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CongMingLabs

Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0xa8b2…9a39 with our methodology badges per row.

0xa8b202e6e9a4c2091b6860f1f5c9e9119bbc9a39·Polymarket profile ↗
Resolved trades
37
lifetime
PnL per $
-30%
historical realized
Win rate
69.8%
volume-weighted
Volume resolved
$5.03M
across all resolved markets
Wave-34 gate verdict: ✗ fails

The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. 37 resolved trades · -30% PnL/$. Misses the threshold; cheap-band BUYs would surface as Watch tier only.

Trades (90d)
66
Distinct markets
24
Volume (90d)
$6.37M
avg $96.6K / trade
BUY vs SELL
$4.72M / $1.65M
net direction

Recent trades

last 66 · 90d window
WhenMarketSidePriceSizeMethodology
Jun 13, 12:09 PMWill China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?BUY NO0.994$2,334Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 13, 12:09 PMWill China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?BUY NO0.994$7,127Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 13, 12:09 PMWill China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?BUY NO0.994$2,614Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 06:34 PMWill China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?BUY NO0.992$7,315Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 5, 11:58 AMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.986$66.3KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 5, 07:08 AMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.984$20.4KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Jun 3, 04:32 AMMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?BUY NO0.997$598.3KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 06:03 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.973$4,187Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 09:52 AMWill the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?BUY YES0.978$33.6KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 09:50 AMWill the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?BUY YES0.977$10.9KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 07:33 AMWill the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?BUY YES0.954$2,516Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 07:08 AMWill the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?BUY YES0.959$2,524Above conviction band — net-negative
May 19, 01:12 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.980$1,871Above conviction band — net-negative
May 19, 01:12 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.980$1,472Above conviction band — net-negative
May 19, 01:12 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.980$1,391Above conviction band — net-negative
May 19, 01:12 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.980$8,467Above conviction band — net-negative
May 19, 06:57 AMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.979$10.7KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 19, 04:37 AMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.979$35.4KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 19, 01:12 AMWill Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?BUY NO0.989$7,829Above conviction band — net-negative
May 19, 01:08 AMWill Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?SELL NO0.989$5,552— (SELL)
May 18, 11:16 AMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.979$13.7KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 18, 11:15 AMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.978$2,321Above conviction band — net-negative
May 18, 04:22 AMWill Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?BUY NO0.993$7,043Above conviction band — net-negative
May 15, 07:30 AMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.978$43.5KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 15, 03:40 AMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.976$9,379Above conviction band — net-negative
May 15, 03:39 AMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.976$10.6KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 15, 03:39 AMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.976$52.9KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 15, 03:39 AMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.976$7,008Above conviction band — net-negative
May 12, 12:34 PMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?BUY YES0.971$23.5KAbove conviction band — net-negative
May 8, 04:42 AMTrump out as President by May 31?BUY NO0.991$1,471Above conviction band — net-negative
May 3, 07:30 AMWill Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?BUY NO0.997$154.3KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Apr 30, 04:29 PMUS x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?BUY NO0.999$3.06MAbove conviction band — net-negative
Apr 30, 03:41 PMKevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1?SELL NO0.999$2,220— (SELL)
Apr 29, 04:37 PMIran leadership change by April 30?SELL NO0.990$11.4K— (SELL)
Apr 21, 07:00 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?BUY NO0.956$1,076Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 21, 06:36 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?BUY NO0.970$13.7KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Apr 21, 03:22 PMUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?SELL YES0.851$1,035— (SELL)
Apr 18, 09:00 AM0xdb788682SELL NO0.917$9,453— (SELL)
Apr 18, 08:42 AM0xd81f6116SELL NO0.996$64.6K— (SELL)
Apr 17, 01:08 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?SELL NO0.603$1,958— (SELL)
Apr 17, 01:07 PMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?SELL NO0.611$2,702— (SELL)
Apr 17, 12:53 PM0xd81f6116BUY NO0.990$13.2KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Apr 17, 05:31 AMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?BUY NO0.770$1,559Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 17, 05:28 AMWill Donald Trump publicly insult J.D. Vance by April 30, 2026?BUY NO0.983$1,276Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 17, 03:50 AMTrump out as President by April 30?BUY NO0.993$22.8KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Apr 16, 11:13 AMMojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by April 30, 2026?BUY NO0.984$1,641Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 16, 08:31 AM0xdb788682BUY NO0.910$1,630Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 16, 04:06 AM0x894a2611BUY NO0.999$172.5KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Apr 16, 01:23 AM0x46f15cb0BUY NO0.998$1,774Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 15, 05:33 PM0x68beecc8BUY NO0.985$10.3KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Apr 15, 04:45 PM0x46f15cb0BUY NO0.994$10.8KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Apr 15, 04:42 PM0x46f15cb0BUY NO0.993$12.2KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Apr 15, 01:15 PM0x68beecc8BUY NO0.985$6,703Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 15, 01:12 PM0x68beecc8BUY NO0.985$13.9KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Apr 15, 01:00 PM0x68beecc8BUY NO0.981$31.0KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Apr 15, 06:49 AM0x68beecc8BUY NO0.975$19.3KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Apr 15, 04:46 AMWill no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?BUY NO0.969$2,306Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 15, 02:30 AM0x46f15cb0BUY NO0.982$29.3KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Apr 14, 03:24 PM0x46f15cb0BUY NO0.985$21.6KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Apr 14, 02:26 PMTrump out as President by April 30?BUY NO0.990$26.5KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Apr 14, 02:23 PM0x46f15cb0BUY NO0.980$1,573Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 10, 03:50 PMTrump out as President by April 30?BUY NO0.986$28.7KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Apr 10, 03:47 PM0x4c5701bcSELL YES0.999$59.9K— (SELL)
Apr 6, 01:34 AMTrump out as President by April 30?BUY NO0.983$16.2KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Apr 5, 12:47 PMUS forces enter Iran by April 30?SELL YES0.997$1.50M— (SELL)
Mar 23, 12:00 PM0xfc9ee9c2BUY NO0.997$42.5KAbove conviction band — net-negative

Markets active in

24 markets · sorted by volume
MarketCategoryTradesVolumeNet BUY
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Other1$3.06M+$3.06M
US forces enter Iran by April 30?Other1$1.50M$-1,495,500
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Crypto1$598.3K+$598.3K
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?Finance17$313.0K+$313.0K
0x894a2611—1$172.5K+$172.5K
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?Tech1$154.3K+$154.3K
Trump out as President by April 30?Politics4$94.2K+$94.2K
0x68beecc8—5$81.2K+$81.2K
0xd81f6116—2$77.8K$-51,348
0x46f15cb0—6$77.4K+$77.4K
0x4c5701bc—1$59.9K$-59,940
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?Other4$49.5K+$49.5K
0xfc9ee9c2—1$42.5K+$42.5K
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?Other5$21.0K+$11.7K
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?Politics3$20.4K+$9,321
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?Tech4$19.4K+$19.4K
Iran leadership change by April 30?Other1$11.4K$-11,368
0xdb788682—2$11.1K$-7,824
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?Other1$2,306+$2,306
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1?Tech1$2,220$-2,220
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by April 30, 2026?Other1$1,641+$1,641
Trump out as President by May 31?Politics1$1,471+$1,471
Will Donald Trump publicly insult J.D. Vance by April 30, 2026?Politics1$1,276+$1,276
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?Other1$1,035$-1,035