1,621
Apr 16, 11:35 AM0x4b66862cBUY0.700$1,387Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 16, 11:33 AM0xe28a4ea4SELL0.999$16.9K— (SELL)
Apr 16, 11:28 AM0x0b9116e3SELL0.999$13.7K— (SELL)
Apr 16, 11:11 AM0x1200ea52BUY0.630$1,246Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 16, 11:09 AM0x22cfc3d3BUY0.560$1,680
Apr 16, 10:21 AM0xe28a4ea4BUY0.730$1,095Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 16, 10:20 AM0xe28a4ea4BUY0.730$7,300Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 16, 09:01 AM0xd4dff589BUY0.830$4,150Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 16, 09:01 AM0xd4dff589BUY0.830$8,300Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 16, 04:43 AM0x6263524aBUY0.940$9,400Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 16, 04:42 AM0x6263524aBUY0.920$9,179Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 16, 04:41 AM0x6263524aBUY0.750$3,725Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 15, 09:19 PM0x9d3b65ebBUY0.924$1,607Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 15, 09:11 PM0x9d3b65ebBUY0.797$1,255Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 15, 08:54 PM0x9d3b65ebBUY0.710$1,045Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 15, 08:36 PM0x74ab2fbaBUY0.484$2,115
Apr 15, 08:35 PM0x11d68477BUY0.530$2,057
Apr 15, 08:01 PM0xb5ab07ddBUY0.440$3,621
Apr 15, 07:58 PM0xb5ab07ddBUY0.470$1,880
Apr 15, 07:04 PM0xb46e9f95BUY0.490$1,925
Apr 15, 06:24 PM0x4f341371BUY0.500$1,250
Apr 15, 06:05 PM0x11d68477BUY0.530$5,300
Apr 15, 01:13 PM0x3ec95adbBUY0.546$4,643
Apr 15, 12:13 PM0x968720d0SELL0.999$6,689— (SELL)
Apr 15, 11:05 AM0x8cb9c229BUY0.410$4,100
Apr 15, 10:11 AM0x3bb858a7BUY0.468$7,018
Apr 15, 08:05 AM0xb173a550BUY0.560$3,863
Apr 14, 10:16 PM0x5c0515f7BUY0.599$1,071
Apr 14, 09:55 PM0x5c0515f7BUY0.520$2,080
Apr 14, 09:54 PM0x5c0515f7BUY0.510$1,530
Apr 14, 07:08 PM0x6505572aBUY0.470$2,350
Apr 14, 11:40 AM0x52b6e6b5BUY0.640$12.8KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Apr 14, 10:49 AM0xffc1dcfcBUY0.450$2,804
Apr 14, 10:06 AM0xf855f557BUY0.680$7,068Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 14, 10:04 AM0xf855f557BUY0.669$5,185Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 13, 06:46 PM0x10a2ce9cBUY0.905$1,026Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 13, 05:27 PM0xf5396591SELL0.999$13.4K— (SELL)
Apr 13, 05:26 PM0xf22f5baaBUY0.750$3,740Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 13, 12:58 PM0xaec7eae4BUY0.460$1,380
Apr 13, 12:44 PM0xaec7eae4BUY0.460$4,778
Apr 13, 10:58 AM0xc1e48adcBUY0.320$1,549Killed band — neutral expectation
Apr 13, 09:45 AM0xbf15d7d9BUY0.999$1,573Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 13, 09:13 AM0xbf15d7d9BUY0.680$1,449Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 13, 12:15 AM0x07c00dcdBUY0.609$2,437Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 13, 12:14 AM0x07c00dcdBUY0.590$1,742
Apr 13, 12:14 AM0x07c00dcdBUY0.590$1,877
Apr 13, 12:13 AM0x07c00dcdBUY0.638$3,389Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 13, 12:13 AM0x07c00dcdBUY0.585$1,508
Apr 13, 12:13 AM0x07c00dcdBUY0.578$3,810
Apr 13, 12:13 AM0x00370e36SELL0.999$12.1K— (SELL)
Apr 13, 12:12 AM0x07c00dcdBUY0.510$3,570
Apr 13, 12:06 AM0xbe453164BUY0.510$3,356
Apr 12, 09:25 PM0x00370e36BUY0.680$1,967Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 12, 09:23 PM0x00370e36BUY0.670$1,542Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 12, 09:17 PM0x00370e36BUY0.640$1,920Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 12, 11:35 AM0x19c80dd4SELL0.999$10.5K— (SELL)
Apr 12, 09:13 AM0xe00abf3dBUY0.590$5,895
Apr 11, 11:42 PM0x72a93cb3BUY0.750$1,016Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 11, 12:09 PM0x26d6f04aBUY0.390$2,480Killed band — neutral expectation
Apr 11, 11:30 AM0xbd6083a6BUY0.410$2,644
Apr 10, 10:22 PM0x9a5d7c17BUY0.999$26.8KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Apr 10, 09:59 PM0xa960cfdeBUY0.518$1,343
Apr 10, 07:29 PM0x4ad3bb05BUY0.720$1,255Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 10, 09:13 AM0x673557b3BUY0.600$1,200
Apr 10, 09:01 AM0x1fd22e54BUY0.730$2,190Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 10, 09:01 AM0x1fd22e54BUY0.730$5,110Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 10, 08:14 AM0x807b2d3dBUY0.690$1,380Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 8, 01:43 PM0x4aa34de7BUY0.730$3,650Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 8, 09:52 AM0xea5e0efeBUY0.900$1,449Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 8, 09:52 AM0xea5e0efeBUY0.900$1,474Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 8, 09:52 AM0xea5e0efeBUY0.830$1,758Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 8, 09:11 AM0x5683dd1dBUY0.350$1,750Killed band — neutral expectation
Apr 6, 07:33 PM0xf5d928f7BUY0.420$2,124
Apr 5, 06:50 PM0x07bdb5efBUY0.390$1,509Killed band — neutral expectation
Apr 5, 05:50 PM0x65e9a81fSELL0.999$13.0K— (SELL)
Apr 5, 05:47 PM0xc29088c9BUY0.810$1,522Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 5, 05:08 PM0x65e9a81fBUY0.850$8,500Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 4, 10:01 PM0x8f96fc29BUY0.610$1,928Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 4, 02:07 PM0xe3a66b2cBUY0.840$2,977Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 4, 02:07 PM0x09b3f22aSELL0.994$13.3K— (SELL)
Apr 4, 01:12 PM0x09b3f22aBUY0.830$1,556Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 4, 01:09 PM0x09b3f22aBUY0.729$1,381Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 4, 01:08 PM0xcbd7f01fSELL0.999$4,828— (SELL)
Apr 4, 01:00 PM0xeba5e23bSELL0.999$1,662— (SELL)
Apr 4, 12:48 PM0xf55a4d10BUY0.840$1,034Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 4, 12:33 PM0xf55a4d10BUY0.600$2,985
Apr 4, 12:33 PM0xd39bc47eSELL0.999$13.2K— (SELL)
Apr 4, 10:24 AM0xb454c0e5SELL0.999$10.2K— (SELL)
Apr 4, 10:23 AM0xb454c0e5SELL0.999$10.2K— (SELL)
Apr 4, 09:33 AM0xc492357eSELL0.999$1,094— (SELL)
Apr 4, 08:16 AM0x957e9938BUY0.530$2,613
Apr 4, 08:09 AM0x350f87f3BUY0.510$1,363
Apr 3, 12:12 PM0x34141dd4SELL0.999$5,592— (SELL)
Apr 3, 12:12 PM0xe7d55d9fSELL0.999$7,915— (SELL)
Apr 3, 10:53 AM0x59cb1befBUY0.358$1,170Killed band — neutral expectation
Apr 3, 09:49 AM0xe798928eBUY0.770$7,647Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 2, 11:23 AM0x395424f6BUY0.380$1,492Killed band — neutral expectation
Apr 2, 11:19 AM0x395424f6BUY0.550$1,085
Apr 2, 11:18 AM0x395424f6BUY0.580$1,145
Apr 2, 11:17 AM0x395424f6BUY0.630$1,577Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 2, 11:16 AM0xd4d77f67SELL0.999$10.6K— (SELL)
Apr 2, 11:14 AM0xd4d77f67SELL0.999$14.1K— (SELL)
Mar 30, 05:54 PM0xa57a6022BUY0.981$1,864Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 30, 05:53 PM0xa57a6022BUY0.990$1,139Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 30, 05:52 PM0xa57a6022BUY0.990$3,620Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 30, 04:26 PM0xe3b714e9BUY0.996$7,271Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 29, 07:05 PM0x31c9cc1bBUY0.750$1,500Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 29, 07:01 PM0x31c9cc1bBUY0.700$1,400Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 29, 07:00 PM0x68cdf658SELL0.999$9,055— (SELL)
Mar 29, 06:51 PM0x31c9cc1bBUY0.725$5,442Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 29, 06:51 PM0x31c9cc1bBUY0.730$7,300Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 29, 06:21 PM0xf837aad1BUY0.390$3,251Killed band — neutral expectation
Mar 29, 05:43 PM0xc4ff04c1BUY0.780$1,551Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 29, 05:43 PM0xc4ff04c1BUY0.770$1,925Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 29, 05:14 PM0x68cdf658BUY0.480$1,838
Mar 29, 05:12 PM0x68cdf658BUY0.540$3,325
Mar 29, 05:12 PM0x68cdf658BUY0.540$1,080
Mar 29, 04:19 PM0xe09f3d53BUY0.820$4,261Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 29, 02:33 AM0xea06a46bBUY0.650$1,299Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 28, 07:03 PM0x35f8de3dBUY0.999$1,093Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 28, 07:02 PM0x00df8ec4BUY0.500$1,087
Mar 28, 06:18 PM0xfe9599d2BUY0.450$1,135
Mar 28, 06:09 PM0xc3bc6dd3BUY0.770$2,287Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 28, 03:51 PM0xcd152afbBUY0.999$1,733Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 28, 03:35 PM0x40a19953BUY0.930$1,392Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 28, 03:23 PM0x40a19953BUY0.900$1,895Above conviction band — net-negative

Markets active in

135 markets · sorted by volume
MarketCategoryTradesVolumeNet BUY
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Crypto1$99.7K+$99.7K
0xdbb47f473$42.6K$-18,895
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 WinnerOther2$35.4K$-5,903
0x5151d6a93$29.5K$-13,226
0xef3d9fe52$28.3K$-10,992
0x9a5d7c171$26.8K+$26.8K
0xe28a4ea43$25.3K$-8,531
0xd4d77f672$24.6K$-24,625
0x6263524a3$22.3K+$22.3K
0x65e9a81f2$21.6K$-4,549
0xb454c0e52$20.5K$-20,479
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?Other1$19.8K+$19.8K
LoL: Fnatic vs Shifters - Game 2 WinnerOther5$19.5K+$19.5K
0x07c00dcd7$18.3K+$18.3K
0x00370e364$17.6K$-6,703
LoL: KT Rolster vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 2 WinnerOther1$16.8K+$16.8K
LoL: Fnatic vs Shifters (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier PlayoffsOther3$16.3K+$16.3K
0x09b3f22a3$16.2K$-10,340
0x31c9cc1b4$15.6K+$15.6K
0x68cdf6584$15.3K$-2,812
0x607272c33$14.7K+$14.7K
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 WinnerOther1$14.7K$-14,740
0x17b7d99f1$14.3K$-14,312
0x0b9116e31$13.7K$-13,730
0xf53965911$13.4K$-13,353
0xd39bc47e1$13.2K$-13,174
0x52b6e6b51$12.8K+$12.8K
0xd4dff5892$12.4K+$12.4K
0xf855f5572$12.3K+$12.3K
0x19c80dd41$10.5K$-10,507

Showing top 30 by volume.