| Jun 11, 05:57 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? | SELL YES | 0.603 | $17.7K | — (SELL) |
| Jun 11, 01:47 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.969 | $26.8K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 8, 06:50 AM | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? | BUY NO | 0.737 | $3,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 8, 06:37 AM | Will Iran Play in the World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.966 | $4,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 5, 06:21 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.870 | $14.4K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 5, 06:21 AM | Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.948 | $6,512 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 5, 06:20 AM | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.971 | $7,828 | — (SELL) |
| Jun 2, 11:41 AM | Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? | BUY NO | 0.976 | $24.6K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 2, 06:13 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.860 | $5,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 2, 06:13 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.950 | $5,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 2, 04:03 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.858 | $3,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 2, 04:03 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.950 | $10,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 2, 02:43 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.850 | $2,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 2, 02:43 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.950 | $2,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 2, 02:41 AM | Will Iran Play in the World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.969 | $8,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 06:29 PM | Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? | BUY NO | 0.961 | $11.9K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 06:23 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.859 | $15.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 06:22 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.940 | $15.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 06:18 PM | Will Iran Play in the World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.959 | $4,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 05:12 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.531 | $2,100 | —— |
| Jun 1, 05:04 PM | Will Iran Play in the World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.959 | $1,280 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 01:55 PM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.613 | $5,900 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 01:52 PM | Will Iran Play in the World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.959 | $2,200 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 10:34 AM | Will Iran Play in the World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.959 | $1,360 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 08:06 AM | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.645 | $10.2K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 08:03 AM | Will Iran Play in the World Cup? | BUY YES | 0.963 | $10.9K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 30, 07:55 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.960 | $22.4K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 30, 07:54 AM | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | SELL NO | 0.997 | $22.5K | — (SELL) |
| May 29, 06:00 AM | US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.857 | $28.5K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 29, 05:57 AM | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | SELL NO | 0.992 | $28.6K | — (SELL) |
| May 25, 03:39 PM | Starmer out by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.767 | $5,665 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 03:39 PM | Starmer out by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.741 | $11.4K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 09:46 AM | Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.977 | $5,010 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 25, 09:43 AM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? | SELL YES | 0.998 | $22.2K | — (SELL) |
| May 24, 09:29 PM | Starmer out by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.960 | $10.3K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 24, 09:27 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.733 | $10.4K | — (SELL) |
| May 24, 10:36 AM | Starmer out by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.954 | $11.5K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 24, 10:27 AM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? | SELL YES | 0.998 | $11.6K | — (SELL) |
| May 24, 12:18 AM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? | BUY YES | 0.966 | $4,160 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 24, 12:16 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.380 | $4,125 | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 10:45 AM | Starmer out by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.712 | $21.2K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 10:43 AM | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.950 | $21.5K | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 06:58 AM | Starmer out by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.958 | $11.6K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 06:57 AM | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.950 | $10.8K | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 06:43 AM | Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.783 | $5,379 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 06:42 AM | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.950 | $6,175 | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 06:39 AM | Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.916 | $32.3K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 06:39 AM | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.951 | $32.3K | — (SELL) |
| May 23, 03:33 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.916 | $9,960 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 03:33 AM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? | BUY YES | 0.863 | $10,000 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 03:32 AM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? | BUY YES | 0.753 | $13.5K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 23, 03:15 AM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? | SELL YES | 0.986 | $15.0K | — (SELL) |
| May 22, 04:35 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21? | SELL YES | 0.998 | $18.4K | — (SELL) |
| May 20, 06:47 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? | BUY YES | 0.886 | $13.5K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 20, 06:47 PM | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21? | BUY YES | 0.951 | $17.5K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 20, 06:46 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | SELL NO | 0.950 | $31.1K | — (SELL) |
| May 20, 06:07 AM | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.857 | $6,913 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 20, 06:06 AM | Starmer out by May 19, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.999 | $6,892 | — (SELL) |
| May 15, 05:30 AM | Starmer out by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.860 | $7,167 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 15, 05:29 AM | Starmer out by May 19, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.942 | $6,500 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 15, 05:28 AM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | SELL NO | 0.998 | $13.7K | — (SELL) |
| May 5, 09:28 AM | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.920 | $23.9K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 4, 07:43 PM | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.877 | $23.9K | — (SELL) |
| May 4, 03:44 PM | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.920 | $11.2K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 4, 03:41 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.714 | $9,600 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 3, 03:07 PM | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | BUY NO | 0.910 | $12.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 3, 03:06 PM | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | BUY NO | 0.950 | $13.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 3, 01:51 PM | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30? | SELL NO | 0.992 | $10.6K | — (SELL) |
| Apr 26, 06:55 AM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.624 | $6,184 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 26, 06:54 AM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.999 | $6,181 | — (SELL) |
| Apr 25, 02:04 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.973 | $6,022 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 25, 02:04 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.920 | $12.8K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 25, 02:00 PM | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? | BUY YES | 0.742 | $2,350 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 19, 07:41 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.852 | $18.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 19, 07:27 AM | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30? | BUY NO | 0.936 | $10.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 19, 07:27 AM | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | BUY NO | 0.952 | $10.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 19, 07:16 AM | Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April? | BUY NO | 0.745 | $6,175 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 19, 07:07 AM | Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by April 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.965 | $1,899 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 14, 06:38 PM | Will Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal? | BUY YES | 0.898 | $18.7K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 14, 06:38 PM | Will Liverpool reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal? | BUY NO | 0.895 | $23.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 14, 06:36 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | SELL NO | 0.983 | $41.7K | — (SELL) |
| Apr 3, 06:52 AM | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.870 | $6,968 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 31, 08:42 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | BUY NO | 0.950 | $12.7K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 31, 08:17 PM | 0x895aef0f | SELL NO | 0.998 | $10.9K | — (SELL) |
| Mar 31, 08:15 PM | 0x0af44dde | SELL NO | 0.997 | $1,789 | — (SELL) |
| Mar 27, 09:31 PM | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.800 | $3,499 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 27, 09:29 PM | Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by June 30, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.944 | $3,488 | — (SELL) |
| Mar 23, 11:57 AM | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY NO | 0.772 | $20.8K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Mar 23, 11:56 AM | 0x5a200d7d | SELL NO | 0.875 | $2,121 | — (SELL) |
| Mar 23, 11:48 AM | 0x5a200d7d | SELL NO | 0.803 | $8,570 | — (SELL) |
| Mar 23, 11:48 AM | US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | SELL NO | 0.792 | $10.1K | — (SELL) |