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SlenderMan

Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0xab19…4876 with our methodology badges per row.

0xab19716584931d81cd9e7763402673a64baa4876·Polymarket profile ↗
Resolved trades
15
lifetime
PnL per $
-8%
historical realized
Win rate
74.9%
volume-weighted
Volume resolved
$113.1K
across all resolved markets
Wave-34 gate verdict: ✗ fails

The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. 15 resolved trades · -8% PnL/$. Misses the threshold; cheap-band BUYs would surface as Watch tier only.

Trades (90d)
39
Distinct markets
19
Volume (90d)
$357.7K
avg $9,172 / trade
BUY vs SELL
$299.2K / $58.5K
net direction

Recent trades

last 39 · 90d window
WhenMarketSidePriceSizeMethodology
Jun 12, 12:59 PMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?BUY NO0.874$2,452Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 04:56 AMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14SELL NO0.750$1,268— (SELL)
Jun 12, 02:44 AMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?SELL NO0.920$1,483— (SELL)
Jun 11, 05:39 PMTrump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15?BUY NO0.870$10.4KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 05:38 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?BUY NO0.860$12.7KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 08:59 AMTrump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15?BUY NO0.910$3,226Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 12:08 AMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?BUY NO0.994$1,869Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 10:35 PMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?BUY NO0.982$1,238Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 10:32 PMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?BUY NO0.990$1,069Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 10:19 PMUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?BUY NO0.984$1,688Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 6, 02:59 AMWill Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 7, 2026?BUY NO0.970$6,165Above conviction band — net-negative
May 27, 04:04 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?BUY NO0.790$39.5KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 05:05 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?SELL NO0.864$14.2K— (SELL)
May 21, 06:50 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?BUY NO0.928$3,861Above conviction band — net-negative
May 21, 06:49 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?BUY NO0.860$4,365Above conviction band — net-negative
May 21, 05:30 PMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?BUY NO0.915$2,071Above conviction band — net-negative
May 15, 02:19 AMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?SELL YES0.110$3,546— (SELL)
Apr 27, 10:50 AMWill the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?BUY NO0.810$1,104Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 21, 02:36 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?BUY NO0.890$3,301Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 7, 11:24 PM0x4c5701bcBUY YES0.988$22.2KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Apr 7, 11:13 PM0x773abaa5SELL NO0.040$3,722— (SELL)
Apr 7, 11:13 PM0x773abaa5SELL NO0.056$1,093— (SELL)
Apr 7, 09:33 PMUS x Iran ceasefire by April 30?SELL NO0.480$2,942— (SELL)
Apr 7, 09:30 PMUS x Iran ceasefire by April 30?BUY NO0.500$2,264—
Apr 7, 09:26 PMUS x Iran ceasefire by April 30?SELL NO0.500$2,887— (SELL)
Apr 7, 08:07 PMUS x Iran ceasefire by April 30?SELL NO0.570$2,222— (SELL)
Apr 6, 12:37 AMUS x Iran ceasefire by April 30?SELL NO0.770$5,777— (SELL)
Apr 5, 11:40 PM0x773abaa5BUY NO0.890$53.1KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Apr 3, 04:13 PMUS forces enter Iran by April 30?SELL NO0.100$4,457— (SELL)
Apr 3, 01:48 AM0x773abaa5BUY NO0.920$10.6KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Apr 2, 01:17 AM0x773abaa5BUY NO0.820$35.1KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Apr 1, 04:14 AMWill the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31?BUY NO0.999$19.6KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Mar 31, 02:18 PM0x306d10d4BUY NO0.982$29.7KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Mar 30, 03:51 PM0x306d10d4BUY NO0.943$1,478Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 28, 12:29 PMUS x Iran ceasefire by March 31?BUY NO0.972$4,563Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 26, 02:57 PMUS x Iran ceasefire by March 31?SELL NO0.900$9,000— (SELL)
Mar 25, 06:01 PMUS x Iran ceasefire by March 31?SELL NO0.860$5,885— (SELL)
Mar 25, 01:40 PMUS x Iran ceasefire by March 31?BUY NO0.860$1,500Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 25, 12:38 PMUS x Iran ceasefire by March 31?BUY NO0.840$24.2KAbove conviction band — net-negative

Markets active in

19 markets · sorted by volume
MarketCategoryTradesVolumeNet BUY
0x773abaa5—5$103.5K+$93.9K
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?Other5$45.1K+$15.3K
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Other2$43.0K+$36.0K
0x306d10d4—2$31.2K+$31.2K
0x4c5701bc—1$22.2K+$22.2K
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31?Other1$19.6K+$19.6K
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?Other2$18.6K$-9,829
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?Other5$16.1K$-11,565
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15?Politics2$13.7K+$13.7K
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Other1$12.7K+$12.7K
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 7, 2026?Politics1$6,165+$6,165
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?Other4$5,864+$5,864
US forces enter Iran by April 30?Other1$4,457$-4,457
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?Other2$3,935+$969
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?Other1$3,861+$3,861
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?Other1$3,301+$3,301
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Tech1$2,071+$2,071
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14Other1$1,268$-1,267
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?Other1$1,104+$1,104