LuckyPierrot

Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0x9507…7b04 with our methodology badges per row.

0x95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04·Polymarket profile ↗

Resolved trades

380

lifetime

PnL per $

-8%

historical realized

Win rate

91.3%

volume-weighted

Volume resolved

$4.05M

across all resolved markets

Wave-34 gate verdict: ✗ fails

The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. 380 resolved trades · -8% PnL/$. Misses the threshold; cheap-band BUYs would surface as Watch tier only.

Trades (90d)

200

capped at 200

Distinct markets

122

Volume (90d)

$1.23M

avg $6,143 / trade

BUY vs SELL

$1.05M / $181.0K

net direction

Recent trades

last 200 · 90d window

When	Market	Side	Price	Size	Methodology
Jun 13, 12:03 PM	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	BUY NO	0.938	$32.3K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 13, 12:02 PM	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	BUY NO	0.938	$14.1K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 13, 01:35 AM	President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match?	BUY NO	0.999	$12.4K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 13, 01:07 AM	President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match?	BUY NO	0.997	$1,087	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 13, 12:02 AM	President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match?	BUY NO	0.997	$1,832	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 10:48 PM	President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match?	BUY NO	0.992	$3,379	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 05:08 PM	Will Elon Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?	BUY NO	0.999	$2,429	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 04:56 PM	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	BUY NO	0.977	$3,413	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 04:41 PM	Will Lennart Kahl score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.997	$1,005	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 04:40 PM	Will Fermín López score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.997	$1,021	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 04:35 PM	Will Italy replace Iran in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.999	$6,048	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 04:32 PM	Will Elon Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?	BUY NO	0.999	$2,762	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 04:29 PM	Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by June 30?	BUY YES	0.999	$5,576	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 04:14 PM	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $600B and $700B at market close on IPO day?	BUY NO	0.999	$1,806	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 04:02 PM	Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by June 30?	BUY YES	0.997	$1,721	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 03:52 PM	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $800B and $900B at market close on IPO day?	BUY NO	0.998	$2,082	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 03:50 PM	SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell?	BUY NO	0.999	$8,219	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 03:49 PM	Will SpaceX raise between $40B and $50B in its IPO?	BUY NO	0.999	$3,110	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 03:41 PM	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T?	BUY NO	0.997	$1,994	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 03:30 PM	Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	BUY NO	0.989	$15.2K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 03:29 PM	Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	BUY NO	0.988	$13.1K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 03:18 PM	SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell?	BUY NO	0.999	$5,338	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 02:50 PM	Will Elon Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?	BUY NO	0.995	$4,678	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 02:38 PM	Will Gwynne Shotwell be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?	BUY YES	0.999	$7,700	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 02:20 PM	Will Elon Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?	BUY NO	0.994	$1,413	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 02:03 PM	Will Gwynne Shotwell be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?	BUY YES	0.998	$11.5K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 01:48 PM	SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell?	BUY NO	0.990	$2,687	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 01:35 PM	Will Donald Trump be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?	BUY NO	0.997	$1,437	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 01:11 PM	Will SpaceX fail to complete an initial public offering by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET?	BUY NO	0.999	$7,497	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 01:03 PM	Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in June 2026 (ET)?	BUY YES	0.999	$10.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 12:57 PM	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T?	BUY NO	0.987	$3,119	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 12:46 PM	Will Donald Trump be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?	BUY NO	0.997	$1,854	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 11:12 AM	Will Donald Trump be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?	BUY NO	0.996	$2,404	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 10:37 AM	Will no country replace Iran in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.992	$1,810	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 10:33 AM	Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?	BUY YES	0.999	$8,434	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 02:35 AM	Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker?	BUY YES	0.998	$5,817	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 11:37 PM	Will Olivia Rodrigo release a new original album by June 12?	BUY YES	0.999	$1,998	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 11:36 PM	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 15?	BUY NO	0.993	$6,336	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 11:26 PM	Will Olivia Rodrigo release a new original album by June 12?	BUY YES	0.999	$2,437	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 05:14 PM	Will Olivia Rodrigo release a new original album by August 31?	BUY YES	0.998	$3,586	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 04:51 PM	Will Donald Trump be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?	BUY NO	0.991	$1,168	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 04:46 PM	Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.992	$1,822	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 04:44 PM	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.993	$1,256	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 04:40 PM	Will Pete Hegseth enter Iran by June 30?	BUY NO	0.996	$1,035	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 04:36 PM	Will Olivia Rodrigo release an album in 2026?	BUY YES	0.999	$2,398	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 04:33 PM	Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027?	BUY NO	0.999	$11.4K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 04:30 PM	Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?	BUY YES	0.996	$3,612	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 04:29 PM	Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026?	BUY YES	0.998	$7,186	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 04:29 PM	Will SpaceX IPO by August 31, 2026?	BUY YES	0.998	$7,385	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 04:29 PM	Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?	BUY YES	0.998	$1,996	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 04:29 PM	Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?	BUY YES	0.995	$4,614	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 04:29 PM	Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in June 2026 (ET)?	BUY YES	0.998	$2,780	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 04:28 PM	SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027?	BUY YES	0.999	$1,049	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 04:19 PM	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June?	BUY NO	0.995	$9,768	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 04:19 PM	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June?	BUY NO	0.994	$1,502	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 04:17 PM	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of June?	BUY NO	0.988	$2,757	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 04:06 PM	Will Indonesia recognize Israel by June 30?	BUY NO	0.990	$1,157	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 03:43 PM	Will Italy replace Iran in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.995	$1,192	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 03:32 PM	Will Cape Verde reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	BUY NO	0.996	$1,080	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 03:45 AM	Will Donald Trump be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?	BUY NO	0.990	$1,199	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 03:42 AM	Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker?	BUY YES	0.998	$1,082	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 03:41 AM	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T?	BUY YES	0.990	$3,665	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 02:23 AM	Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027?	BUY NO	0.999	$4,951	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 01:48 AM	Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1540?	BUY NO	0.960	$1,275	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 01:26 AM	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?	BUY NO	0.990	$1,145	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 01:20 AM	Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO day?	BUY YES	0.993	$1,063	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 01:33 PM	Iran Nuke before 2027?	BUY NO	0.908	$1,062	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 01:33 PM	Iran Nuke before 2027?	BUY NO	0.906	$1,356	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 01:03 PM	Will Donald Trump be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?	BUY NO	0.997	$1,063	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 12:23 PM	Will Seattle have between 0.5 and 1 inches of precipitation in June?	BUY NO	0.971	$1,021	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 12:04 PM	Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?	BUY YES	0.987	$1,953	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 08:49 AM	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	BUY NO	0.976	$2,773	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 06:56 AM	Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	BUY NO	0.994	$10.5K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 04:04 AM	Will New Zealand be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup?	BUY NO	0.995	$1,231	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 03:50 AM	Will Cape Verde win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.992	$1,715	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 03:46 AM	Will one Democratic Party candidate and one Republican Party candidate advance to the general election for Governor of California from the June 2, 2026 primary?	BUY YES	0.999	$4,210	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 03:41 AM	Will Tom Steyer finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election?	BUY NO	0.999	$7,853	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 03:29 AM	Will Iraq win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.994	$2,485	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 03:28 AM	Will Curaçao win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.995	$2,488	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 02:10 AM	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30?	BUY NO	0.986	$9,387	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 02:07 AM	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30?	BUY NO	0.984	$2,598	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 01:56 AM	Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 300 (High)?	BUY NO	0.980	$5,306	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 01:53 AM	Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 300 (High)?	BUY NO	0.968	$2,442	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 01:38 AM	Will SpaceX's market cap be between $900B and $1T at market close on IPO day?	BUY NO	0.999	$22.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 01:29 AM	Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day?	BUY NO	0.999	$8,136	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 01:27 AM	SpaceX goes public through Bill Ackman "SPAR" company?	BUY NO	0.999	$6,770	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 01:27 AM	SpaceX goes public through Bill Ackman "SPAR" company?	BUY NO	0.997	$1,262	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 01:21 AM	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T?	BUY NO	0.987	$1,287	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 01:16 AM	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T?	BUY NO	0.996	$4,532	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 01:16 AM	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T?	BUY YES	0.993	$2,043	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 01:14 AM	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T?	BUY YES	0.992	$2,764	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 01:08 AM	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T?	BUY YES	0.990	$8,929	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 01:05 AM	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T?	BUY NO	0.991	$1,333	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 12:10 AM	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T?	BUY NO	0.978	$1,352	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 12:09 AM	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T?	BUY NO	0.988	$5,169	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 12:07 AM	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T?	BUY NO	0.995	$2,587	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 12:07 AM	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T?	BUY NO	0.993	$2,084	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 11:58 PM	Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027?	BUY NO	0.998	$2,021	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 11:57 PM	Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026?	BUY YES	0.997	$5,596	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 11:57 PM	Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026?	BUY YES	0.998	$2,355	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 11:50 PM	Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker?	BUY YES	0.997	$4,541	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 11:50 PM	Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPAX?	BUY NO	0.999	$11.2K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 11:49 PM	Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X?	BUY NO	0.999	$14.3K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 03:52 PM	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026?	BUY YES	0.980	$1,066	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 03:45 PM	Will Databricks not IPO by June 30, 2026?	BUY YES	0.996	$1,574	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 02:51 PM	Will any World Cup game scheduled in the U.S. be relocated abroad?	BUY NO	0.990	$1,336	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 02:00 PM	10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?	BUY NO	0.952	$9,568	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 01:59 PM	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	BUY NO	0.978	$4,890	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 01:14 AM	Will Nithya Raman finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	BUY NO	0.999	$2,043	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 01:08 AM	Will Karen Bass finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	BUY YES	0.998	$2,695	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 12:12 AM	Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.986	$1,413	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 03:31 PM	Will Olivia Rodrigo release an album in 2026?	BUY YES	0.998	$2,543	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 03:30 PM	Peru General Election invalidated by June 30?	BUY NO	0.985	$3,079	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 12:54 PM	Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 52m?	BUY YES	0.992	$1,044	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 11:39 AM	Iran Nuke before 2027?	BUY NO	0.900	$7,120	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 11:38 AM	Exact Score: Bahrain 0 - 0 Syria?	BUY YES	0.999	$1,698	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 10:07 AM	Bahrain vs. Syria: Draw at halftime?	BUY YES	0.994	$3,450	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 08:40 AM	Will Bahrain win on 2026-06-09?	BUY NO	0.996	$8,836	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 08:39 AM	Will Bahrain vs. Syria end in a draw?	BUY YES	0.996	$12.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 08:22 AM	Will Bahrain vs. Syria end in a draw?	BUY YES	0.993	$4,775	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 08:21 AM	Will Bahrain vs. Syria end in a draw?	BUY YES	0.991	$11.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 06:17 AM	Will Bahrain vs. Syria end in a draw?	BUY YES	0.986	$4,530	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 06:16 AM	Will Bahrain win on 2026-06-09?	BUY NO	0.989	$2,085	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 02:43 AM	Will Bahrain vs. Syria end in a draw?	BUY YES	0.998	$5,030	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 01:40 AM	Will Bahrain win on 2026-06-09?	BUY NO	0.990	$1,150	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 01:39 AM	Will Bahrain vs. Syria end in a draw?	BUY YES	0.990	$6,181	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 02:35 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June?	BUY NO	0.962	$1,017	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 02:21 AM	Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPC?	BUY NO	0.999	$1,100	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 02:20 AM	Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPAX?	BUY NO	0.998	$2,081	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 12:14 AM	Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	BUY NO	0.987	$4,935	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 4, 09:19 AM	Will USD reach 18,000 Indonesian rupiah by June 30?	BUY YES	0.999	$3,364	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 4, 01:12 AM	Will Spike Lee attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals?	BUY YES	0.999	$4,995	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 3, 10:55 PM	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	SELL NO	0.996	$99.6K	— (SELL)
Jun 3, 09:32 AM	Will there be fewer than 2 ChatGPT outages in June 2026?	BUY NO	0.997	$2,298	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 2, 11:48 PM	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.992	$3,988	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 2, 01:33 PM	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.991	$4,949	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 2, 12:52 PM	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.993	$23.3K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 2, 12:38 PM	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.994	$19.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 2, 12:24 PM	Will gas hit (Low) $3.50 by May 31?	SELL NO	0.999	$9,329	— (SELL)
Jun 2, 12:17 PM	Netanyahu out by June 30?	SELL NO	0.979	$7,074	— (SELL)
Jun 2, 12:12 PM	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	SELL NO	0.944	$5,178	— (SELL)
Jun 2, 12:09 PM	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	SELL NO	0.990	$4,927	— (SELL)
Jun 2, 11:59 AM	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.991	$1,456	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 2, 10:20 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	SELL NO	0.998	$54.9K	— (SELL)
Jun 2, 07:53 AM	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.994	$22.3K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 2, 12:52 AM	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.994	$13.6K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 2, 12:03 AM	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.994	$53.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 04:25 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	BUY NO	0.999	$50.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 03:31 PM	Will Pepe be included in Portugal's official 2026 World Cup squad list?	BUY NO	0.999	$11.2K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 04:56 AM	Will Lexi Howard die in Euphoria: Season 3?	BUY NO	0.999	$4,206	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 04:56 AM	Will Ethan Daley die in Euphoria: Season 3?	BUY NO	0.999	$1,142	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 02:43 AM	Will Hong Kong have between 210-220mm of precipitation in May?	BUY NO	0.999	$1,011	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 12:16 AM	Will the Ornn H100 Index hit $2.00 (LOW) by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.998	$6,764	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 12:14 AM	Will the Ornn H100 Index hit $3.40 (HIGH) by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.999	$2,198	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 12:14 AM	Will the Ornn H100 Index hit $3.30 (HIGH) by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.999	$2,231	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 11:51 PM	Will the Ornn B200 Index hit $4.50 (LOW) by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.999	$1,520	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 11:51 PM	Will the Ornn B200 Index hit $5.00 (LOW) by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.999	$1,189	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 01:02 AM	Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	BUY NO	0.999	$2,402	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 30, 03:58 PM	Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	BUY NO	0.999	$1,988	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 30, 09:47 AM	Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by May 31?	BUY NO	0.996	$1,693	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 30, 04:25 AM	Will the Ornn H100 Index hit $5.00 (HIGH) by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.999	$1,393	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 30, 04:19 AM	Will the Ornn H200 Index hit $2.50 (LOW) by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.997	$1,158	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 30, 03:43 AM	Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	BUY NO	0.999	$14.4K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 30, 03:43 AM	Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	BUY NO	0.998	$1,418	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 30, 03:41 AM	Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	BUY YES	0.999	$4,790	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 30, 03:40 AM	Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	BUY YES	0.999	$8,373	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 30, 03:17 AM	Will Greece send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.998	$4,546	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 30, 03:13 AM	Will Australia send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.999	$1,916	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 30, 03:09 AM	Will Australia send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.998	$1,724	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 30, 02:59 AM	Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by May 31?	BUY NO	0.998	$1,109	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 30, 02:54 AM	Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by May 31?	BUY NO	0.998	$1,127	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 30, 02:51 AM	Over $4M committed to the Printr public sale?	BUY NO	0.999	$2,748	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 30, 02:48 AM	Will Nate Jacobs die in Euphoria: Season 3?	BUY YES	0.998	$1,939	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 10:57 AM	Netanyahu out by May 31?	BUY NO	0.998	$6,021	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 10:23 AM	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	BUY NO	0.997	$1,475	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 10:23 AM	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	BUY NO	0.996	$5,098	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 10:10 AM	Will Trump meet with Giorgia Meloni in May 2026?	BUY NO	0.998	$1,827	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 09:44 AM	Will Seoul have between 110-120mm of precipitation in May?	BUY NO	0.998	$1,932	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 09:26 AM	Will Nate Jacobs die in Euphoria: Season 3?	BUY YES	0.998	$4,621	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 08:04 AM	Will gas hit (Low) $3.50 by May 31?	BUY NO	0.999	$12.7K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 08:01 AM	Over $15M committed to the Printr public sale?	BUY NO	0.999	$3,040	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 07:58 AM	Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by May 31?	BUY NO	0.998	$1,209	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 03:39 AM	Over $60M committed to the Printr public sale?	BUY NO	0.999	$2,764	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 12:40 AM	Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	BUY NO	0.995	$1,810	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 12:15 AM	Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	BUY NO	0.994	$2,509	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 12:15 AM	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	BUY NO	0.994	$4,970	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 05:09 PM	Over $20M committed to the Printr public sale?	BUY NO	0.999	$3,760	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 05:08 PM	Over $30M committed to the Printr public sale?	BUY NO	0.999	$1,054	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 03:54 AM	Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May?	BUY NO	0.999	$3,012	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 27, 11:40 PM	Over $40M committed to the Printr public sale?	BUY NO	0.999	$1,601	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 27, 11:40 PM	Over $20M committed to the Printr public sale?	BUY NO	0.998	$1,972	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 27, 12:48 PM	Will Seattle have less than 0.5 inches of precipitation in May?	BUY NO	0.999	$1,371	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 27, 03:07 AM	Over $60M committed to the Printr public sale?	BUY NO	0.999	$15.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 02:32 PM	Will the Powerball jackpot hit $1 billion by May 31?	BUY NO	0.998	$1,275	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 02:28 PM	Over $150M committed to the Printr public sale?	BUY NO	0.999	$9,657	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 02:28 PM	Over $100M committed to the Printr public sale?	BUY NO	0.999	$8,616	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 12:23 PM	Over $20M committed to the Printr public sale?	BUY NO	0.998	$12.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 11:39 AM	Over $200M committed to the Printr public sale?	BUY NO	0.999	$9,579	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 11:39 AM	Over $250M committed to the Printr public sale?	BUY NO	0.999	$5,478	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 09:17 AM	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	BUY NO	0.992	$49.6K	Above conviction band — net-negative

Markets active in

122 markets · sorted by volume

Market	Category	Trades	Volume	Net BUY
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Crypto	9	$242.1K	+$42.9K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Tech	2	$104.8K	$-4,940
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Tech	1	$49.6K	+$49.6K
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	Politics	2	$46.4K	+$46.4K
Will Bahrain vs. Syria end in a draw?	Tech	6	$45.2K	+$45.2K
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Politics	4	$43.8K	+$43.8K
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $900B and $1T at market close on IPO day?	Tech	1	$22.8K	+$22.8K
Will gas hit (Low) $3.50 by May 31?	Other	2	$22.0K	+$3,332
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	Finance	4	$20.2K	+$20.2K
Will Gwynne Shotwell be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?	Tech	2	$19.2K	+$19.2K
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match?	Politics	4	$18.7K	+$18.7K
Over $20M committed to the Printr public sale?	Other	3	$18.7K	+$18.7K
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?	Tech	4	$18.6K	+$18.6K
Over $60M committed to the Printr public sale?	Other	2	$17.7K	+$17.7K
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T?	Tech	4	$17.4K	+$17.4K
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell?	Tech	3	$16.2K	+$16.2K
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X?	Tech	1	$14.3K	+$14.3K
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T?	Tech	5	$14.3K	+$14.3K
Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in June 2026 (ET)?	Tech	2	$13.7K	+$13.7K
Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027?	Tech	2	$13.4K	+$13.4K
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPAX?	Tech	2	$13.3K	+$13.3K
Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026?	Tech	2	$12.8K	+$12.8K
Will Bahrain win on 2026-06-09?	Tech	3	$12.1K	+$12.1K
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30?	Tech	2	$12.0K	+$12.0K
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker?	Tech	3	$11.4K	+$11.4K
Will Elon Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?	Tech	4	$11.3K	+$11.3K
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June?	Other	2	$11.3K	+$11.3K
Will Pepe be included in Portugal's official 2026 World Cup squad list?	Other	1	$11.2K	+$11.2K
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	Tech	3	$11.1K	+$11.1K
Over $150M committed to the Printr public sale?	Other	1	$9,657	+$9,657

Showing top 30 by volume.