2024

Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0xa868…2038 with our methodology badges per row.

0xa868e59a21a4c304c2573735fe87e19dc11f2038·Polymarket profile ↗

Resolved trades

lifetime

PnL per $

-8%

historical realized

Win rate

91.9%

volume-weighted

Volume resolved

$191.7K

across all resolved markets

Wave-34 gate verdict: ✗ fails

The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. 34 resolved trades · -8% PnL/$. Misses the threshold; cheap-band BUYs would surface as Watch tier only.

Trades (90d)

119

Distinct markets

Volume (90d)

$502.6K

avg $4,223 / trade

BUY vs SELL

$468.0K / $34.6K

net direction

Recent trades

last 119 · 90d window

When	Market	Side	Price	Size	Methodology
Jun 20, 06:45 PM	Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	SELL YES	0.999	$11.6K	— (SELL)
Jun 20, 05:41 PM	Netherlands leading at halftime?	BUY YES	0.998	$1,647	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 20, 05:40 PM	Netherlands leading at halftime?	BUY YES	0.996	$12.6K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 20, 05:38 PM	Netherlands leading at halftime?	BUY YES	0.995	$9,951	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 13, 12:19 PM	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 14?	BUY YES	0.999	$9,991	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 13, 12:17 PM	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $54,000 and $56,000 on June 14?	BUY NO	0.999	$2,080	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 01:31 AM	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T?	BUY YES	0.989	$1,834	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 01:30 AM	ByteDance IPO before 2027?	SELL NO	0.940	$1,108	— (SELL)
Jun 10, 12:51 AM	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T?	BUY NO	0.995	$3,861	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 03:15 AM	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 9?	BUY YES	0.999	$2,997	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 03:07 AM	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 9?	BUY YES	0.999	$9,991	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 12:27 AM	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8?	BUY YES	0.998	$2,994	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 03:47 AM	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 7?	BUY NO	0.999	$2,228	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 6, 06:49 AM	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 6?	BUY NO	0.999	$5,016	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 5, 04:07 PM	Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June?	SELL YES	0.999	$8,092	— (SELL)
Jun 5, 03:23 PM	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 5?	BUY YES	0.999	$4,995	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 5, 12:27 AM	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 5?	BUY YES	0.996	$1,095	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 4, 12:18 AM	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 4?	BUY NO	0.997	$3,236	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 2, 03:27 PM	Will Bitcoin dip to $67,500 in June?	SELL YES	0.999	$1,199	— (SELL)
Jun 2, 03:19 PM	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 2?	SELL NO	0.999	$5,994	— (SELL)
Jun 2, 03:18 PM	Will Bitcoin dip to $67,500 in June?	BUY YES	0.990	$2,864	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 2, 03:17 PM	Will Bitcoin dip to $67,500 in June?	BUY YES	0.980	$3,425	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 2, 02:00 PM	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 2?	BUY NO	0.999	$5,994	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 03:07 AM	Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May?	BUY NO	0.994	$4,972	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 30, 01:58 AM	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 30?	BUY NO	0.999	$3,339	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 03:26 PM	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 29?	BUY YES	0.999	$4,887	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 02:40 PM	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 28?	BUY NO	0.999	$6,993	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 02:01 PM	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 28?	BUY NO	0.999	$2,475	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 03:46 PM	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 26?	BUY NO	0.999	$2,997	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 03:41 PM	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 26?	BUY NO	0.998	$1,735	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 02:59 PM	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 25?	BUY YES	0.999	$12.2K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 01:52 AM	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 23?	BUY NO	0.999	$8,127	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 03:51 PM	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 22?	BUY YES	0.999	$16.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 22, 03:46 PM	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 22?	BUY NO	0.998	$6,199	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 21, 03:10 PM	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 21?	BUY YES	0.999	$9,991	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 20, 02:47 PM	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 20?	BUY NO	0.999	$8,516	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 18, 03:56 PM	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 18?	BUY YES	0.999	$7,987	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 18, 01:42 AM	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 18?	BUY NO	0.995	$6,391	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 13, 05:32 AM	Will Mark Zuckerberg attend Trump’s Xi summit?	BUY NO	0.989	$3,238	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 13, 05:31 AM	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	SELL YES	0.999	$2,997	— (SELL)
May 12, 06:48 AM	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	BUY YES	0.994	$4,970	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 11, 01:12 AM	Will Trump visit China by May 15?	BUY YES	0.990	$5,000	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 10, 02:26 PM	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 10?	BUY NO	0.999	$1,146	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 29, 03:54 PM	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	BUY YES	0.999	$4,976	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 29, 01:14 AM	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET	BUY YES	0.999	$1,697	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 29, 01:08 AM	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	BUY YES	0.990	$6,480	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 28, 04:28 AM	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET	BUY YES	0.998	$2,513	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 27, 02:44 PM	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	BUY YES	0.999	$1,465	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 25, 03:58 PM	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET	BUY YES	0.999	$9,989	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 25, 09:42 AM	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET	BUY YES	0.990	$1,788	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 22, 05:55 AM	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 1AM ET	BUY YES	0.999	$8,479	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 22, 02:54 AM	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	BUY	0.990	$8,598	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 21, 06:32 AM	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	BUY	0.990	$9,893	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 20, 02:25 PM	0xf94dc623	BUY	0.998	$2,807	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 20, 02:25 PM	0xf94dc623	BUY	0.995	$1,376	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 20, 09:12 AM	0xf1eab2d3	BUY	0.999	$2,186	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 20, 05:52 AM	0x5f3c0745	BUY	0.998	$7,892	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 20, 05:08 AM	0xacac24d2	BUY	0.990	$2,968	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 20, 03:56 AM	0xe39a2e58	BUY	0.999	$1,174	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 20, 12:50 AM	0xa0b2ac02	BUY	0.999	$2,566	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 19, 11:57 AM	0x61f6a82e	BUY	0.999	$1,015	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 19, 11:56 AM	0x5ced1acc	BUY	0.999	$1,511	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 18, 04:58 AM	0x873248b5	BUY	0.999	$1,519	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 17, 05:12 AM	0xf17e5b20	BUY	0.999	$4,995	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 17, 05:12 AM	0xf17e5b20	BUY	0.999	$2,136	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 16, 01:54 PM	0xbc94b356	BUY	0.999	$2,111	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 16, 02:49 AM	0xddca7272	BUY	0.999	$1,347	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 15, 03:26 PM	0xc8cfe5e9	BUY	0.990	$1,729	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 15, 11:55 AM	0xfa2d78b7	BUY	0.998	$4,989	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 15, 11:53 AM	0xfa2d78b7	BUY	0.990	$5,099	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 15, 07:26 AM	0x74ca125f	BUY	0.998	$1,367	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 15, 05:54 AM	0x4b740b3d	BUY	0.999	$2,777	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 15, 12:56 AM	0xa5d7400b	BUY	0.998	$7,983	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 14, 03:57 PM	0x084a8f7b	BUY	0.999	$4,698	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 14, 03:43 PM	0xf8600f5e	BUY	0.999	$5,745	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 14, 03:41 PM	0xf8600f5e	BUY	0.998	$2,528	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 14, 02:40 PM	0x6e7e9d7e	BUY	0.990	$1,318	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 14, 08:36 AM	0xca28f326	BUY YES	0.995	$1,194	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 14, 06:56 AM	0x70058134	BUY	0.999	$2,144	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 14, 06:13 AM	0xc76800ae	BUY	0.999	$2,408	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 14, 02:21 AM	0xca28f326	BUY YES	0.987	$1,085	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 14, 01:51 AM	0x28016ab1	BUY	0.990	$1,979	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 13, 04:59 PM	0xedba434f	BUY	0.999	$17.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 13, 08:52 AM	0x384804ed	BUY	0.990	$1,257	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 13, 07:55 AM	0xb3a398da	BUY	0.997	$4,984	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 13, 06:57 AM	0x106b1423	BUY	0.999	$2,398	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 13, 06:12 AM	0x12e1f4c5	BUY	0.998	$1,305	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 11, 09:42 PM	0xe194d024	BUY	0.990	$1,007	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 10, 10:28 AM	0xd9885f59	BUY	0.990	$2,003	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 10, 03:57 AM	0x757e47c7	BUY	0.990	$1,124	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 10, 03:44 AM	0x16442846	BUY	0.999	$1,184	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 9, 11:58 PM	0x747c7179	BUY	0.990	$2,968	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 9, 11:57 PM	0x747c7179	BUY	0.990	$1,979	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 9, 03:54 PM	0x7487228c	BUY	0.999	$3,950	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 9, 09:57 AM	0xd79826eb	BUY	0.999	$4,312	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 8, 03:58 PM	0x49db0084	BUY	0.999	$6,993	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 8, 03:55 PM	0x49db0084	BUY	0.998	$5,431	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 8, 02:58 PM	0x037794b0	BUY	0.999	$4,474	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 8, 01:41 PM	0xf402846b	BUY	0.999	$9,989	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 8, 07:49 AM	0x8eee9268	BUY	0.990	$1,037	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 7, 03:58 PM	0xf68bfe8e	BUY	0.999	$1,448	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 7, 03:28 PM	0xd2fcfa85	BUY	0.999	$5,417	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 7, 03:27 PM	0xd2fcfa85	BUY	0.998	$4,510	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 7, 02:11 PM	0x19a4f6a6	BUY	0.996	$1,378	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 7, 01:48 PM	0xc05a55e2	BUY	0.990	$3,013	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 7, 09:29 AM	0x7cf5ff2a	BUY	0.999	$1,304	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 7, 09:14 AM	0x8d81d4cc	BUY	0.999	$1,278	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 7, 09:09 AM	0x8d81d4cc	BUY	0.990	$1,405	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 7, 08:43 AM	0xa1e74431	BUY	0.999	$1,998	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 7, 04:14 AM	0x134f8375	BUY	0.999	$1,363	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 7, 12:44 AM	0xb39737d4	BUY	0.999	$2,546	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 6, 02:28 PM	0x28928228	BUY	0.999	$5,304	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 6, 07:27 AM	0x9483f136	BUY	0.999	$4,777	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 1, 02:57 PM	0x1e3b8849	BUY	0.999	$3,996	Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 30, 03:19 AM	0x20d1543f	BUY	0.990	$1,015	Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 30, 03:19 AM	0x20d1543f	BUY	0.989	$4,897	Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 30, 02:29 AM	0x8370d278	SELL	0.999	$3,615	— (SELL)
Mar 30, 02:08 AM	0x4cc833ea	BUY	0.990	$4,296	Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 24, 08:26 PM	0xe8add35c	BUY	0.999	$1,435	Above conviction band — net-negative

Markets active in

99 markets · sorted by volume

Market	Category	Trades	Volume	Net BUY
Netherlands leading at halftime?	Crypto	3	$24.2K	+$24.2K
0xedba434f	—	1	$17.8K	+$17.8K
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 22?	Crypto	1	$16.0K	+$16.0K
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 9?	Crypto	2	$13.0K	+$13.0K
Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Politics	3	$13.0K	+$6,973
0x49db0084	—	2	$12.4K	+$12.4K
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 25?	Crypto	1	$12.2K	+$12.2K
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 2?	Crypto	2	$12.0K	$0
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Crypto	1	$11.6K	$-11,562
0xfa2d78b7	—	2	$10.1K	+$10.1K
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 14?	Crypto	1	$9,991	+$9,991
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 21?	Crypto	1	$9,991	+$9,991
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET	Crypto	1	$9,989	+$9,989
0xf402846b	—	1	$9,989	+$9,989
0xd2fcfa85	—	2	$9,928	+$9,928
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	Crypto	1	$9,893	+$9,893
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	Crypto	1	$8,598	+$8,598
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 20?	Crypto	1	$8,516	+$8,516
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 1AM ET	Crypto	1	$8,479	+$8,479
0xf8600f5e	—	2	$8,273	+$8,273
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 23?	Crypto	1	$8,127	+$8,127
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June?	Crypto	1	$8,092	$-8,092
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 18?	Crypto	1	$7,987	+$7,987
0xa5d7400b	—	1	$7,983	+$7,983
0x5f3c0745	—	1	$7,892	+$7,892
Will Bitcoin dip to $67,500 in June?	Crypto	3	$7,488	+$5,091
0xf17e5b20	—	2	$7,130	+$7,130
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 28?	Crypto	1	$6,993	+$6,993
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Crypto	1	$6,480	+$6,480
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 18?	Crypto	1	$6,391	+$6,391

Showing top 30 by volume.