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50ShadesofGrey
Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0xa4fc…977d with our methodology badges per row.
Resolved trades
6
lifetime
PnL per $
+1%
historical realized
Win rate
100.0%
volume-weighted
Volume resolved
$181.0K
across all resolved markets
Wave-34 gate verdict: ✗ fails
The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. 6 resolved trades · 1% PnL/$. Misses the threshold; cheap-band BUYs would surface as Watch tier only.
Trades (90d)
6
Distinct markets
4
Volume (90d)
$181.0K
avg $30.2K / trade
BUY vs SELL
$181.0K / $0
net direction
Recent trades
last 6 · 90d window| When | Market | Side | Price | Size | Methodology |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 10, 12:23 PM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | BUY YES | 0.991 | $6,976 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 10, 12:22 PM | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? | BUY NO | 0.994 | $65.3K | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 10, 12:15 PM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | BUY YES | 0.991 | $96.8K | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 5, 07:53 PM | Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $4.00-$5.00 on the final day of trading of the week of Jun 1 – Jun 5? | BUY YES | 0.999 | $1,639 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 5, 04:06 AM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | BUY YES | 0.983 | $9,236 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 2, 06:10 PM | QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30? | BUY YES | 0.998 | $1,001 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
Markets active in
4 markets · sorted by volume| Market | Category | Trades | Volume | Net BUY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | Finance | 3 | $113.0K | +$113.0K |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? | Finance | 1 | $65.3K | +$65.3K |
| Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $4.00-$5.00 on the final day of trading of the week of Jun 1 – Jun 5? | Other | 1 | $1,639 | +$1,639 |
| QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30? | Other | 1 | $1,001 | +$1,001 |