HorribleWork

Last 90 days of Polymarket trades by 0x7804…7025 with our methodology badges per row.

0x78048aa26ac1967566b8ed11910b529e5f2d7025·Polymarket profile ↗

Resolved trades

287

lifetime

PnL per $

-36%

historical realized

Win rate

62.4%

volume-weighted

Volume resolved

$2.81M

across all resolved markets

Wave-34 gate verdict: ✗ fails

The live cheap_conviction detector only fires on wallets with at least 10 resolved trades AND historical PnL/$ ≥ +5%. 287 resolved trades · -36% PnL/$. Misses the threshold; cheap-band BUYs would surface as Watch tier only.

Trades (90d)

200

capped at 200

Distinct markets

Volume (90d)

$1.84M

avg $9,204 / trade

BUY vs SELL

$956.1K / $884.7K

net direction

Recent trades

last 200 · 90d window

When	Market	Side	Price	Size	Methodology
Jun 12, 11:09 AM	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T?	BUY NO	0.989	$9,914	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 10:12 AM	Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be at least $250?	BUY NO	0.991	$9,786	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 10:00 AM	Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be at least $250?	BUY NO	0.989	$29.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 09:44 AM	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T?	BUY YES	0.992	$3,270	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 09:39 AM	SpaceX IPO: Open Price above IPO Price?	BUY YES	0.969	$1,458	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 09:37 AM	Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be at least $250?	BUY NO	0.989	$2,876	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 08:00 AM	Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be at least $250?	BUY NO	0.988	$2,845	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 05:47 AM	Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be less than $100?	BUY NO	0.992	$21.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 12, 04:53 AM	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.161	$3,220	Killed band — neutral expectation
Jun 11, 12:45 PM	Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.041	$1,203	—
Jun 11, 02:27 AM	Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY YES	0.041	$2,349	—
Jun 11, 01:39 AM	Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	SELL NO	0.500	$4,754	— (SELL)
Jun 9, 07:11 AM	Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	BUY YES	0.930	$9,300	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 9, 02:49 AM	Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker?	SELL YES	0.995	$2,383	— (SELL)
Jun 7, 12:00 AM	Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	BUY NO	0.975	$24.6K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 5, 07:59 PM	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $735 Week of June 1 2026?	BUY NO	0.999	$28.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 5, 07:56 PM	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 Week of June 1 2026?	BUY NO	0.999	$2,770	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 5, 07:52 PM	Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?	SELL YES	0.997	$24.9K	— (SELL)
Jun 5, 07:50 PM	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $735 Week of June 1 2026?	BUY NO	0.930	$7,128	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 5, 07:48 PM	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $725 Week of June 1 2026?	BUY NO	0.999	$1,064	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 5, 07:47 PM	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 Week of June 1 2026?	BUY NO	0.990	$16.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 5, 07:46 PM	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 Week of June 1 2026?	BUY NO	0.982	$4,703	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 5, 07:45 PM	Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?	SELL YES	0.997	$29.9K	— (SELL)
Jun 5, 07:45 PM	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 Week of June 1 2026?	BUY NO	0.970	$3,717	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 5, 07:41 PM	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $725 Week of June 1 2026?	BUY NO	0.995	$24.4K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 5, 07:40 PM	Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?	SELL YES	0.997	$24.9K	— (SELL)
Jun 5, 07:38 PM	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $725 Week of June 1 2026?	BUY NO	0.990	$22.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 5, 07:37 PM	Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?	SELL YES	0.997	$19.9K	— (SELL)
Jun 5, 07:21 PM	Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?	SELL YES	0.997	$9,970	— (SELL)
Jun 5, 07:20 PM	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 Week of June 1 2026?	BUY NO	0.790	$5,871	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 5, 07:06 PM	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $725 Week of June 1 2026?	BUY NO	0.965	$14.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 5, 07:04 PM	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 Week of June 1 2026?	BUY NO	0.900	$3,618	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 5, 11:45 AM	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $735 Week of June 1 2026?	BUY NO	0.970	$1,841	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 5, 11:44 AM	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 Week of June 1 2026?	BUY NO	0.985	$5,220	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 5, 05:01 AM	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $775 on June 5?	BUY NO	0.999	$1,025	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 5, 01:44 AM	Will "The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 8m?	BUY NO	0.998	$1,056	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 4, 03:49 PM	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 Week of June 1 2026?	BUY NO	0.970	$6,847	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 4, 03:49 PM	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $735 Week of June 1 2026?	BUY NO	0.948	$2,005	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 4, 06:49 AM	Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker?	BUY YES	0.979	$2,344	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 4, 06:18 AM	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 Week of June 1 2026?	BUY NO	0.912	$4,782	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 4, 06:17 AM	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $725 Week of June 1 2026?	BUY NO	0.960	$3,219	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 4, 02:46 AM	Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?	BUY YES	0.997	$4,536	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 4, 02:21 AM	Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	BUY YES	0.619	$1,083	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 4, 02:01 AM	Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	BUY NO	0.634	$1,586	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 4, 02:01 AM	Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	BUY NO	0.649	$1,622	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 4, 02:01 AM	Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	BUY NO	0.630	$1,575	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 4, 02:01 AM	Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	BUY NO	0.630	$1,575	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 4, 01:44 AM	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $785 Week of June 1 2026?	BUY NO	0.999	$2,997	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 4, 01:32 AM	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $790 Week of June 1 2026?	BUY NO	0.999	$5,923	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 4, 01:32 AM	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $785 Week of June 1 2026?	BUY NO	0.999	$1,917	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 2, 10:34 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	SELL NO	0.964	$17.3K	— (SELL)
Jun 2, 10:30 AM	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.990	$1,585	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 09:39 PM	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?	SELL YES	0.999	$50.0K	— (SELL)
Jun 1, 09:36 PM	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?	SELL YES	0.999	$50.0K	— (SELL)
Jun 1, 09:25 PM	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by June 30?	SELL YES	0.999	$14.1K	— (SELL)
Jun 1, 05:00 PM	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	BUY NO	0.970	$1,965	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 04:59 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	SELL NO	0.998	$25.4K	— (SELL)
Jun 1, 03:38 PM	Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	BUY YES	0.220	$3,296	Cheap band — no rep
Jun 1, 01:48 PM	Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	BUY YES	0.220	$1,207	Cheap band — no rep
Jun 1, 01:45 PM	Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	BUY YES	0.220	$1,385	Cheap band — no rep
Jun 1, 06:18 AM	Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	BUY YES	0.220	$2,413	Cheap band — no rep
Jun 1, 05:45 AM	Will Spencer Pratt finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	BUY YES	0.250	$1,250	Cheap band — no rep
Jun 1, 03:04 AM	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $790 Week of June 1 2026?	BUY NO	0.990	$1,999	Above conviction band — net-negative
Jun 1, 02:20 AM	Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	BUY YES	0.220	$1,641	Cheap band — no rep
May 31, 09:41 PM	Over $3M committed to the Printr public sale?	SELL NO	0.999	$2,436	— (SELL)
May 31, 09:29 PM	Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	SELL NO	0.998	$4,579	— (SELL)
May 31, 09:29 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	SELL NO	0.998	$37.9K	— (SELL)
May 31, 09:20 PM	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?	BUY YES	0.990	$2,668	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 07:27 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	SELL NO	0.999	$59.9K	— (SELL)
May 31, 07:13 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	SELL NO	0.999	$50.0K	— (SELL)
May 31, 06:16 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May?	SELL NO	0.999	$1,483	— (SELL)
May 31, 06:16 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?	SELL NO	0.999	$5,554	— (SELL)
May 31, 06:06 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	SELL NO	0.999	$50.0K	— (SELL)
May 31, 06:04 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?	SELL NO	0.999	$20.3K	— (SELL)
May 31, 05:52 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	SELL NO	0.999	$50.0K	— (SELL)
May 31, 05:48 PM	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?	BUY YES	0.998	$40.3K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 05:48 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	SELL NO	0.999	$45.0K	— (SELL)
May 31, 05:46 PM	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by June 30?	BUY YES	0.998	$11.5K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 05:46 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	SELL NO	0.999	$15.0K	— (SELL)
May 31, 05:45 PM	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?	BUY YES	0.998	$22.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 05:42 PM	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by June 30?	BUY YES	0.993	$2,230	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 05:41 PM	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?	BUY YES	0.991	$11.3K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 07:37 AM	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?	BUY YES	0.984	$3,085	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 07:36 AM	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?	BUY YES	0.977	$1,716	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 07:35 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	SELL NO	0.999	$30.0K	— (SELL)
May 31, 05:25 AM	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?	BUY YES	0.990	$4,590	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 04:28 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	SELL NO	0.999	$9,990	— (SELL)
May 31, 04:16 AM	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?	BUY YES	0.984	$1,178	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 04:04 AM	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?	BUY YES	0.967	$5,408	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 31, 04:04 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	SELL NO	0.999	$9,990	— (SELL)
May 31, 04:04 AM	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?	BUY YES	0.968	$5,130	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 30, 04:35 AM	Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	BUY YES	0.210	$1,163	Cheap band — no rep
May 30, 02:14 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	BUY NO	0.999	$15.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 30, 12:51 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	BUY NO	0.996	$19.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 30, 12:45 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	BUY NO	0.995	$15.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 30, 12:42 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	BUY NO	0.995	$14.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 30, 12:41 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?	SELL NO	0.998	$15.0K	— (SELL)
May 29, 11:40 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	BUY NO	0.993	$1,689	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 11:16 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?	SELL NO	0.999	$3,576	— (SELL)
May 29, 11:16 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?	SELL NO	0.999	$1,364	— (SELL)
May 29, 11:16 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	SELL NO	0.999	$2,273	— (SELL)
May 29, 10:21 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	BUY NO	0.993	$9,933	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 10:01 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	BUY NO	0.994	$20.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 09:58 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?	SELL NO	0.999	$35.0K	— (SELL)
May 29, 09:50 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	SELL NO	0.998	$2,495	— (SELL)
May 29, 09:43 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	BUY NO	0.995	$1,885	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 09:42 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	SELL NO	0.998	$3,576	— (SELL)
May 29, 09:28 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	BUY NO	0.997	$27.7K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 09:26 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	BUY NO	0.995	$2,189	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 09:21 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	BUY NO	0.993	$3,575	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 09:21 PM	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	SELL YES	0.998	$68.1K	— (SELL)
May 29, 09:02 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	BUY NO	0.990	$10.6K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 09:01 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	SELL NO	0.997	$10.6K	— (SELL)
May 29, 08:58 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	BUY NO	0.983	$9,837	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 08:58 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	SELL NO	0.994	$9,940	— (SELL)
May 29, 08:57 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	BUY NO	0.980	$8,141	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 08:57 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?	SELL NO	0.998	$7,086	— (SELL)
May 29, 08:52 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	BUY NO	0.960	$1,887	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 08:44 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	BUY NO	0.960	$1,198	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 08:43 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	SELL NO	0.999	$3,413	— (SELL)
May 29, 08:37 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	BUY NO	0.960	$4,800	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 08:27 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	BUY NO	0.950	$6,776	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 08:14 PM	Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $450 in May?	SELL YES	0.502	$2,510	— (SELL)
May 29, 07:54 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?	BUY NO	0.989	$13.8K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 07:51 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	SELL NO	0.999	$20.0K	— (SELL)
May 29, 07:50 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?	BUY NO	0.988	$11.1K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 07:32 PM	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in May?	BUY NO	0.999	$1,049	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 06:58 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	BUY NO	0.885	$7,080	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 06:47 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	BUY NO	0.870	$4,264	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 01:34 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	BUY NO	0.910	$1,802	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 04:04 AM	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 in May?	BUY NO	0.998	$1,177	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 29, 12:24 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	BUY NO	0.990	$9,403	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 11:44 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?	BUY NO	0.970	$9,712	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 09:53 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?	BUY NO	0.998	$49.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 09:53 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	BUY NO	0.999	$27.9K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 09:53 PM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	BUY NO	0.999	$42.3K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 09:37 PM	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $240 in May?	BUY NO	0.995	$2,091	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 09:37 PM	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $248 in May?	BUY NO	0.999	$5,883	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 09:37 PM	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $256 in May?	BUY NO	0.999	$1,146	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 09:20 PM	Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $480 in May?	BUY NO	0.999	$1,328	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 09:11 PM	Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $304 in May?	BUY NO	0.999	$2,823	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 09:00 PM	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 in May?	BUY NO	0.999	$2,206	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 28, 10:48 AM	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $790 in May?	BUY NO	0.999	$1,451	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 27, 11:51 PM	Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	BUY NO	0.999	$1,081	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 27, 11:31 PM	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $440 in May?	BUY NO	0.999	$3,904	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 27, 12:10 AM	Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	BUY YES	0.999	$19.0K	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 07:28 PM	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in May?	BUY NO	0.960	$1,091	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 26, 12:58 AM	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	SELL NO	0.996	$4,978	— (SELL)
May 25, 10:56 PM	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	BUY NO	0.990	$2,475	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 04:11 PM	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	BUY NO	0.987	$8,157	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 09:07 AM	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	BUY NO	0.979	$4,895	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 25, 07:50 AM	Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	SELL NO	0.995	$20.9K	— (SELL)
May 25, 06:13 AM	Will Trump say "250" or "250th" during events in Rockland County?	SELL NO	0.999	$8,492	— (SELL)
May 25, 12:34 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	BUY NO	0.548	$1,371	—
May 25, 12:33 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	BUY NO	0.547	$1,367	—
May 25, 12:24 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	BUY NO	0.540	$1,350	—
May 24, 11:52 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	BUY NO	0.540	$1,350	—
May 24, 11:52 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	BUY NO	0.540	$1,350	—
May 24, 08:30 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	BUY NO	0.850	$3,933	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 24, 07:11 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	BUY NO	0.870	$3,481	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 24, 06:54 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	BUY NO	0.886	$4,428	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 24, 06:53 AM	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	BUY YES	0.235	$1,089	Cheap band — no rep
May 24, 05:56 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	BUY NO	0.872	$1,265	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 24, 04:44 AM	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 in May?	BUY NO	0.850	$4,456	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 24, 02:25 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	BUY NO	0.900	$1,265	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 24, 01:41 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	BUY NO	0.884	$3,886	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 24, 01:38 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	BUY NO	0.852	$4,260	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 24, 01:30 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	BUY NO	0.854	$1,798	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 24, 01:17 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	BUY NO	0.855	$1,575	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 24, 12:35 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	BUY NO	0.847	$5,795	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 24, 12:23 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	BUY NO	0.846	$1,336	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 24, 12:18 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	BUY NO	0.845	$1,268	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 24, 12:15 AM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	BUY NO	0.844	$1,807	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 11:47 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	BUY NO	0.846	$1,265	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 11:42 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	BUY NO	0.839	$2,025	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 11:16 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	BUY NO	0.845	$1,267	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 11:08 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	BUY NO	0.842	$2,105	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 11:01 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	BUY NO	0.838	$4,190	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 11:01 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	BUY NO	0.840	$6,052	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 10:50 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	BUY NO	0.844	$1,995	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 10:47 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	BUY NO	0.839	$2,058	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 10:46 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	BUY NO	0.840	$1,338	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 10:43 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	BUY NO	0.837	$2,092	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 10:36 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	BUY NO	0.818	$2,044	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 09:51 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	BUY NO	0.815	$1,949	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 09:50 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	BUY NO	0.814	$2,035	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 09:48 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	BUY NO	0.810	$1,620	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 09:47 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	BUY NO	0.810	$2,025	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 09:28 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	BUY NO	0.833	$1,666	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 09:06 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	BUY NO	0.804	$1,608	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 09:00 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	BUY NO	0.826	$1,817	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 08:57 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	BUY NO	0.833	$1,858	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 08:37 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	BUY NO	0.800	$1,284	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 07:50 PM	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in May?	BUY NO	0.950	$2,765	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 07:50 PM	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in May?	BUY NO	0.920	$1,577	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 07:48 PM	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 in May?	BUY YES	0.650	$1,318	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 07:13 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	BUY NO	0.879	$2,197	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 07:01 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	BUY NO	0.875	$1,538	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 06:39 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	BUY NO	0.885	$2,212	Above conviction band — net-negative
May 23, 06:33 PM	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	BUY NO	0.887	$1,624	Above conviction band — net-negative

Markets active in

60 markets · sorted by volume

Market	Category	Trades	Volume	Net BUY
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	Other	27	$495.6K	$-143,701
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?	Other	12	$198.1K	$-1,711
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Tech	40	$159.3K	+$12.7K
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?	Other	6	$114.2K	$-105,135
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?	Other	4	$93.3K	+$6,490
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	Other	7	$86.9K	+$53.4K
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?	Other	5	$69.9K	$-719
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Other	1	$68.1K	$-68,136
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $725 Week of June 1 2026?	Finance	5	$65.5K	+$65.5K
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 Week of June 1 2026?	Finance	9	$54.4K	+$54.4K
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be at least $250?	Tech	4	$45.4K	+$45.4K
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $735 Week of June 1 2026?	Finance	4	$39.7K	+$39.7K
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Politics	7	$35.7K	+$35.7K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	Tech	4	$30.4K	$-4,124
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by June 30?	Other	3	$27.9K	$-383
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be less than $100?	Tech	1	$21.8K	+$21.8K
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Sports	1	$20.9K	$-20,851
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	Other	1	$20.0K	$-20,012
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	Other	2	$20.0K	$-1,166
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	Politics	1	$19.0K	+$19.0K
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Tech	3	$15.5K	+$15.5K
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T?	Tech	1	$9,914	+$9,914
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Politics	1	$9,300	+$9,300
Will Trump say "250" or "250th" during events in Rockland County?	Politics	1	$8,492	$-8,491
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $790 Week of June 1 2026?	Finance	2	$7,922	+$7,922
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Tech	5	$6,788	+$6,788
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Politics	4	$6,358	+$6,358
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $248 in May?	Other	1	$5,883	+$5,883
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?	Other	1	$5,554	$-5,554
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $785 Week of June 1 2026?	Finance	2	$4,914	+$4,914

Showing top 30 by volume.