| Jun 13, 12:29 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? | BUY NO | 0.997 | $33.2K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 12, 12:30 PM | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? | BUY YES | 0.780 | $3,900 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 12, 11:53 AM | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.986 | $4,931 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 12, 11:43 AM | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.986 | $4,930 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 12, 07:46 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? | SELL NO | 0.994 | $3,804 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 12, 03:56 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? | SELL NO | 0.994 | $3,976 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 10, 11:27 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? | BUY NO | 0.995 | $7,562 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 10, 11:27 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? | BUY NO | 0.995 | $9,950 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 10, 10:02 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? | BUY NO | 0.995 | $9,950 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 10, 09:53 PM | Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO day? | BUY YES | 0.990 | $4,422 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 10, 09:52 PM | Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? | BUY NO | 0.997 | $2,616 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 9, 10:14 PM | Will Discord not IPO by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.986 | $1,645 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 8, 03:12 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $51.1K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 7, 01:48 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.993 | $9,930 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 6, 02:19 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.988 | $2,045 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 6, 02:17 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $50.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 6, 12:36 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5? | BUY NO | 0.998 | $17.2K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 6, 12:30 AM | Will Discord not IPO by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.970 | $1,654 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 6, 12:24 AM | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? | BUY NO | 0.975 | $2,560 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 19, 12:46 PM | Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.820 | $1,517 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 17, 03:44 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | SELL NO | 0.991 | $46.1K | — (SELL) |
| May 17, 03:44 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | SELL NO | 0.991 | $20.9K | — (SELL) |
| May 17, 03:44 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | SELL NO | 0.991 | $6,910 | — (SELL) |
| May 17, 05:32 AM | Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.992 | $1,850 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 17, 05:32 AM | Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.992 | $4,142 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 14, 03:08 AM | Starmer out by May 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.955 | $3,343 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 14, 03:07 AM | Starmer out by May 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.954 | $1,566 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 14, 03:06 AM | Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | SELL NO | 0.986 | $4,930 | — (SELL) |
| May 12, 10:28 PM | Starmer out by May 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.950 | $1,250 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 12, 02:04 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.984 | $11.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 12, 08:47 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.998 | $2,994 | — (SELL) |
| May 11, 06:54 AM | Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.981 | $26.4K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 9, 08:52 AM | Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.981 | $3,327 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 9, 03:26 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $39.9K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 8, 01:09 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.972 | $14.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 4, 12:40 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.971 | $1,045 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 3, 11:03 AM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.985 | $2,407 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 3, 11:02 AM | Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.820 | $4,100 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 3, 04:02 AM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.986 | $20.5K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 2, 05:32 AM | Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? | BUY NO | 0.961 | $2,110 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 29, 12:32 PM | MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$800M one day after launch? | BUY YES | 0.940 | $2,350 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 29, 12:26 PM | MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$800M one day after launch? | BUY YES | 0.940 | $1,880 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 29, 11:46 AM | MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$800M one day after launch? | BUY YES | 0.940 | $7,520 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 29, 10:13 AM | MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$800M one day after launch? | BUY YES | 0.940 | $6,110 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 29, 10:12 AM | Trump out as President by April 30? | SELL NO | 0.998 | $4,990 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 29, 10:10 AM | Will Trump visit North Korea by April 30? | SELL NO | 0.999 | $1,530 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 17, 02:12 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.770 | $2,976 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 17, 02:12 AM | Trump out as President by April 30? | SELL NO | 0.992 | $2,976 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 4, 01:35 AM | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | BUY NO | 0.160 | $1,569 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Apr 4, 01:34 AM | 0x7cb525e8 | SELL NO | 0.999 | $1,998 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 1, 10:48 AM | 0x7cb525e8 | BUY NO | 0.999 | $11.1K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 1, 07:54 AM | 0x7cb525e8 | BUY NO | 0.999 | $2,545 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 23, 07:30 PM | 0xfc142b3b | BUY NO | 0.950 | $1,477 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |