| Jun 12, 05:24 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.878 | $27.1K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 07:04 PM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | SELL YES | 0.738 | $2,628 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 07:02 PM | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY YES | 0.750 | $2,250 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 9, 03:52 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.920 | $18.4K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 29, 01:32 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.240 | $2,795 | — (SELL) |
| May 29, 01:31 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.561 | $7,784 | — (SELL) |
| May 29, 12:39 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.601 | $1,201 | — (SELL) |
| May 29, 12:38 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.601 | $1,202 | — (SELL) |
| May 29, 12:37 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.609 | $1,217 | — (SELL) |
| May 26, 09:09 AM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.792 | $9,315 | — (SELL) |
| May 26, 03:01 AM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.900 | $6,535 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 26, 03:01 AM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.890 | $8,705 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 04:32 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.648 | $7,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 04:30 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.920 | $10.5K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 04:01 PM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.870 | $2,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 03:56 PM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.866 | $3,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 03:54 PM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.851 | $3,100 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 03:51 PM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.844 | $1,203 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 24, 03:39 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? | BUY YES | 0.250 | $1,004 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 24, 03:29 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 24? | SELL NO | 0.939 | $1,384 | — (SELL) |
| May 24, 05:07 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.700 | $3,477 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 06:58 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.570 | $1,140 | —— |
| May 22, 06:08 AM | OpenAI IPO before 2027? | BUY YES | 0.720 | $1,054 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 20, 01:18 AM | Iran closes its airspace by May 21? | BUY NO | 0.860 | $24.9K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 20, 12:40 AM | Iran closes its airspace by May 21? | BUY NO | 0.860 | $4,300 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 19, 05:30 AM | Iran closes its airspace by May 21? | BUY NO | 0.920 | $14.4K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 19, 05:29 AM | Iran closes its airspace by May 24? | BUY NO | 0.780 | $1,055 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 19, 05:29 AM | Iran closes its airspace by May 21? | BUY NO | 0.910 | $2,951 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 18, 04:15 PM | Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.750 | $1,644 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 11, 04:07 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.956 | $8,413 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 10, 04:55 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.859 | $5,240 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 10, 04:51 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.851 | $1,031 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 10, 04:51 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.910 | $26.8K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 10, 04:51 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.958 | $4,436 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 10, 04:51 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.957 | $1,495 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 15, 08:01 AM | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? | BUY YES | 0.240 | $1,164 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Apr 8, 03:16 AM | US strike on Cuba by December 31? | SELL NO | 0.615 | $11.2K | — (SELL) |
| Apr 5, 01:15 PM | Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? | BUY YES | 0.300 | $1,500 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Apr 2, 12:54 PM | US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? | SELL NO | 0.540 | $4,057 | — (SELL) |
| Mar 30, 05:27 PM | US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | SELL NO | 0.990 | $16.6K | — (SELL) |
| Mar 26, 02:23 PM | US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | BUY NO | 0.570 | $1,821 | —— |
| Mar 26, 02:22 PM | US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | SELL NO | 0.560 | $2,229 | — (SELL) |
| Mar 23, 12:42 PM | 0x773abaa5 | BUY NO | 0.650 | $1,593 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 23, 12:41 PM | 0x773abaa5 | BUY NO | 0.660 | $1,083 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 23, 12:40 PM | 0x773abaa5 | BUY NO | 0.650 | $1,735 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |