| Jun 12, 03:40 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.570 | $2,619 | —— |
| Jun 12, 12:18 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.510 | $5,764 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 12, 12:08 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.520 | $1,530 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 12, 12:06 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.531 | $3,183 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 12, 11:22 AM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.540 | $3,240 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 07:49 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.640 | $2,560 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 07:48 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.600 | $2,749 | —— |
| Jun 11, 07:48 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.590 | $1,475 | —— |
| Jun 11, 07:42 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.579 | $4,119 | —— |
| Jun 11, 04:43 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.820 | $6,560 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 02:45 AM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.860 | $6,640 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 02:42 AM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.850 | $4,288 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 02:41 AM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.840 | $1,135 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 10, 01:01 AM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.810 | $1,620 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 9, 09:41 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.820 | $1,049 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 9, 02:35 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.910 | $4,550 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 9, 02:34 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.770 | $6,160 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 9, 02:30 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.780 | $5,460 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 9, 02:29 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.910 | $4,550 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 9, 02:25 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.780 | $1,671 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 9, 10:20 AM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.810 | $3,234 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 9, 08:58 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.840 | $1,207 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 9, 07:14 AM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.820 | $1,422 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 9, 02:27 AM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.820 | $10.3K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 8, 02:07 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.810 | $6,480 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 8, 02:02 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.800 | $1,005 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 8, 02:01 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.800 | $2,065 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 8, 12:26 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.790 | $3,461 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 8, 06:15 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.950 | $10.3K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 8, 06:06 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.950 | $9,500 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 8, 02:31 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.940 | $16.4K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 7, 11:59 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.920 | $21.5K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 7, 11:56 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.998 | $37.9K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 5, 08:38 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.890 | $36.7K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 5, 11:59 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.880 | $7,011 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 4, 07:55 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? | BUY NO | 0.967 | $18.1K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 4, 07:22 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? | BUY NO | 0.965 | $8,868 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 4, 09:05 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.750 | $6,717 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 4, 08:13 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.956 | $4,284 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 4, 06:18 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.955 | $26.7K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 4, 04:38 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.954 | $15.7K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 4, 04:24 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? | SELL NO | 0.965 | $39.1K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 4, 04:22 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.953 | $7,624 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 4, 04:16 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.954 | $15.3K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 4, 04:15 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.954 | $19.1K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 4, 04:10 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.600 | $2,861 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 4, 04:08 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.610 | $6,299 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 2, 10:53 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.870 | $1,282 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 2, 09:35 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.870 | $9,159 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 2, 04:54 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.850 | $2,214 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 03:21 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.930 | $20.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 03:20 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.998 | $20.0K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 1, 03:16 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.930 | $18.4K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 31, 09:14 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.994 | $4,244 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 30, 09:23 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.977 | $8,968 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 30, 08:53 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.976 | $20.5K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 30, 04:38 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.978 | $20.6K | — (SELL) |
| May 30, 10:18 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.960 | $26.9K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 30, 02:10 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.950 | $19.2K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 30, 01:58 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.950 | $32.3K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 29, 08:28 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.940 | $33.8K | — (SELL) |
| May 29, 07:06 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.920 | $46.0K | — (SELL) |
| May 29, 07:04 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.910 | $21.8K | — (SELL) |
| May 29, 06:52 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.910 | $21.0K | — (SELL) |
| May 29, 06:50 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.910 | $45.5K | — (SELL) |
| May 29, 03:36 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.840 | $16.8K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 29, 03:36 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.840 | $16.8K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 29, 01:33 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.910 | $18.2K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 29, 12:38 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.910 | $18.2K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 29, 12:36 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.910 | $18.2K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 29, 07:33 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.900 | $25.2K | — (SELL) |
| May 29, 07:24 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.900 | $19.8K | — (SELL) |
| May 29, 06:26 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.910 | $13.7K | — (SELL) |
| May 28, 02:43 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.870 | $28.7K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 28, 01:18 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.810 | $3,733 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 28, 12:08 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.930 | $35.3K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 28, 05:27 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.930 | $18.6K | — (SELL) |
| May 28, 05:24 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.930 | $18.6K | — (SELL) |
| May 27, 11:21 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.870 | $6,409 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 27, 08:58 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.690 | $4,933 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 27, 08:09 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.840 | $9,447 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 27, 03:50 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.780 | $14.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 27, 12:15 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.800 | $13.6K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 26, 08:29 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.980 | $3,888 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 26, 08:28 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.979 | $1,814 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 26, 01:56 PM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? | SELL NO | 0.984 | $5,731 | — (SELL) |
| May 26, 01:15 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.950 | $15.3K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 26, 11:40 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.940 | $16.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 26, 11:40 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.700 | $8,793 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 26, 11:37 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.940 | $23.4K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 26, 06:02 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.940 | $65.8K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 12:32 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.920 | $15.6K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 12:10 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.920 | $18.4K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 12:02 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.780 | $15.6K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 24, 10:31 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.760 | $4,484 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 24, 10:31 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.750 | $1,854 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 24, 09:45 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.920 | $56.7K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 24, 09:45 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.910 | $11.6K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 24, 09:17 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.731 | $43.8K | — (SELL) |
| May 24, 09:16 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.731 | $46.8K | — (SELL) |
| May 24, 09:11 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.740 | $7,598 | — (SELL) |
| May 24, 09:08 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.900 | $8,112 | — (SELL) |
| May 24, 09:07 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.750 | $7,933 | — (SELL) |
| May 24, 09:06 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.760 | $7,214 | — (SELL) |
| May 24, 01:45 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.600 | $2,717 | —— |
| May 24, 01:45 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.590 | $2,634 | —— |
| May 24, 09:11 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.705 | $7,046 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 03:51 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.660 | $5,476 | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 03:31 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.740 | $6,490 | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 03:27 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.762 | $7,618 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 03:16 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.720 | $7,770 | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 03:12 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | SELL NO | 0.912 | $11.3K | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 03:11 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.751 | $1,376 | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 03:11 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.802 | $25.2K | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 03:08 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.720 | $8,640 | — (SELL) |
| May 22, 07:22 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.850 | $18.5K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 22, 07:07 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.850 | $6,203 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 22, 07:05 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.810 | $5,877 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 22, 07:04 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.800 | $8,024 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 22, 12:55 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.720 | $5,128 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 22, 10:30 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.960 | $14.2K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 22, 10:29 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.959 | $1,232 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 21, 09:07 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.910 | $3,397 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 21, 01:15 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.850 | $13.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 21, 02:18 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.810 | $15.6K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 20, 03:59 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.850 | $7,750 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 20, 12:54 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.900 | $14.1K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 19, 05:04 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.860 | $10.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 13, 10:50 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.870 | $3,532 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 12, 01:06 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.830 | $1,296 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 9, 02:46 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.930 | $1,651 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 9, 07:18 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.710 | $2,609 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 9, 07:13 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.920 | $3,242 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 9, 12:32 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.940 | $6,108 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 8, 04:13 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.660 | $1,565 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 8, 03:54 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.860 | $7,036 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 7, 10:29 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.680 | $20.5K | — (SELL) |
| May 6, 12:14 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.820 | $1,130 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 4, 09:14 PM | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.066 | $1,166 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 2, 10:53 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.960 | $1,278 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 30, 06:55 PM | Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? | SELL NO | 0.996 | $1,602 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 28, 03:35 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.910 | $4,640 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |