| Jun 12, 07:57 PM | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? | SELL YES | 0.998 | $1,801 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 12, 03:47 PM | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? | SELL YES | 0.820 | $1,396 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 12, 02:12 PM | SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? | BUY YES | 0.600 | $1,177 | —— |
| Jun 12, 01:49 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.750 | $2,446 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 11:21 PM | Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | SELL YES | 0.957 | $2,010 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 11:20 PM | Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | SELL NO | 0.968 | $9,815 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 10:43 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 | BUY NO | 0.751 | $3,278 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 09:59 PM | Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | SELL NO | 0.937 | $8,299 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 09:59 PM | Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | SELL NO | 0.938 | $2,343 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 09:41 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.895 | $3,524 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 09:33 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | BUY YES | 0.790 | $1,987 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 09:09 PM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.758 | $1,878 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 08:21 PM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.920 | $1,793 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 07:03 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.810 | $3,505 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 07:03 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.820 | $4,100 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 04:39 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.690 | $2,074 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 01:12 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.160 | $1,600 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 08:04 AM | Iran coup attempt by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.900 | $1,275 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 10, 10:13 PM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.680 | $1,694 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 10, 09:07 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.710 | $3,550 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 10, 08:47 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? | SELL YES | 0.560 | $2,359 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 10, 08:08 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL NO | 0.820 | $5,607 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 10, 06:15 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL NO | 0.820 | $3,967 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 10, 05:26 PM | Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? | SELL NO | 0.850 | $1,147 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 10, 11:20 AM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.920 | $1,676 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 9, 05:21 PM | Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.991 | $2,476 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 9, 05:10 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.930 | $1,395 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 9, 10:00 AM | Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? | BUY NO | 0.880 | $1,760 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 9, 09:59 AM | Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? | BUY NO | 0.880 | $1,760 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 8, 08:31 PM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.880 | $1,603 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 8, 10:44 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.950 | $5,700 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 7, 10:18 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.690 | $1,638 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 7, 09:49 PM | Israel closes its airspace by June 15? | BUY NO | 0.690 | $2,776 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 7, 09:49 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.980 | $2,616 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 7, 07:38 PM | Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | SELL YES | 0.700 | $1,026 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 7, 04:13 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.140 | $1,287 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 7, 06:13 AM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.680 | $1,020 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 6, 09:55 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.670 | $1,915 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 6, 07:06 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? | BUY NO | 0.870 | $1,470 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 6, 01:57 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.614 | $1,648 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 6, 05:49 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? | BUY NO | 0.870 | $1,305 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 6, 05:45 AM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.790 | $1,419 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 5, 09:31 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.510 | $1,191 | —— |
| Jun 5, 09:12 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.840 | $1,943 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 5, 07:36 PM | Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | BUY YES | 0.620 | $1,918 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 5, 07:25 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.110 | $1,444 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 5, 07:02 AM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 7, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.950 | $1,593 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 4, 08:29 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.440 | $2,748 | —— |
| Jun 4, 08:13 PM | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.860 | $3,440 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 4, 08:13 PM | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.860 | $4,300 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 4, 10:17 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? | BUY NO | 0.740 | $1,402 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 4, 10:14 AM | Iran Nuke before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.918 | $1,813 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 4, 08:16 AM | Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | BUY NO | 0.920 | $2,760 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 4, 08:15 AM | Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.937 | $11.8K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 3, 08:41 PM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.720 | $5,365 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 3, 08:41 PM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.730 | $1,700 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 3, 04:07 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? | BUY NO | 0.910 | $1,439 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 3, 07:59 AM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.997 | $9,970 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 3, 06:58 AM | Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? | SELL NO | 0.760 | $1,415 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 2, 11:02 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL YES | 0.210 | $1,312 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 2, 11:02 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | SELL YES | 0.381 | $2,277 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 2, 10:33 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.989 | $3,956 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 2, 10:13 PM | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.975 | $1,521 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 2, 10:00 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.500 | $1,000 | —— |
| Jun 2, 05:52 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.993 | $14.9K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 2, 03:52 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.993 | $2,981 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 2, 03:52 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.993 | $5,555 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 2, 10:57 AM | Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? | BUY NO | 0.775 | $1,857 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 2, 10:05 AM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.992 | $14.9K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 2, 10:04 AM | Will GameStop acquire eBay? | SELL NO | 0.850 | $1,644 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 2, 10:03 AM | Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.980 | $7,175 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 2, 10:03 AM | Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | SELL NO | 0.944 | $7,312 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 2, 10:03 AM | Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.985 | $1,880 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 1, 09:48 PM | Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? | BUY NO | 0.710 | $1,770 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 03:55 PM | Will GameStop acquire eBay? | BUY NO | 0.860 | $1,720 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 03:20 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.110 | $1,044 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 1, 01:31 PM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.758 | $2,492 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 07:50 AM | Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | BUY NO | 0.790 | $3,979 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 06:41 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? | BUY NO | 0.760 | $1,135 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 31, 11:07 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? | BUY NO | 0.880 | $1,787 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 31, 11:06 PM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.637 | $1,999 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 31, 11:02 PM | Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.987 | $2,961 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 31, 09:32 PM | Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.890 | $1,770 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 31, 08:43 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? | BUY NO | 0.860 | $1,783 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 31, 08:33 PM | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | SELL NO | 0.999 | $2,929 | — (SELL) |
| May 31, 08:25 PM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? | SELL NO | 0.999 | $1,418 | — (SELL) |
| May 31, 07:06 PM | Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.984 | $1,672 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 31, 03:15 PM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.883 | $10.6K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 31, 03:15 PM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.883 | $4,415 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 31, 01:18 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.279 | $1,275 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 31, 10:27 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? | BUY NO | 0.668 | $1,593 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 31, 08:22 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? | BUY NO | 0.840 | $1,097 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 30, 08:21 PM | Netanyahu out by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.963 | $1,150 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 30, 02:26 PM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.438 | $1,921 | —— |
| May 29, 10:36 PM | Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.746 | $1,583 | — (SELL) |
| May 29, 10:36 PM | Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? | SELL NO | 0.952 | $3,104 | — (SELL) |
| May 29, 10:29 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | SELL NO | 0.750 | $2,045 | — (SELL) |
| May 29, 10:29 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | SELL NO | 0.750 | $1,042 | — (SELL) |
| May 29, 08:46 PM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.760 | $1,812 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 29, 07:17 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.753 | $7,907 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 29, 06:55 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL YES | 0.380 | $1,036 | — (SELL) |
| May 29, 06:54 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL YES | 0.390 | $1,793 | — (SELL) |
| May 29, 06:13 PM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.507 | $3,295 | —— |
| May 29, 06:09 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL NO | 0.820 | $7,551 | — (SELL) |
| May 29, 06:09 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL YES | 0.424 | $1,825 | — (SELL) |
| May 29, 06:09 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL YES | 0.430 | $1,677 | — (SELL) |
| May 29, 05:26 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.710 | $1,569 | — (SELL) |
| May 29, 05:25 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.860 | $1,290 | — (SELL) |
| May 29, 04:15 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | SELL YES | 0.620 | $1,573 | — (SELL) |
| May 29, 08:32 AM | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.976 | $1,467 | — (SELL) |
| May 29, 07:15 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.910 | $1,661 | — (SELL) |
| May 28, 09:19 AM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.880 | $1,245 | — (SELL) |
| May 28, 09:16 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.200 | $1,380 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 27, 10:23 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 27? | SELL NO | 0.975 | $6,778 | — (SELL) |
| May 27, 10:05 PM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.940 | $1,039 | — (SELL) |
| May 27, 09:02 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.911 | $1,089 | — (SELL) |
| May 27, 07:33 PM | Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.934 | $2,211 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 27, 08:00 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.210 | $4,200 | — (SELL) |
| May 26, 09:33 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY YES | 0.410 | $3,433 | —— |
| May 26, 09:30 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.270 | $2,575 | — (SELL) |
| May 26, 06:55 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 27? | BUY NO | 0.937 | $3,226 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 26, 03:59 PM | Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.849 | $2,483 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 26, 03:58 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 24? | SELL NO | 0.992 | $4,819 | — (SELL) |
| May 26, 02:48 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.240 | $1,200 | — (SELL) |
| May 26, 01:35 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 27? | BUY NO | 0.931 | $1,399 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 26, 01:13 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 24? | BUY NO | 0.992 | $6,487 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 26, 01:13 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 27? | BUY NO | 0.922 | $2,254 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 26, 09:34 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY YES | 0.430 | $5,041 | —— |
| May 26, 06:04 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.940 | $1,673 | — (SELL) |
| May 25, 08:07 PM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? | SELL NO | 0.987 | $1,816 | — (SELL) |
| May 25, 05:16 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25? | BUY NO | 0.949 | $1,442 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 01:09 PM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.740 | $1,207 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 10:04 AM | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.910 | $4,095 | — (SELL) |
| May 25, 08:58 AM | Iran closes its airspace by May 24? | BUY NO | 0.978 | $1,910 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 24, 09:56 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL YES | 0.460 | $2,745 | — (SELL) |
| May 24, 09:31 PM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? | SELL NO | 0.981 | $5,068 | — (SELL) |
| May 24, 09:17 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31? | BUY YES | 0.565 | $1,242 | —— |
| May 24, 09:06 PM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.670 | $1,699 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 24, 02:36 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL NO | 0.820 | $2,984 | — (SELL) |
| May 24, 02:32 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL YES | 0.516 | $3,034 | — (SELL) |
| May 24, 02:29 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.770 | $3,325 | — (SELL) |
| May 24, 09:08 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.750 | $2,188 | — (SELL) |
| May 24, 09:08 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.750 | $2,188 | — (SELL) |
| May 24, 07:58 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY YES | 0.600 | $4,223 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 24, 07:40 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.380 | $1,140 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 24, 06:16 AM | Starmer out by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.220 | $1,915 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 24, 05:44 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? | BUY NO | 0.580 | $3,622 | —— |
| May 23, 10:32 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? | BUY NO | 0.302 | $2,428 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 23, 10:09 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.519 | $1,796 | —— |
| May 23, 09:41 PM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.940 | $1,880 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 08:41 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23? | BUY NO | 0.606 | $1,308 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 07:33 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23? | BUY NO | 0.790 | $1,235 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 03:09 PM | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | SELL NO | 0.954 | $2,849 | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 02:37 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL YES | 0.382 | $1,073 | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 02:31 PM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.669 | $1,544 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 02:04 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? | SELL YES | 0.920 | $1,196 | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 09:21 AM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? | BUY YES | 0.750 | $1,546 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 07:40 AM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? | SELL YES | 0.760 | $1,029 | — (SELL) |
| May 22, 11:01 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? | SELL YES | 0.867 | $1,344 | — (SELL) |
| May 22, 10:07 PM | Iran leadership change by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.880 | $1,144 | — (SELL) |
| May 22, 10:03 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.690 | $1,035 | — (SELL) |
| May 22, 09:21 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.880 | $1,020 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 22, 08:58 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.700 | $1,050 | — (SELL) |
| May 22, 06:59 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.840 | $1,628 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 22, 06:59 PM | Iran leadership change by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.890 | $1,157 | — (SELL) |
| May 22, 04:24 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL YES | 0.370 | $1,401 | — (SELL) |
| May 22, 03:11 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL YES | 0.370 | $1,610 | — (SELL) |
| May 22, 12:55 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.213 | $1,029 | — (SELL) |
| May 22, 07:22 AM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.780 | $2,226 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 21, 07:25 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.130 | $1,308 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 21, 06:53 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.700 | $1,295 | — (SELL) |
| May 21, 06:43 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL NO | 0.770 | $4,235 | — (SELL) |
| May 21, 05:49 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 24? | SELL NO | 0.890 | $1,422 | — (SELL) |
| May 20, 10:22 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21? | BUY YES | 0.950 | $8,993 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 20, 04:57 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.690 | $1,395 | — (SELL) |
| May 20, 04:37 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.360 | $1,274 | — (SELL) |
| May 20, 03:00 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 21? | SELL NO | 0.935 | $5,201 | — (SELL) |
| May 20, 03:00 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 21? | SELL NO | 0.940 | $2,527 | — (SELL) |
| May 20, 02:56 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 21? | SELL NO | 0.950 | $1,627 | — (SELL) |
| May 19, 09:18 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | SELL NO | 0.810 | $2,707 | — (SELL) |
| May 19, 09:17 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.940 | $3,760 | — (SELL) |
| May 19, 08:10 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.670 | $1,005 | — (SELL) |
| May 19, 05:27 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 21? | BUY NO | 0.870 | $8,700 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 19, 08:00 AM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.930 | $1,209 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 19, 07:59 AM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.790 | $1,580 | — (SELL) |
| May 18, 09:38 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 24? | BUY NO | 0.740 | $4,842 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 18, 09:36 PM | Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | SELL NO | 0.920 | $3,242 | — (SELL) |
| May 18, 09:33 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 24? | BUY NO | 0.730 | $1,369 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 18, 06:43 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.240 | $1,122 | — (SELL) |
| May 18, 08:19 AM | Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.987 | $2,087 | — (SELL) |
| May 18, 07:51 AM | Starmer out by December 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.150 | $1,597 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 16, 06:57 AM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.760 | $1,881 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 16, 06:56 AM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.760 | $1,520 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 15, 09:56 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.890 | $1,780 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 15, 09:43 PM | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | SELL NO | 0.950 | $4,551 | — (SELL) |
| May 15, 09:10 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.330 | $5,493 | — (SELL) |
| May 13, 01:15 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.750 | $1,910 | — (SELL) |
| May 13, 01:07 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | SELL NO | 0.890 | $1,777 | — (SELL) |
| May 13, 01:01 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | SELL NO | 0.997 | $2,891 | — (SELL) |
| May 13, 12:21 PM | Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 13? | BUY NO | 0.978 | $1,361 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |