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expectless
Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0x78c6…4710 with our methodology badges per row.
Resolved trades
—
no rep computed yet
PnL per $
—
historical realized
Win rate
—
volume-weighted
Volume resolved
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across all resolved markets
Wave-34 gate verdict: ✗ fails
The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. No reputation snapshot yet — wallet is new or hasn't traded enough resolved markets.
Trades (90d)
4
Distinct markets
3
Volume (90d)
$107.2K
avg $26.8K / trade
BUY vs SELL
$107.2K / $0
net direction
Recent trades
last 4 · 90d window| When | Market | Side | Price | Size | Methodology |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 21, 12:27 AM | Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? | BUY YES | 0.680 | $20.2K | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 14, 12:15 PM | Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY NO | 0.994 | $44.7K | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 20, 11:55 AM | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? | BUY NO | 0.999 | $2,498 | Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 4, 03:21 PM | Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY NO | 0.995 | $39.8K | Above conviction band — net-negative |
Markets active in
3 markets · sorted by volume| Market | Category | Trades | Volume | Net BUY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Politics | 2 | $84.5K | +$84.5K |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? | Other | 1 | $20.2K | +$20.2K |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? | Finance | 1 | $2,498 | +$2,498 |