| Jun 11, 09:41 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.720 | $9,246 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 05:35 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.962 | $16.6K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 04:06 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.964 | $5,510 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 11, 03:56 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.963 | $346.8K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 01:33 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.870 | $8,915 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Jun 1, 01:28 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.920 | $61.7K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 31, 08:08 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.993 | $79.4K | — (SELL) |
| May 31, 08:06 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.830 | $13.9K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 31, 02:52 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.810 | $17.5K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 31, 05:34 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.890 | $44.5K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 31, 04:51 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.880 | $70.4K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 30, 12:01 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.968 | $8,195 | — (SELL) |
| May 29, 03:00 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.850 | $5,297 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 28, 07:35 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.870 | $2,401 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 28, 02:19 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.860 | $21.5K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 28, 02:15 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.778 | $1,505 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 27, 12:33 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.470 | $8,203 | —— |
| May 26, 11:20 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.760 | $1,109 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 26, 07:30 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.970 | $11.2K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 26, 08:00 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.610 | $6,222 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 24, 10:51 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.370 | $5,463 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 20, 02:43 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.840 | $6,487 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 20, 02:39 PM | Will Trump and Putin not meet? | SELL YES | 0.892 | $1,006 | — (SELL) |
| May 20, 02:38 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | SELL YES | 0.345 | $1,602 | — (SELL) |
| May 20, 02:38 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | SELL YES | 0.385 | $4,528 | — (SELL) |
| May 20, 02:37 PM | Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL NO | 0.912 | $1,368 | — (SELL) |
| May 19, 08:55 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.890 | $12.1K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 19, 05:01 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.860 | $5,074 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 19, 04:55 AM | Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | SELL NO | 0.860 | $5,090 | — (SELL) |
| May 19, 04:38 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.860 | $1,445 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 18, 06:40 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.760 | $4,940 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 18, 03:05 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.900 | $1,305 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 18, 02:13 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.880 | $2,640 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 18, 11:52 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.720 | $1,742 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 18, 11:36 AM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.850 | $2,890 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 18, 11:34 AM | Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.940 | $9,192 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 18, 11:24 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.750 | $2,279 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 18, 11:18 AM | Iran coup attempt by June 30? | BUY YES | 0.090 | $1,035 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 18, 11:15 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.750 | $1,593 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 18, 10:21 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.760 | $1,520 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 18, 10:04 AM | Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | BUY YES | 0.400 | $2,080 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 18, 08:41 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.760 | $3,572 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 18, 07:57 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.860 | $4,060 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 18, 07:42 AM | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY NO | 0.410 | $1,623 | —— |
| May 18, 07:38 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.760 | $7,144 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 18, 06:44 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.750 | $4,650 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 18, 06:03 AM | Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? | BUY NO | 0.415 | $1,868 | —— |
| May 16, 02:44 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.820 | $7,201 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 15, 09:07 PM | US strike on Cuba by December 31? | BUY YES | 0.403 | $1,283 | —— |
| May 15, 03:51 PM | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.890 | $22.3K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 15, 02:16 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.890 | $122.8K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 15, 02:07 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.996 | $78.9K | — (SELL) |
| May 15, 01:16 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.880 | $72.2K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 14, 03:27 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.994 | $35.8K | — (SELL) |
| May 13, 12:49 PM | Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | BUY NO | 0.850 | $12.6K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 13, 12:45 PM | Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | BUY YES | 0.380 | $4,285 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| May 13, 12:22 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.670 | $43.5K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 11, 08:44 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.790 | $20.1K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 10, 10:06 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.800 | $53.7K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 10, 10:05 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.990 | $23.6K | — (SELL) |
| May 10, 09:46 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.790 | $13.8K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 10, 09:44 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.951 | $45.0K | — (SELL) |
| May 10, 09:42 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.790 | $2,784 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 9, 11:01 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.750 | $12.1K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 9, 08:40 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.710 | $15.6K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 9, 08:36 AM | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | SELL YES | 0.999 | $145.3K | — (SELL) |
| May 8, 11:28 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.920 | $13.8K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 7, 10:51 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.850 | $6,118 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 6, 11:25 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.732 | $28.1K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| May 6, 09:45 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.869 | $3,165 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 27, 12:56 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.981 | $1,259 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 27, 01:24 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.977 | $18.3K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 26, 02:37 PM | Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? | BUY NO | 0.897 | $2,916 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 26, 02:29 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.976 | $4,537 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 23, 03:37 PM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026? | SELL NO | 0.995 | $22.7K | — (SELL) |
| Apr 23, 08:44 AM | US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.884 | $25.0K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 17, 10:06 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.658 | $14.5K | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 17, 10:06 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.746 | $1,835 | 🔴Above conviction band — net-negative |
| Apr 17, 10:06 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.455 | $8,062 | —— |
| Apr 17, 10:06 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.336 | $5,623 | ⚫Killed band — neutral expectation |
| Apr 17, 10:06 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.465 | $13.5K | —— |
| Apr 17, 10:06 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.521 | $15.9K | —— |
| Apr 17, 10:06 AM | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | BUY NO | 0.436 | $10.6K | —— |