theo5

Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0x8a4c…532b with our methodology badges per row.

0x8a4c788f043023b8b28a762216d037e9f148532b·Polymarket profile ↗

Resolved trades

lifetime

PnL per $

+3%

historical realized

Win rate

99.1%

volume-weighted

Volume resolved

$132.8K

across all resolved markets

Wave-34 gate verdict: ✗ fails

The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. 8 resolved trades · 3% PnL/$. Misses the threshold; cheap-band BUYs would surface as Watch tier only.

Trades (90d)

Distinct markets

Volume (90d)

$468.0K

avg $9,177 / trade

BUY vs SELL

$330.6K / $137.4K

net direction

Recent trades

last 51 · 90d window

When	Market	Side	Price	Size	Methodology
Jun 20, 08:26 PM	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	BUY YES	0.823	$4,116	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 20, 06:57 PM	Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw?	BUY NO	0.810	$1,798	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 20, 06:57 PM	Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw?	BUY NO	0.810	$18.3K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 13, 10:09 AM	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	SELL NO	0.938	$14.8K	— (SELL)
Jun 12, 03:54 PM	Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by June 30?	BUY YES	0.992	$9,568	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 03:49 PM	Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by June 30?	BUY YES	0.990	$9,900	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 03:49 PM	Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by June 30?	BUY YES	0.953	$3,382	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 11, 03:04 PM	Trump out as President by June 30?	SELL NO	0.993	$47.1K	— (SELL)
Jun 10, 05:40 PM	Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.053	$1,768	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 10, 05:40 PM	Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.053	$1,942	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 10, 03:40 PM	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?	SELL YES	0.511	$1,878	— (SELL)
Jun 9, 04:54 PM	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026?	BUY YES	0.932	$9,321	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 04:54 PM	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026?	BUY YES	0.900	$4,314	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 04:18 PM	Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?	BUY NO	0.977	$1,954	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 05:03 PM	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31?	SELL YES	0.341	$1,704	— (SELL)
May 28, 07:14 PM	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	SELL NO	0.935	$3,740	— (SELL)
May 28, 07:00 PM	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	SELL YES	0.460	$1,380	— (SELL)
May 28, 06:14 PM	Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026?	BUY YES	0.953	$1,602	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 04:34 PM	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?	SELL YES	0.600	$1,200	— (SELL)
May 26, 04:32 PM	Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	SELL NO	0.950	$13.8K	— (SELL)
May 25, 07:43 AM	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?	SELL YES	0.340	$6,630	— (SELL)
May 24, 08:41 PM	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31?	SELL YES	0.331	$2,054	— (SELL)
May 24, 07:01 PM	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	SELL NO	0.947	$18.9K	— (SELL)
May 24, 06:56 PM	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	BUY YES	0.380	$37.6K	Killed band — neutral expectation
May 24, 06:55 PM	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?	BUY YES	0.510	$40.8K	—
May 23, 10:49 PM	Trump out as President by June 30?	SELL NO	0.987	$14.5K	— (SELL)
May 21, 05:01 PM	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31?	SELL YES	0.393	$1,179	— (SELL)
May 20, 05:07 PM	Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.4T by June 30?	BUY YES	0.970	$1,940	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 20, 05:01 PM	Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.4T by June 30?	BUY YES	0.936	$4,137	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 20, 05:01 PM	Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.4T by June 30?	BUY YES	0.810	$3,645	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 20, 04:56 PM	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?	BUY YES	0.275	$1,373	Cheap band — no rep
May 20, 04:45 PM	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31?	BUY YES	0.178	$1,410	Killed band — neutral expectation
May 19, 06:11 PM	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?	BUY YES	0.100	$1,400	Killed band — neutral expectation
May 19, 06:10 PM	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?	BUY YES	0.120	$1,080	Killed band — neutral expectation
May 19, 06:10 PM	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	BUY YES	0.184	$2,764	Killed band — neutral expectation
May 19, 06:09 PM	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?	BUY YES	0.253	$7,351	Cheap band — no rep
May 19, 05:41 PM	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31?	SELL YES	0.890	$1,559	— (SELL)
May 19, 05:38 PM	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31?	BUY YES	0.177	$6,879	Killed band — neutral expectation
May 19, 04:54 PM	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?	BUY YES	0.500	$1,000	—
May 19, 04:53 PM	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?	BUY YES	0.455	$7,743	—
May 18, 06:47 AM	Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	BUY NO	0.903	$9,030	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 18, 06:46 AM	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	SELL YES	0.650	$1,300	— (SELL)
May 18, 06:44 AM	Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.715	$5,004	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 18, 06:44 AM	Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.712	$2,136	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 18, 06:43 AM	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	SELL YES	0.674	$5,631	— (SELL)
May 14, 12:04 PM	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	BUY YES	0.520	$2,600	—
May 12, 08:39 AM	Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	BUY YES	0.590	$1,180	—
May 12, 08:38 AM	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	BUY YES	0.705	$4,367	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 9, 12:21 PM	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	BUY NO	0.916	$18.3K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 30, 04:21 PM	US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	BUY NO	0.999	$99.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Apr 29, 08:31 PM	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	BUY YES	0.180	$1,044	Killed band — neutral expectation

Markets active in

26 markets · sorted by volume

Market	Category	Trades	Volume	Net BUY
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	Other	1	$99.9K	+$99.9K
Trump out as President by June 30?	Politics	2	$61.6K	$-61,605
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?	Other	3	$49.3K	+$46.9K
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	Other	3	$41.8K	+$39.0K
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Other	2	$37.3K	$-613
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw?	Other	2	$20.1K	+$20.1K
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by June 30?	Tech	2	$19.5K	+$19.5K
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	Politics	2	$18.6K	$-18,552
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Other	5	$18.0K	+$4,152
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	Politics	1	$13.8K	$-13,801
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31?	Tech	4	$11.3K	+$2,436
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.4T by June 30?	Tech	3	$9,722	+$9,722
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026?	Other	1	$9,321	+$9,321
Starmer out by May 19, 2026?	Other	1	$9,030	+$9,030
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?	Tech	2	$8,743	+$8,743
Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	Other	3	$8,320	+$8,320
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?	Other	2	$7,710	$-5,550
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026?	Other	1	$4,314	+$4,314
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Other	2	$3,710	+$3,710
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31?	Tech	2	$3,464	$-644
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by June 30?	Tech	1	$3,382	+$3,382
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?	Tech	2	$3,251	$-506
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?	Other	1	$1,954	+$1,954
Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026?	Tech	1	$1,602	+$1,602
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?	Other	1	$1,400	+$1,400
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	Other	1	$1,044	+$1,044