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failstober

Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0x90ed…b5bc with our methodology badges per row.

0x90ed5bffbffbfc344aa1195572d89719a398b5bc·Polymarket profile ↗
Resolved trades
7
lifetime
PnL per $
-38%
historical realized
Win rate
58.2%
volume-weighted
Volume resolved
$28.9K
across all resolved markets
Wave-34 gate verdict: ✗ fails

The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. 7 resolved trades · -38% PnL/$. Misses the threshold; cheap-band BUYs would surface as Watch tier only.

Trades (90d)
30
Distinct markets
18
Volume (90d)
$94.1K
avg $3,138 / trade
BUY vs SELL
$69.9K / $24.3K
net direction

Recent trades

last 30 · 90d window
WhenMarketSidePriceSizeMethodology
Apr 30, 08:46 PMWill Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?SELL NO0.920$10.1K— (SELL)
Apr 30, 01:09 AMUS x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?BUY NO0.997$11.1KAbove conviction band — net-negative
Apr 18, 04:19 PMWill the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?SELL YES0.460$3,066— (SELL)
Apr 17, 05:29 PMWill the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?SELL YES0.450$3,000— (SELL)
Apr 14, 09:11 PMWill the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?BUY YES0.420$2,319—
Apr 14, 03:22 PMWill the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?BUY YES0.420$1,866—
Apr 14, 03:00 PMWill J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?SELL YES0.392$1,005— (SELL)
Apr 9, 05:10 PMWill Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?BUY YES0.860$2,866Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 9, 04:52 PM0x4c5701bcSELL YES0.998$5,544— (SELL)
Apr 8, 09:13 PMWill Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?BUY YES0.084$4,389Killed band — neutral expectation
Apr 8, 06:32 PMWill Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.028$1,028—
Apr 7, 10:49 PMWill Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?BUY YES0.270$3,507Cheap band — no rep
Apr 7, 10:44 PMWill Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.028$1,260—
Apr 7, 10:40 PMWill England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.114$7,543Killed band — neutral expectation
Apr 3, 04:54 PMUS forces enter Iran by April 30?BUY NO0.130$2,150Killed band — neutral expectation
Apr 3, 04:52 PMWill England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY YES0.116$1,877Killed band — neutral expectation
Apr 3, 04:51 PMWill France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL YES0.130$1,534— (SELL)
Mar 31, 07:10 PMWill Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?BUY YES0.080$2,838Killed band — neutral expectation
Mar 26, 05:53 AM0x14d78b43BUY NO0.890$1,150Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 26, 05:23 AM0x14d78b43BUY NO0.890$2,042Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 25, 11:49 PMWill Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?BUY YES0.849$2,850Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 25, 10:26 PM0xae0bacd8BUY0.560$1,244—
Mar 25, 08:02 PMUS forces enter Iran by April 30?BUY NO0.410$5,274—
Mar 25, 08:01 PMUS forces enter Iran by April 30?BUY NO0.400$1,144Killed band — neutral expectation
Mar 24, 03:38 PM0x44336ee5BUY0.390$1,300Killed band — neutral expectation
Mar 24, 05:31 AMWill J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?BUY YES0.366$1,220Killed band — neutral expectation
Mar 24, 04:40 AM0x8537a983BUY NO0.901$2,537Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 23, 07:02 PM0x96f0f7a2BUY0.630$2,800Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 23, 06:28 PM0x96f0f7a2BUY0.630$3,500Above conviction band — net-negative
Mar 23, 06:28 PM0x96f0f7a2BUY0.630$2,100Above conviction band — net-negative

Markets active in

18 markets · sorted by volume
MarketCategoryTradesVolumeNet BUY
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Other1$11.1K+$11.1K
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?Sports4$10.3K$-1,881
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?Politics1$10.1K$-10,118
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Other2$9,419+$9,419
US forces enter Iran by April 30?Other3$8,568+$8,568
0x96f0f7a2—3$8,399+$8,399
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics2$7,227+$7,227
0x4c5701bc—1$5,544$-5,544
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?Other1$3,507+$3,507
0x14d78b43—2$3,192+$3,192
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?Other1$2,866+$2,866
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?Sports1$2,850+$2,850
0x8537a983—1$2,537+$2,537
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Other2$2,288+$2,288
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics2$2,225+$215
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Other1$1,534$-1,534
0x44336ee5—1$1,300+$1,300
0xae0bacd8—1$1,244+$1,244