Dafu0715

Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0x9351…9e4d with our methodology badges per row.

0x93511d72d294f1478739bc38f578bf0306fd9e4d·Polymarket profile ↗

Resolved trades

518

lifetime

PnL per $

-29%

historical realized

Win rate

63.7%

volume-weighted

Volume resolved

$4.87M

across all resolved markets

Wave-34 gate verdict: ✗ fails

The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. 518 resolved trades · -29% PnL/$. Misses the threshold; cheap-band BUYs would surface as Watch tier only.

Trades (90d)

200

capped at 200

Distinct markets

Volume (90d)

$1.36M

avg $6,824 / trade

BUY vs SELL

$940.7K / $424.1K

net direction

Recent trades

last 200 · 90d window

When	Market	Side	Price	Size	Methodology
Jun 13, 04:09 PM	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 15?	BUY NO	0.997	$2,525	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 13, 03:10 PM	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30?	BUY NO	0.985	$2,426	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 13, 02:41 PM	Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.967	$4,526	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 13, 02:41 PM	Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?	BUY YES	0.994	$1,106	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 13, 08:11 AM	Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.976	$9,030	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 13, 07:48 AM	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	BUY NO	0.956	$2,240	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 13, 07:48 AM	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	BUY NO	0.954	$2,345	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 13, 07:43 AM	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?	BUY NO	0.889	$4,825	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 13, 07:42 AM	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?	BUY NO	0.882	$2,107	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 13, 07:42 AM	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?	BUY NO	0.866	$1,816	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 13, 07:41 AM	Will Asia (AFC) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.977	$9,770	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 13, 07:41 AM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.995	$9,950	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 13, 07:25 AM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	BUY NO	0.978	$7,867	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 13, 07:25 AM	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	BUY NO	0.929	$3,489	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 13, 07:24 AM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	BUY NO	0.977	$1,911	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 13, 06:54 AM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	SELL NO	0.803	$1,445	— (SELL)
Jun 13, 06:54 AM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	SELL NO	0.808	$34.1K	— (SELL)
Jun 13, 06:52 AM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	SELL NO	0.821	$13.1K	— (SELL)
Jun 13, 04:40 AM	Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.989	$9,890	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 13, 03:40 AM	Netanyahu out by June 30?	BUY NO	0.989	$9,890	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 13, 03:10 AM	Netanyahu out by June 30?	BUY NO	0.988	$6,097	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 13, 02:40 AM	Netanyahu out by June 30?	BUY NO	0.987	$3,852	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 13, 02:10 AM	Netanyahu out by June 30?	BUY NO	0.986	$1,455	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 13, 02:10 AM	Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.988	$5,918	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 13, 01:40 AM	Netanyahu out by June 30?	BUY NO	0.985	$2,046	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 13, 01:40 AM	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?	BUY NO	0.984	$2,186	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 06:30 PM	Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO day?	BUY YES	0.999	$27.7K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 04:24 PM	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T?	BUY YES	0.998	$2,893	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 04:23 PM	Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day?	BUY NO	0.998	$2,517	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 04:23 PM	Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO day?	BUY YES	0.998	$12.6K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 04:02 PM	Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	BUY NO	0.974	$5,988	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 03:46 PM	Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day?	BUY NO	0.997	$1,994	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 03:46 PM	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T?	BUY NO	0.997	$4,651	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 03:45 PM	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T?	BUY YES	0.997	$7,784	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 03:45 PM	Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day?	BUY NO	0.997	$1,927	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 03:44 PM	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T?	BUY YES	0.996	$3,935	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 03:43 PM	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T?	BUY NO	0.997	$1,994	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 03:23 PM	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T?	BUY NO	0.995	$1,741	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 02:56 PM	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T?	BUY NO	0.996	$16.1K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 02:54 PM	Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026?	SELL YES	0.999	$1,998	— (SELL)
Jun 12, 02:53 PM	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T?	BUY NO	0.996	$11.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 02:53 PM	Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?	SELL YES	0.999	$7,992	— (SELL)
Jun 12, 02:52 PM	Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day?	BUY NO	0.997	$4,881	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 02:51 PM	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T?	BUY YES	0.997	$4,792	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 02:49 PM	Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day?	BUY NO	0.995	$5,621	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 02:49 PM	Will SpaceX IPO by August 31, 2026?	SELL YES	0.999	$18.0K	— (SELL)
Jun 12, 02:46 PM	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T?	BUY NO	0.996	$16.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 02:46 PM	Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO day?	BUY YES	0.997	$7,579	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 02:46 PM	Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026?	SELL YES	0.999	$25.6K	— (SELL)
Jun 12, 02:44 PM	Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO day?	BUY YES	0.996	$2,321	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 02:44 PM	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T?	BUY NO	0.997	$4,643	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 02:43 PM	Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day?	BUY NO	0.997	$8,602	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 02:43 PM	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T?	BUY NO	0.995	$11.7K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 02:43 PM	Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?	SELL YES	0.999	$27.2K	— (SELL)
Jun 12, 02:41 PM	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T?	BUY NO	0.994	$9,987	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 02:40 PM	Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?	SELL YES	0.999	$9,990	— (SELL)
Jun 12, 02:38 PM	Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day?	BUY NO	0.996	$1,094	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 02:38 PM	Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker?	SELL YES	0.999	$1,093	— (SELL)
Jun 12, 05:15 AM	Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	BUY NO	0.985	$1,722	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 01:46 AM	NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?	SELL NO	0.978	$1,627	— (SELL)
Jun 11, 07:10 AM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	BUY NO	0.967	$1,165	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 07:10 AM	Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	BUY NO	0.982	$3,100	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 06:50 AM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	BUY NO	0.967	$6,481	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 06:50 AM	Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	BUY NO	0.982	$9,820	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 06:40 AM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	BUY NO	0.967	$9,670	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 06:40 AM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	BUY NO	0.966	$8,782	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 06:14 AM	Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027?	SELL NO	0.999	$2,783	— (SELL)
Jun 11, 06:10 AM	Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	BUY NO	0.982	$9,820	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 06:10 AM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	BUY NO	0.965	$8,597	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 05:40 AM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	BUY NO	0.966	$9,660	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 05:40 AM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	BUY NO	0.963	$3,615	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 04:40 AM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	BUY NO	0.967	$5,321	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 04:40 AM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	BUY NO	0.965	$5,912	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 04:10 AM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	BUY NO	0.967	$4,848	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 03:40 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	BUY NO	0.983	$3,237	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 03:40 AM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	BUY NO	0.964	$9,640	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 03:40 AM	Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	BUY NO	0.976	$1,074	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 03:10 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	BUY NO	0.982	$1,285	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 03:10 AM	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	BUY NO	0.963	$1,688	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 03:10 AM	Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	BUY NO	0.974	$1,505	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 03:10 AM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	BUY NO	0.966	$6,076	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 02:41 AM	Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day?	BUY NO	0.997	$2,341	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 02:40 AM	Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in June 2026 (ET)?	BUY YES	0.995	$3,261	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 02:40 AM	Netanyahu out by June 30?	BUY NO	0.983	$7,105	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 08:11 AM	Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day?	BUY NO	0.997	$8,765	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 05:41 AM	Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day?	BUY NO	0.996	$3,785	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 04:41 AM	NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.980	$1,405	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 04:41 AM	Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.976	$9,399	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 03:41 AM	Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.976	$9,760	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 03:11 AM	Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.976	$9,760	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 02:41 AM	Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.976	$9,760	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 02:11 AM	Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.976	$9,760	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 02:11 AM	Will Asia (AFC) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.975	$4,917	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 01:41 AM	Will Asia (AFC) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.974	$1,454	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 01:11 AM	Will Asia (AFC) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.973	$3,913	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 12:41 AM	Will Asia (AFC) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.973	$9,730	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 12:11 AM	Will Asia (AFC) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.973	$9,730	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 10, 12:10 AM	Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?	BUY YES	0.996	$5,465	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 08:40 PM	Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?	BUY YES	0.995	$1,891	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 07:10 PM	Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?	BUY YES	0.995	$1,183	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 06:41 PM	Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in June 2026 (ET)?	BUY YES	0.995	$1,191	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 06:11 PM	Will Asia (AFC) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.973	$9,730	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 05:41 PM	Will Asia (AFC) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.973	$9,730	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 10:16 AM	Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	BUY YES	0.950	$57.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 12:41 AM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.991	$9,910	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 12:11 AM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.991	$9,910	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 11:41 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.991	$9,910	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 11:11 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.991	$9,910	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 08:41 PM	Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.973	$6,287	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 07:41 PM	Will Asia (AFC) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.975	$1,725	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 07:41 PM	Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.972	$6,635	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 07:11 PM	Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.971	$1,298	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 06:41 PM	Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.970	$3,116	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 06:11 PM	Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.970	$9,700	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 06:10 PM	Netanyahu out by June 30?	BUY NO	0.980	$1,527	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 06:10 PM	Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.981	$2,336	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 05:40 PM	Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.980	$1,785	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 05:11 PM	Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL NO	0.975	$1,314	— (SELL)
Jun 8, 05:11 PM	Will Asia (AFC) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL NO	0.973	$1,962	— (SELL)
Jun 8, 05:11 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	SELL YES	0.992	$9,920	— (SELL)
Jun 8, 05:11 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.993	$9,930	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 05:11 PM	Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day?	BUY NO	0.997	$1,034	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 05:11 PM	Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day?	BUY NO	0.996	$3,685	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 05:11 PM	Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027?	SELL NO	0.995	$1,341	— (SELL)
Jun 8, 05:10 PM	Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?	BUY YES	0.997	$4,197	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 05:10 PM	Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?	SELL YES	0.996	$8,318	— (SELL)
Jun 8, 05:10 PM	Netanyahu out by June 30?	SELL NO	0.976	$5,633	— (SELL)
Jun 8, 05:10 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	BUY NO	0.984	$9,840	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 05:10 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	SELL NO	0.983	$9,610	— (SELL)
Jun 8, 05:10 PM	Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	BUY NO	0.983	$1,006	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 04:41 PM	Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.978	$6,993	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 04:41 PM	Will Asia (AFC) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.975	$5,330	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 04:41 PM	Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL NO	0.967	$10.9K	— (SELL)
Jun 8, 04:41 PM	Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?	BUY NO	0.994	$1,962	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 04:41 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	SELL YES	0.991	$9,910	— (SELL)
Jun 8, 04:41 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.992	$9,920	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 04:41 PM	Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027?	BUY NO	0.996	$4,332	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 04:40 PM	Netanyahu out by June 30?	SELL NO	0.977	$10.0K	— (SELL)
Jun 8, 04:40 PM	Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026?	SELL NO	0.979	$2,284	— (SELL)
Jun 8, 04:40 PM	Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.981	$2,336	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 04:40 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	BUY NO	0.984	$6,528	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 04:40 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	SELL NO	0.983	$6,449	— (SELL)
Jun 8, 04:40 PM	Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	SELL NO	0.984	$8,843	— (SELL)
Jun 8, 04:40 PM	Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	BUY NO	0.985	$8,930	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 04:11 PM	Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.977	$4,462	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 04:11 PM	Will Asia (AFC) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL NO	0.973	$3,464	— (SELL)
Jun 8, 04:11 PM	Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL NO	0.968	$4,049	— (SELL)
Jun 8, 04:11 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	BUY YES	0.992	$9,920	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 04:11 PM	Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day?	BUY NO	0.997	$7,199	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 04:10 PM	Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026?	SELL YES	0.996	$1,071	— (SELL)
Jun 8, 04:10 PM	Netanyahu out by June 30?	SELL NO	0.978	$2,973	— (SELL)
Jun 8, 04:10 PM	Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026?	SELL NO	0.980	$1,119	— (SELL)
Jun 8, 04:10 PM	Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.982	$2,338	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 04:10 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	SELL NO	0.982	$50.1K	— (SELL)
Jun 8, 04:10 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	BUY NO	0.983	$5,552	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 03:41 PM	Will Asia (AFC) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL NO	0.973	$5,628	— (SELL)
Jun 8, 03:41 PM	Will Asia (AFC) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.975	$3,471	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 03:41 PM	Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL NO	0.969	$16.3K	— (SELL)
Jun 8, 03:41 PM	Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?	SELL NO	0.991	$1,200	— (SELL)
Jun 8, 03:41 PM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	SELL YES	0.990	$59.4K	— (SELL)
Jun 8, 03:41 PM	Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day?	BUY NO	0.996	$6,723	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 03:41 PM	Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027?	BUY NO	0.997	$1,834	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 03:41 PM	Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day?	BUY NO	0.997	$5,975	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 03:41 PM	Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027?	BUY NO	0.997	$4,321	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 03:40 PM	Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026?	SELL YES	0.997	$10.9K	— (SELL)
Jun 8, 03:40 PM	Starmer out by June 15, 2026?	BUY NO	0.994	$1,372	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 03:40 PM	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	SELL NO	0.983	$8,011	— (SELL)
Jun 8, 01:40 PM	Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1?	BUY YES	0.998	$3,251	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 12:10 PM	Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30?	BUY NO	0.980	$8,880	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 8, 10:40 AM	Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026?	BUY NO	0.981	$2,252	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 11:10 PM	Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day?	BUY NO	0.995	$2,866	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 10:10 PM	Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day?	BUY NO	0.995	$2,866	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 09:41 PM	Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO day?	BUY YES	0.995	$4,636	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 05:41 PM	Will Asia (AFC) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.974	$6,264	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 04:47 PM	Will Iran Play in the World Cup?	BUY YES	0.989	$2,392	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 04:46 PM	Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in June 2026 (ET)?	BUY YES	0.994	$1,091	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 02:40 PM	Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day?	BUY NO	0.993	$2,043	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 01:40 PM	Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?	BUY YES	0.993	$5,108	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 12:10 PM	Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?	BUY YES	0.990	$2,234	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 11:26 AM	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	SELL YES	0.992	$9,920	— (SELL)
Jun 7, 11:26 AM	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	SELL NO	0.982	$9,820	— (SELL)
Jun 7, 05:11 AM	Will Iran Play in the World Cup?	BUY YES	0.989	$2,086	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 05:10 AM	Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO day?	BUY YES	0.993	$2,277	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 12:14 AM	Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in June 2026 (ET)?	BUY YES	0.988	$1,152	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 7, 12:10 AM	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T?	BUY YES	0.993	$5,514	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 6, 11:44 PM	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	BUY NO	0.993	$59.6K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 6, 11:40 PM	Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?	BUY YES	0.993	$2,556	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 6, 05:17 PM	Will Iran Play in the World Cup?	BUY YES	0.987	$4,357	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 6, 05:13 PM	Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO day?	BUY YES	0.992	$9,014	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 6, 05:13 PM	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T?	BUY NO	0.991	$2,213	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 6, 05:13 PM	Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?	BUY YES	0.991	$1,686	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 6, 12:10 PM	Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?	BUY YES	0.990	$1,299	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 6, 12:10 PM	Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026?	SELL NO	0.983	$1,789	— (SELL)
Jun 6, 07:41 AM	Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO day?	BUY YES	0.990	$1,461	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 6, 06:17 AM	Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027?	BUY NO	0.990	$1,713	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 6, 06:11 AM	Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY NO	0.973	$4,483	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 6, 02:40 AM	Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?	SELL NO	0.987	$1,387	— (SELL)
Jun 6, 02:11 AM	Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?	SELL NO	0.988	$3,877	— (SELL)
Jun 6, 01:40 AM	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	SELL NO	0.986	$1,710	— (SELL)
Jun 6, 01:20 AM	Will Iran Play in the World Cup?	BUY YES	0.991	$1,134	Above conviction band — net-negative

Markets active in

40 markets · sorted by volume

Market	Category	Trades	Volume	Net BUY
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	Finance	12	$168.5K	$-9,790
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Other	10	$110.4K	$-57,564
Will Asia (AFC) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Other	15	$86.8K	+$64.7K
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	Other	9	$86.5K	$-10,818
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T?	Tech	10	$81.8K	+$81.8K
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?	Tech	13	$79.2K	$-27,925
Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Other	10	$71.7K	+$9,360
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO day?	Tech	8	$67.5K	+$67.5K
Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Other	9	$65.7K	+$63.1K
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	Other	1	$59.6K	+$59.6K
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Politics	1	$57.0K	+$57.0K
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	Other	9	$53.4K	+$53.4K
Netanyahu out by June 30?	Other	10	$50.6K	+$13.3K
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day?	Tech	12	$42.2K	+$42.2K
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026?	Other	10	$32.0K	+$21.7K
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day?	Tech	6	$31.7K	+$31.7K
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	Other	5	$30.4K	+$30.4K
Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026?	Tech	2	$27.6K	$-27,636
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T?	Tech	5	$24.9K	+$24.9K
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	Other	5	$21.4K	+$3,672
Will SpaceX IPO by August 31, 2026?	Tech	1	$18.0K	$-17,974
Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026?	Tech	2	$11.9K	$-11,937
Will Iran Play in the World Cup?	Other	4	$9,970	+$9,970
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30?	Other	1	$8,880	+$8,880
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Politics	3	$8,748	+$8,748
Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027?	Tech	3	$8,445	+$197
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	Politics	3	$8,074	+$8,074
Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027?	Tech	3	$7,879	+$7,879
Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in June 2026 (ET)?	Tech	4	$6,695	+$6,695
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?	Tech	2	$5,264	$-5,264

Showing top 30 by volume.