| Jun 20, 11:26 PM | Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? | BUY NO | 0.656 | $2,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 20, 09:17 PM | Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.756 | $2,500 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 20, 06:57 PM | US strike on Cuba by December 31? | BUY NO | 0.512 | $4,500 | —— |
| Jun 13, 05:24 AM | Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.460 | $2,000 | —— |
| Jun 13, 03:21 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.416 | $2,400 | —— |
| Jun 12, 10:41 PM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.930 | $2,604 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 12, 10:38 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? | SELL NO | 0.972 | $4,087 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 12, 08:46 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? | BUY NO | 0.560 | $1,200 | —— |
| Jun 12, 08:45 PM | Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.109 | $1,069 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 12, 07:59 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.187 | $1,399 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 12, 03:57 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.356 | $1,076 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 12, 02:03 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.350 | $2,400 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 12, 12:14 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? | SELL NO | 0.928 | $1,324 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 11:43 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? | SELL NO | 0.899 | $3,595 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 08:15 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.348 | $2,000 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 11, 08:10 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.400 | $1,110 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 07:42 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.460 | $2,553 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 07:26 PM | Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.590 | $1,003 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 07:23 PM | Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.825 | $2,400 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 07:15 PM | Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.620 | $1,015 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 06:10 PM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.660 | $1,793 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 06:03 PM | Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.657 | $1,499 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 05:53 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? | BUY NO | 0.789 | $2,600 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 05:36 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.128 | $1,236 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 05:35 PM | Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.693 | $4,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 05:34 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.110 | $1,064 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 05:33 PM | Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.742 | $1,450 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 10, 11:21 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.780 | $1,300 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 10, 10:55 PM | Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? | BUY NO | 0.860 | $2,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 10, 10:42 PM | Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? | BUY NO | 0.843 | $2,300 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 10, 10:42 PM | Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? | SELL NO | 0.783 | $2,336 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 10, 09:47 PM | Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? | BUY NO | 0.756 | $1,184 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 10, 09:42 PM | Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.650 | $2,300 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 10, 09:35 PM | Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? | SELL NO | 0.732 | $1,098 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 10, 09:27 PM | Israel closes its airspace by June 15? | BUY NO | 0.718 | $2,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 10, 09:23 PM | Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? | BUY NO | 0.770 | $3,800 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 10, 09:06 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.641 | $2,347 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 10, 08:29 PM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.644 | $3,500 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 10, 08:07 PM | Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.780 | $1,500 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 10, 08:05 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.630 | $2,463 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 10, 07:38 PM | Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? | SELL YES | 0.943 | $3,754 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 10, 06:35 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.661 | $9,263 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 10, 06:19 PM | Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.838 | $1,998 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 10, 06:08 PM | Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? | SELL YES | 0.860 | $5,034 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 10, 06:05 PM | Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.851 | $2,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 8, 07:05 AM | Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | SELL YES | 0.343 | $3,579 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 8, 05:49 AM | Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | BUY YES | 0.297 | $2,000 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Jun 8, 05:48 AM | Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | BUY YES | 0.298 | $2,000 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Jun 8, 05:20 AM | Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | BUY YES | 0.283 | $3,000 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Jun 8, 03:19 AM | Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | SELL YES | 0.610 | $1,333 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 7, 10:10 PM | Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | BUY NO | 0.770 | $1,640 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 7, 10:07 PM | Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | BUY YES | 0.765 | $2,400 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 7, 10:07 PM | Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | BUY YES | 0.750 | $6,600 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 7, 09:59 PM | Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%? | BUY YES | 0.410 | $1,261 | —— |
| Jun 7, 07:34 PM | Iran closes its airspace by June 8? | BUY NO | 0.395 | $2,000 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 7, 07:03 PM | Iran closes its airspace by June 15? | BUY YES | 0.670 | $2,700 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 7, 06:44 PM | Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.750 | $2,100 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 7, 06:42 PM | Iran closes its airspace by July 15? | BUY YES | 0.550 | $1,200 | —— |
| Jun 7, 06:36 PM | Iran closes its airspace by June 15? | BUY YES | 0.480 | $2,000 | —— |
| Jun 7, 06:34 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.690 | $2,800 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 7, 06:33 PM | Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.330 | $1,500 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Jun 7, 05:53 PM | Iran closes its airspace by July 31? | SELL YES | 0.400 | $1,200 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 7, 05:19 PM | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.900 | $3,600 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 6, 05:07 PM | Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.700 | $1,392 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 6, 05:51 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.988 | $4,578 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 5, 06:29 PM | Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.875 | $2,500 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 5, 06:28 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.240 | $1,768 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 4, 12:54 AM | Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? | BUY YES | 0.829 | $2,450 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 3, 08:25 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.250 | $1,600 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Jun 3, 08:19 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.949 | $2,500 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 3, 08:17 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.240 | $2,000 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| Jun 3, 08:13 PM | Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.850 | $1,520 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 3, 06:36 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.500 | $1,500 | —— |
| Jun 2, 11:28 PM | Iran closes its airspace by July 15? | BUY NO | 0.590 | $2,400 | —— |
| Jun 2, 11:28 PM | Iran closes its airspace by July 15? | BUY NO | 0.500 | $1,700 | —— |
| Jun 2, 06:54 PM | Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.920 | $4,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 2, 06:54 PM | Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.916 | $2,300 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 2, 06:39 PM | Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? | BUY NO | 0.444 | $1,800 | —— |
| Jun 2, 06:08 PM | Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.616 | $1,500 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 2, 02:50 PM | Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.673 | $2,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 07:07 PM | Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures? | BUY NO | 0.885 | $2,005 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 04:17 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.817 | $1,700 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 05:31 AM | Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.630 | $1,200 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 31, 11:01 PM | Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.560 | $1,500 | —— |
| May 31, 10:57 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.350 | $1,600 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 31, 10:36 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.296 | $1,050 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 31, 10:02 PM | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.961 | $3,209 | — (SELL) |
| May 31, 10:01 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.160 | $1,610 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 30, 04:12 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? | SELL NO | 0.622 | $1,098 | — (SELL) |
| May 30, 09:47 AM | US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by June 30? | SELL YES | 0.904 | $1,266 | — (SELL) |
| May 29, 09:10 PM | US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.756 | $1,300 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 29, 09:10 PM | US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.635 | $1,500 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 29, 06:50 PM | Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.795 | $2,800 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 27, 10:08 PM | Cuban regime falls in 2026? | SELL NO | 0.783 | $1,947 | — (SELL) |
| May 25, 04:05 AM | Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.096 | $1,064 | — (SELL) |
| May 25, 04:03 AM | Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? | SELL NO | 0.728 | $1,058 | — (SELL) |
| May 25, 04:03 AM | Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? | SELL NO | 0.736 | $1,428 | — (SELL) |
| May 25, 03:55 AM | Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? | SELL NO | 0.759 | $3,663 | — (SELL) |
| May 24, 04:28 AM | Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? | SELL NO | 0.531 | $1,061 | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 11:43 PM | Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.590 | $1,400 | —— |
| May 23, 11:39 PM | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.899 | $4,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 09:40 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.640 | $1,374 | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 09:33 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.580 | $1,500 | —— |
| May 23, 09:13 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.600 | $1,288 | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 08:51 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.610 | $1,164 | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 08:51 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.610 | $1,552 | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 08:37 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.578 | $1,545 | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 08:36 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.625 | $2,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 08:36 PM | Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.847 | $1,200 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 08:36 PM | Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.821 | $1,900 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 08:31 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.608 | $1,797 | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 08:31 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.622 | $1,837 | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 07:32 PM | Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | SELL NO | 0.780 | $1,991 | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 04:20 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.717 | $1,411 | — (SELL) |
| May 21, 05:28 PM | Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? | SELL NO | 0.766 | $2,430 | — (SELL) |
| May 20, 08:32 PM | Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.891 | $1,700 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 20, 07:40 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.210 | $2,000 | 🟡Cheap band — no rep |
| May 20, 06:45 PM | Cuban regime falls in 2026? | BUY NO | 0.788 | $2,500 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 20, 06:43 PM | Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | BUY NO | 0.765 | $3,500 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 20, 03:17 PM | Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.830 | $3,699 | — (SELL) |
| May 20, 01:02 AM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.550 | $2,000 | —— |
| May 19, 09:15 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 21? | SELL NO | 0.799 | $4,104 | — (SELL) |
| May 19, 06:33 PM | Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.859 | $2,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 19, 05:55 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.540 | $1,800 | —— |
| May 19, 12:20 AM | Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.630 | $3,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 18, 11:43 PM | US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.701 | $2,400 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 18, 10:05 PM | Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.379 | $2,000 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 18, 07:32 PM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.949 | $4,500 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 18, 07:18 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.360 | $2,000 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 18, 07:05 PM | Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? | SELL NO | 0.880 | $1,120 | — (SELL) |
| May 18, 07:03 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 21? | BUY NO | 0.809 | $2,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 18, 06:59 PM | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? | SELL NO | 0.740 | $1,517 | — (SELL) |
| May 18, 06:41 PM | US federally charges ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro? | BUY YES | 0.740 | $1,700 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 18, 05:17 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.410 | $1,400 | —— |
| May 18, 04:21 AM | US federally charges ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro? | BUY YES | 0.715 | $3,500 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 17, 09:41 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.250 | $1,103 | — (SELL) |
| May 17, 09:32 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL NO | 0.690 | $1,517 | — (SELL) |
| May 17, 05:43 PM | Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.900 | $1,800 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 16, 08:25 PM | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY NO | 0.700 | $3,580 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 16, 07:13 PM | Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? | SELL NO | 0.620 | $1,225 | — (SELL) |
| May 16, 06:37 PM | Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31? | SELL NO | 0.992 | $1,566 | — (SELL) |
| May 16, 05:04 PM | Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | SELL NO | 0.802 | $2,406 | — (SELL) |
| May 15, 06:53 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.340 | $2,000 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 15, 06:20 PM | Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 16? | SELL YES | 0.900 | $1,330 | — (SELL) |
| May 15, 05:58 PM | Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.850 | $10.6K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 14, 05:28 PM | Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 16? | SELL YES | 0.511 | $1,099 | — (SELL) |
| May 14, 05:28 PM | Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 17? | BUY YES | 0.539 | $1,180 | —— |
| May 13, 09:03 PM | Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.607 | $1,200 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 13, 05:35 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.740 | $2,394 | — (SELL) |
| May 11, 06:25 PM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.957 | $1,216 | — (SELL) |
| May 11, 05:27 PM | Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? | SELL NO | 0.860 | $1,453 | — (SELL) |
| May 10, 08:38 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.630 | $2,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 10, 08:19 PM | Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.795 | $1,650 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 10, 08:16 PM | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.684 | $2,300 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 10, 08:15 PM | Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.758 | $1,600 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 10, 08:14 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.630 | $2,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 10, 08:13 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 15? | SELL NO | 0.840 | $2,652 | — (SELL) |
| May 10, 08:13 PM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.370 | $1,240 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 10, 08:13 PM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.900 | $2,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 10, 08:01 PM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.870 | $1,998 | — (SELL) |
| May 10, 05:56 PM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.829 | $2,500 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 10, 05:55 PM | Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.720 | $1,500 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 9, 09:16 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.836 | $1,254 | — (SELL) |
| May 9, 09:15 PM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.840 | $1,326 | — (SELL) |
| May 9, 05:58 PM | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | SELL YES | 0.990 | $4,178 | — (SELL) |
| May 9, 05:06 PM | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | SELL YES | 0.990 | $1,393 | — (SELL) |
| May 9, 05:05 PM | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.999 | $1,354 | — (SELL) |
| May 9, 05:05 PM | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.999 | $1,354 | — (SELL) |
| May 8, 07:58 PM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.796 | $4,600 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 8, 07:44 PM | Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? | SELL NO | 0.667 | $1,392 | — (SELL) |
| May 8, 07:43 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.360 | $2,000 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 8, 06:53 PM | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.535 | $1,339 | — (SELL) |
| May 8, 06:53 PM | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.562 | $1,892 | — (SELL) |
| May 8, 06:33 PM | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.520 | $3,000 | —— |
| May 8, 06:25 PM | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.470 | $3,000 | —— |
| May 8, 06:25 PM | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | SELL NO | 0.420 | $1,018 | — (SELL) |
| May 8, 12:43 AM | Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.953 | $1,600 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 7, 08:43 PM | Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.669 | $2,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 7, 07:25 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.317 | $1,048 | — (SELL) |
| May 7, 05:57 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.401 | $2,253 | — (SELL) |
| May 7, 05:57 PM | US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? | SELL NO | 0.856 | $3,106 | — (SELL) |
| May 7, 05:41 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 15? | SELL NO | 0.880 | $2,744 | — (SELL) |
| May 7, 05:33 PM | Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.650 | $1,500 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 7, 05:33 PM | Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.629 | $1,555 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 7, 05:27 PM | US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? | BUY NO | 0.838 | $3,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 7, 05:19 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.800 | $2,400 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 7, 04:14 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.712 | $1,200 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 7, 03:30 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.719 | $1,500 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 7, 03:29 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.710 | $2,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 7, 03:29 PM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.325 | $1,400 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 7, 03:25 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.450 | $1,835 | — (SELL) |
| May 7, 03:19 PM | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.424 | $2,200 | —— |
| May 7, 03:14 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.450 | $1,500 | —— |
| May 7, 03:06 PM | Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? | SELL NO | 0.547 | $1,094 | — (SELL) |
| May 7, 01:48 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.256 | $1,722 | — (SELL) |
| May 7, 04:20 AM | Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | SELL YES | 0.378 | $1,489 | — (SELL) |
| May 6, 08:36 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 8? | SELL NO | 0.962 | $5,153 | — (SELL) |
| May 6, 08:34 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.515 | $1,479 | — (SELL) |
| May 6, 07:21 PM | Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.580 | $1,500 | —— |
| May 5, 11:41 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.570 | $1,600 | —— |