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skylove

Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0xaf39…3101 with our methodology badges per row.

0xaf3909f0123a907b22d7add2cd1a59a072013101·Polymarket profile ↗
Resolved trades
28
lifetime
PnL per $
+32%
historical realized
Win rate
59.9%
volume-weighted
Volume resolved
$192.5K
across all resolved markets
Wave-34 gate verdict: ✓ passes

The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. This wallet clears the bar — its BUYs in 0.20–0.30 trigger our high-conviction tier.

Trades (90d)
79
Distinct markets
39
Volume (90d)
$482.3K
avg $6,105 / trade
BUY vs SELL
$281.7K / $200.6K
net direction

Recent trades

last 79 · 90d window
WhenMarketSidePriceSizeMethodology
Jun 21, 12:50 AMWill Spain win on 2026-06-21?BUY YES0.890$1,780Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 21, 12:49 AMWill France win on 2026-06-22?BUY YES0.910$2,275Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 21, 12:44 AMWill France win on 2026-06-22?BUY YES0.910$2,275Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 21, 12:41 AMWill Spain win on 2026-06-21?BUY YES0.890$2,670Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 21, 12:40 AMWill Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?BUY YES0.680$2,720Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 21, 12:39 AMWill Belgium win on 2026-06-21?BUY YES0.680$3,400Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 21, 12:36 AMWill Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?SELL YES0.760$12.2K— (SELL)
Jun 21, 12:15 AMWill Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?BUY YES0.820$8,200Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 05:20 AMWill A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026?BUY NO0.700$1,768Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 02:00 AMWill Mexico win on 2026-06-11?BUY YES0.690$1,035Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 4, 08:11 AMWill Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.740$1,184Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 4, 08:00 AMWill France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.790$1,975Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 4, 01:18 AMWill Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral ElectionBUY YES0.998$2,315Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 4, 12:06 AMWill Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral ElectionBUY YES0.973$7,028Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 3, 09:27 PMWill Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral ElectionBUY YES0.516$10.0K
Jun 1, 02:45 AMWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?SELL NO0.860$1,720— (SELL)
Jun 1, 02:41 AMWill Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral ElectionSELL YES0.830$7,505— (SELL)
May 31, 10:08 PMWill Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral ElectionSELL YES0.823$18.8K— (SELL)
May 29, 02:00 PMWill Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral ElectionBUY YES0.740$1,958Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 10:50 PMWill Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral ElectionSELL YES0.780$2,340— (SELL)
May 15, 01:08 AMWill Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral ElectionBUY YES0.738$2,687Above conviction band — net-negative
May 12, 08:53 AMWill Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?SELL NO0.927$7,609— (SELL)
May 11, 11:19 PMLee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?BUY NO0.815$1,581Above conviction band — net-negative
May 11, 01:10 PMWill Trump visit China by May 15?SELL YES0.991$2,973— (SELL)
May 11, 01:09 PMLee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?BUY NO0.780$4,680Above conviction band — net-negative
May 7, 05:17 AMWill Trump visit China by May 15?BUY YES0.910$15.9KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 1, 02:51 PMWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?SELL NO0.790$2,370— (SELL)
May 1, 01:31 PMWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30?SELL NO0.920$9,292— (SELL)
Apr 23, 09:21 PMUS x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?SELL NO0.998$22.1K— (SELL)
Apr 23, 12:30 AMUS x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?BUY NO0.950$14.5KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Apr 22, 01:40 AMUS x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?BUY NO0.642$1,313Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 22, 01:28 AMUS x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?BUY NO0.930$10.9KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Apr 22, 01:28 AMUS x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?BUY NO0.930$10.9KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Apr 21, 10:51 AMUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?BUY YES0.910$1,231Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 21, 06:12 AMTrump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?BUY YES0.710$2,485Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 21, 06:06 AMTrump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?BUY YES0.830$2,241Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 21, 06:05 AMTrump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?BUY YES0.820$2,296Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 17, 07:27 AM0x9823d715BUY NO0.001$1,000
Apr 17, 01:19 AM0x01ffd0acSELL NO0.830$5,395— (SELL)
Apr 15, 12:43 PM0x894a2611BUY NO0.949$11.2KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Apr 15, 12:40 PMTrump out as President by June 30?SELL NO0.940$9,377— (SELL)
Apr 15, 12:36 PMTrump out as President by April 30?SELL NO0.992$2,584— (SELL)
Apr 15, 10:20 AM0x894a2611BUY NO0.950$10.5KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Apr 15, 10:19 AMWill the Iranian regime fall by April 30?SELL NO0.981$7,687— (SELL)
Apr 15, 10:19 AMWill the Iranian regime fall by April 30?SELL NO0.981$2,122— (SELL)
Apr 15, 10:08 AM0x894a2611BUY NO0.950$40.7KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Apr 10, 12:26 AM0x01ffd0acSELL NO0.840$6,212— (SELL)
Apr 9, 09:55 AMWill Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral ElectionSELL NO0.992$15.1K— (SELL)
Apr 9, 09:53 AMWill Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral ElectionBUY NO0.993$16.0KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Apr 8, 01:43 AMTrump out as President before 2027?SELL NO0.840$3,396— (SELL)
Apr 8, 01:41 AM0x9e570fa9BUY NO0.902$7,648Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 7, 12:24 PMWill Kim Dong-yeon win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election?SELL NO0.998$1,144— (SELL)
Apr 7, 09:49 AMWill Kim Dong-yeon win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election?BUY NO0.960$1,100Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 6, 07:19 AMTrump out as President before 2027?BUY NO0.840$4,200Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 6, 07:17 AMTrump out as President by June 30?BUY NO0.950$4,743Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 6, 07:16 AMTrump out as President by June 30?BUY NO0.950$4,743Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 6, 07:16 AMTrump out as President by April 30?BUY NO0.986$3,254Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 6, 01:48 AMWill Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral ElectionBUY YES0.790$1,580Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 2, 08:35 AM0x01ffd0acBUY NO0.770$2,310Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 2, 08:12 AMWill Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral ElectionBUY YES0.829$6,116Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 1, 01:32 PM0x4c5701bcSELL NO0.910$5,915— (SELL)
Apr 1, 01:27 AM0x4c5701bcBUY NO0.910$1,365Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 1, 01:02 AM0x4c5701bcBUY NO0.910$3,227Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 1, 12:59 AMUS x Iran ceasefire by December 31?SELL YES0.730$4,387— (SELL)
Apr 1, 12:58 AMUS x Iran ceasefire by June 30?SELL YES0.640$3,200— (SELL)
Mar 31, 06:18 AM0x01ffd0acBUY NO0.710$4,281Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 31, 06:15 AM0xcab77c44BUY NO0.991$4,656Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 30, 12:44 PM0xf54aebcbSELL NO0.999$3,113— (SELL)
Mar 30, 12:40 PMUS x Iran ceasefire by December 31?SELL YES0.720$4,320— (SELL)
Mar 29, 10:43 PMUS x Iran ceasefire by June 30?SELL YES0.580$3,402— (SELL)
Mar 29, 10:41 PMUS x Iran ceasefire by December 31?SELL YES0.740$4,440— (SELL)
Mar 29, 06:24 AMUS x Iran ceasefire by June 30?SELL YES0.610$2,379— (SELL)
Mar 29, 06:21 AM0xcab77c44BUY NO0.978$4,189Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 27, 01:40 PM0x306d10d4BUY NO0.840$3,706Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 27, 01:38 PM0x61ce3773SELL NO0.993$9,930— (SELL)
Mar 26, 12:18 AMUS x Iran ceasefire by June 30?BUY YES0.660$9,900Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 26, 12:15 AMUS x Iran ceasefire by December 31?BUY YES0.776$14.0KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Mar 24, 11:11 PMUS x Iran ceasefire by March 31?SELL NO0.800$6,812— (SELL)
Mar 24, 02:25 PMUS x Iran ceasefire by March 31?SELL NO0.860$12.9K— (SELL)

Markets active in

39 markets · sorted by volume
MarketCategoryTradesVolumeNet BUY
0x894a26113$62.5K+$62.5K
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral ElectionPolitics8$51.0K$-6,265
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Other3$37.8K$-6,286
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral ElectionPolitics2$31.1K+$965
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?Other4$27.1K+$830
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?Other2$21.7K+$21.7K
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?Other2$20.4K$-3,960
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?Other2$19.7K$-19,712
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?Other4$18.9K+$919
Will Trump visit China by May 15?Politics2$18.9K+$12.9K
Trump out as President by June 30?Politics3$18.9K+$109
0x01ffd0ac4$18.2K$-5,016
0x4c5701bc3$10.5K$-1,323
0x61ce37731$9,930$-9,930
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?Other2$9,810$-9,810
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral ElectionPolitics2$9,344+$9,344
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Other1$9,292$-9,292
0xcab77c442$8,845+$8,845
0x9e570fa91$7,648+$7,648
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?Politics1$7,609$-7,609
Trump out as President before 2027?Politics2$7,596+$804
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?Other2$6,261+$6,261
Trump out as President by April 30?Politics2$5,838+$669
Will France win on 2026-06-22?Other2$4,550+$4,550
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?Politics2$4,537+$4,537
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?Tech2$4,450+$4,450
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Other2$4,090$-4,090
0x306d10d41$3,706+$3,706
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?Other1$3,400+$3,400
0xf54aebcb1$3,113$-3,113

Showing top 30 by volume.