| Jun 20, 08:45 PM | Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.053 | $1,265 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 13, 01:53 AM | 0xfcc93de8 | BUY YES | 0.980 | $1,455 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 13, 12:27 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.171 | $6,073 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 08:07 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.174 | $12.4K | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 11, 07:24 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.842 | $32.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 07:12 PM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.160 | $1,388 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 11, 05:44 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY YES | 0.150 | $1,444 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 10, 10:12 PM | Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.942 | $8,414 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 10, 10:11 PM | Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? | BUY NO | 0.798 | $1,381 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 8, 11:16 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.680 | $8,066 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 8, 10:59 PM | Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? | BUY YES | 0.428 | $3,298 | —— |
| Jun 8, 09:52 PM | Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | BUY YES | 0.890 | $5,096 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 8, 06:26 PM | Will Neymar play in the World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.903 | $28.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 12:19 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.180 | $1,483 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 1, 12:16 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.172 | $1,819 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 1, 12:02 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.550 | $3,597 | —— |
| Jun 1, 12:01 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.562 | $1,210 | —— |
| Jun 1, 12:01 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.600 | $9,375 | —— |
| Jun 1, 02:54 AM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.742 | $3,011 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 31, 09:36 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.692 | $68.5K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 31, 01:07 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.890 | $13.2K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 31, 01:06 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.810 | $3,524 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 29, 11:00 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.286 | $3,477 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 29, 06:48 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.120 | $2,462 | — (SELL) |
| May 29, 06:08 PM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.520 | $5,204 | —— |
| May 29, 04:23 PM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.240 | $1,612 | — (SELL) |
| May 29, 03:13 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.140 | $10.7K | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 29, 03:08 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.120 | $1,257 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 29, 02:56 PM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.294 | $1,612 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 29, 05:02 AM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.550 | $9,234 | —— |
| May 29, 04:13 AM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.700 | $3,564 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 28, 06:19 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.610 | $2,078 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 28, 04:32 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.140 | $2,037 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 28, 04:17 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? | BUY YES | 0.120 | $5,742 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 28, 03:47 PM | 0x5b4be999 | BUY YES | 0.800 | $5,694 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 28, 03:02 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.110 | $1,135 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 28, 02:26 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | BUY YES | 0.300 | $1,592 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 28, 02:13 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | BUY YES | 0.182 | $3,193 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 28, 02:13 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? | BUY YES | 0.114 | $1,266 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 28, 02:13 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? | BUY YES | 0.031 | $1,117 | —— |
| May 28, 12:03 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.080 | $1,295 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 27, 10:40 PM | Will Neymar play in the World Cup? | BUY NO | 0.141 | $1,188 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 27, 10:01 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.700 | $1,240 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 27, 09:55 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.150 | $5,360 | — (SELL) |
| May 27, 05:53 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.140 | $3,939 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 27, 04:23 PM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.233 | $1,344 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 27, 04:06 PM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.690 | $1,769 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 27, 04:05 PM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.660 | $1,346 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 27, 03:41 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | BUY YES | 0.506 | $3,108 | —— |
| May 27, 03:02 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.200 | $2,664 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 27, 03:00 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.550 | $1,684 | —— |
| May 27, 02:33 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.220 | $3,015 | — (SELL) |
| May 27, 12:58 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.508 | $1,393 | —— |
| May 27, 11:46 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.210 | $1,167 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 26, 09:14 PM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.300 | $2,072 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 26, 09:14 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.260 | $1,742 | — (SELL) |
| May 26, 04:28 PM | Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.849 | $1,505 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 26, 03:50 PM | Will Neymar play in the World Cup? | SELL YES | 0.910 | $3,849 | — (SELL) |
| May 26, 01:26 AM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.140 | $1,071 | — (SELL) |
| May 25, 11:04 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.110 | $1,530 | — (SELL) |
| May 25, 11:03 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.369 | $1,242 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 25, 10:54 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? | BUY NO | 0.118 | $1,241 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 25, 02:55 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.160 | $2,640 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 25, 02:39 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.140 | $2,301 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 24, 04:29 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.310 | $1,828 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 22, 10:18 PM | Will Neymar play in the World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.805 | $1,934 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 22, 12:21 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.720 | $7,041 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 22, 02:20 AM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.900 | $11.6K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 22, 01:20 AM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.518 | $3,366 | —— |
| May 21, 10:45 PM | Will Neymar play in the World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.920 | $17.7K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 21, 06:21 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.290 | $2,548 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 21, 02:24 PM | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | SELL NO | 0.958 | $12.0K | — (SELL) |
| May 20, 10:16 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.230 | $5,011 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 20, 09:09 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.582 | $2,413 | — (SELL) |
| May 20, 09:06 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.760 | $2,768 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 19, 08:51 PM | Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17? | BUY YES | 0.776 | $1,654 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 19, 04:19 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.360 | $1,629 | — (SELL) |
| May 19, 02:49 PM | Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17? | BUY NO | 0.317 | $1,010 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 18, 06:59 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY YES | 0.320 | $3,038 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 18, 11:51 AM | Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? | BUY NO | 0.976 | $3,873 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 15, 06:35 PM | Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15? | BUY YES | 0.960 | $30.4K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 15, 06:35 PM | Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15? | BUY YES | 0.940 | $1,439 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 15, 06:35 PM | Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15? | BUY YES | 0.936 | $41.2K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 15, 06:19 PM | Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15? | BUY NO | 0.210 | $1,032 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 15, 05:01 PM | Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? | BUY NO | 0.990 | $1,066 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 14, 02:59 PM | Will Trump say "Peng" during events with Xi Jinping? | BUY YES | 0.983 | $12.3K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 14, 02:51 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.120 | $2,630 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 14, 02:57 AM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.407 | $5,833 | —— |
| May 12, 11:10 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.645 | $6,073 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 10, 01:21 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.553 | $6,520 | —— |
| May 10, 01:20 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.372 | $1,716 | — (SELL) |
| May 9, 09:19 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.230 | $1,820 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 8, 07:43 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.350 | $4,502 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 8, 06:54 PM | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.590 | $2,642 | —— |
| May 8, 06:52 PM | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.443 | $1,515 | —— |
| May 8, 06:47 PM | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.536 | $1,531 | —— |
| May 8, 05:30 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.766 | $5,024 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 8, 05:24 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.535 | $1,927 | —— |
| May 8, 12:40 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | SELL YES | 0.270 | $1,500 | — (SELL) |
| May 8, 12:03 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.191 | $1,571 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 7, 09:49 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 15? | BUY NO | 0.780 | $3,497 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 7, 09:34 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.310 | $3,529 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 7, 08:38 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.826 | $2,088 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 7, 05:27 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.200 | $1,144 | — (SELL) |
| May 7, 04:29 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.379 | $2,222 | — (SELL) |
| May 7, 03:28 PM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.480 | $1,061 | —— |
| May 7, 03:07 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | BUY YES | 0.380 | $5,590 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 7, 03:04 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.297 | $2,506 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 7, 02:48 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.420 | $4,354 | —— |
| May 7, 02:33 PM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.255 | $1,168 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 6, 02:39 AM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.270 | $2,939 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 6, 02:39 AM | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.259 | $2,192 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 5, 06:00 PM | Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? | BUY NO | 0.943 | $7,583 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 5, 05:25 PM | Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.550 | $1,896 | —— |
| Apr 30, 02:50 AM | Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? | BUY YES | 0.982 | $10.9K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 30, 01:44 AM | Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? | BUY YES | 0.970 | $108.5K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 30, 12:53 AM | Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? | BUY YES | 0.960 | $3,587 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 29, 06:25 PM | Will four or more people dissent the April Fed decision? | BUY NO | 0.979 | $18.2K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 29, 02:00 AM | Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? | BUY NO | 0.067 | $5,666 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Apr 29, 01:02 AM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.430 | $11.7K | —— |
| Apr 28, 08:06 PM | Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? | BUY YES | 0.989 | $14.7K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 28, 07:50 PM | Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? | BUY YES | 0.981 | $3,406 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 28, 07:41 PM | Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? | BUY YES | 0.969 | $22.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 28, 07:41 PM | Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? | BUY YES | 0.960 | $10.5K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 28, 07:41 PM | Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? | BUY YES | 0.942 | $5,573 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 28, 01:36 PM | Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL NO | 0.914 | $44.1K | — (SELL) |
| Apr 28, 01:06 PM | Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.914 | $3,380 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 28, 01:05 PM | Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.913 | $1,084 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 28, 01:05 PM | Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.912 | $1,733 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 28, 01:01 PM | Will Neymar play in the World Cup? | BUY NO | 0.610 | $2,405 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 27, 01:00 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | BUY YES | 0.360 | $2,904 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Apr 27, 12:02 AM | Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? | BUY NO | 0.300 | $1,445 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Apr 21, 10:17 PM | US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.240 | $1,578 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Apr 21, 09:38 PM | US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.400 | $1,365 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 21, 09:27 PM | US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.400 | $1,967 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Apr 21, 09:23 PM | US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.420 | $1,510 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 21, 08:32 PM | US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.335 | $1,182 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Apr 21, 08:16 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.240 | $1,212 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Apr 21, 07:45 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.260 | $5,426 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 21, 07:45 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.270 | $1,758 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 21, 07:35 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.607 | $8,641 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 21, 05:47 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.670 | $1,355 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 21, 05:40 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.277 | $10.1K | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Apr 21, 03:57 PM | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | BUY YES | 0.980 | $31.8K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 21, 03:23 PM | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | BUY YES | 0.969 | $32.5K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 21, 12:55 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.150 | $3,268 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Apr 18, 11:33 PM | 0x5c2e6aef | SELL YES | 0.800 | $4,711 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 18, 06:38 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | BUY YES | 0.390 | $1,939 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Apr 17, 03:11 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | BUY NO | 0.470 | $1,348 | —— |
| Apr 17, 02:51 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | BUY YES | 0.510 | $1,167 | —— |
| Apr 17, 02:45 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | BUY NO | 0.475 | $3,482 | —— |
| Apr 17, 02:16 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | BUY YES | 0.480 | $2,939 | —— |
| Apr 17, 01:57 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | BUY YES | 0.505 | $1,876 | —— |
| Apr 17, 01:34 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | BUY NO | 0.420 | $8,271 | —— |
| Apr 17, 01:25 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | BUY NO | 0.399 | $3,383 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Apr 17, 12:25 AM | 0x9823d715 | BUY YES | 0.997 | $103.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 17, 12:02 AM | 0x9823d715 | BUY YES | 0.997 | $103.8K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 16, 05:59 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.230 | $2,682 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Apr 16, 05:14 PM | 0x9823d715 | BUY YES | 0.850 | $12.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 16, 04:02 PM | 0x9823d715 | BUY YES | 0.860 | $14.4K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 15, 09:43 PM | 0x894a2611 | BUY NO | 0.932 | $2,001 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 15, 09:42 PM | 0x894a2611 | BUY NO | 0.928 | $2,106 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 15, 09:27 PM | 0x894a2611 | BUY NO | 0.850 | $23.3K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 15, 04:05 PM | 0x894a2611 | BUY YES | 0.467 | $4,382 | —— |
| Apr 15, 01:35 PM | 0x894a2611 | BUY YES | 0.220 | $1,837 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Apr 14, 11:27 PM | 0x68beecc8 | BUY NO | 0.905 | $4,812 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 14, 11:26 PM | 0x68beecc8 | BUY NO | 0.891 | $11.3K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 14, 11:26 PM | 0x68beecc8 | BUY NO | 0.885 | $6,168 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 14, 10:38 PM | 0x83b5e51c | BUY NO | 0.876 | $1,532 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 14, 03:20 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.230 | $2,545 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Apr 13, 03:27 AM | 0xdc6f95f9 | BUY YES | 0.187 | $2,013 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Apr 12, 10:03 PM | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | BUY NO | 0.548 | $3,132 | —— |
| Apr 12, 03:37 PM | 0xf8d9cd66 | BUY NO | 0.914 | $26.2K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 10, 11:23 AM | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.929 | $10.3K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 9, 07:00 PM | 0x5c2e6aef | SELL YES | 0.600 | $1,356 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 9, 02:36 PM | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | SELL YES | 0.512 | $3,061 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 9, 02:36 PM | 0x5c2e6aef | BUY YES | 0.628 | $7,472 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 9, 12:31 AM | 0x4c5701bc | BUY YES | 0.997 | $110.8K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 9, 12:31 AM | 0x4c5701bc | BUY YES | 0.997 | $110.8K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 9, 12:14 AM | 0x5c2e6aef | BUY YES | 0.558 | $4,763 | —— |
| Apr 8, 06:20 PM | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | SELL YES | 0.316 | $1,135 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 8, 05:32 PM | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | SELL YES | 0.315 | $1,428 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 8, 05:12 PM | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? | BUY YES | 0.289 | $3,187 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Apr 7, 11:13 PM | 0x4c5701bc | BUY YES | 0.942 | $22.9K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 7, 11:08 PM | 0x773abaa5 | BUY NO | 0.129 | $2,084 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Apr 7, 10:58 PM | 0x4c5701bc | BUY YES | 0.934 | $7,529 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 7, 10:53 PM | 0x4c5701bc | BUY NO | 0.134 | $1,862 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Apr 7, 10:33 PM | 0x773abaa5 | BUY YES | 0.780 | $24.7K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 7, 10:27 PM | 0x4c5701bc | BUY YES | 0.343 | $3,900 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Apr 7, 10:06 PM | 0x4c5701bc | BUY YES | 0.400 | $1,000 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Apr 7, 09:48 PM | 0x4c5701bc | BUY NO | 0.685 | $1,328 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 7, 09:48 PM | 0x4c5701bc | BUY NO | 0.677 | $2,162 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 7, 08:57 PM | 0x773abaa5 | BUY NO | 0.540 | $1,555 | —— |
| Apr 7, 08:16 PM | 0x4c5701bc | SELL YES | 0.140 | $1,700 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 7, 08:05 PM | 0x4c5701bc | BUY YES | 0.109 | $2,736 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Apr 7, 07:46 PM | 0x773abaa5 | BUY YES | 0.280 | $1,677 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Apr 7, 03:02 PM | US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.430 | $4,224 | —— |
| Apr 7, 02:38 PM | 0x4c5701bc | BUY NO | 0.962 | $6,640 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 6, 05:06 PM | 0x4c5701bc | BUY NO | 0.970 | $1,291 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 6, 02:22 AM | US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | BUY YES | 0.280 | $3,084 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |